Ferrari (RACE) Climbs +21.2% on Strong Q2 and Raised Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Ferrari (RACE) shares climbed roughly 21.2% over the last 30 days, from about $360.14 to $436.54, on the back of a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report and raised full-year guidance.
- The rally was driven by record personalization demand, a richer product mix, and confirmation that the order book extends through the end of 2027.
- Investor sentiment also improved around the Luce, Ferrari's first all-electric model, after its initial 2026 allocation reportedly sold out.
- Over the last quarter the stock has advanced roughly 25%, rebounding sharply from a mid-May trough near $321 as analyst upgrades and multiple compression concerns eased.
- Key watch items include the two remaining 2026 model launches, Luce delivery execution, and the next earnings report scheduled for early November.
Ferrari (RACE) Company Overview and Market Position
Ferrari N.V. designs, engineers, produces, and sells luxury performance sports cars worldwide. The Italian marque, headquartered in Maranello, operates across a portfolio that spans range models, special series, limited-edition supercars such as the F80, track cars, and increasingly personalized one-off commissions. Beyond vehicle sales, the company generates revenue from racing (including Formula 1), spare parts, aftersales and restoration services, brand licensing, and lifestyle merchandise.
Ferrari is widely regarded as one of the strongest brand franchises in the automotive and luxury sectors. Its strategy centers on deliberate scarcity and exclusivity rather than volume growth, which underpins its pricing power and historically high margins. Investors follow the stock for its defensive demand profile, ultra-high-net-worth customer base, and consistent capital returns, while also monitoring its transition toward electrification and new model cadence. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Ferrari (RACE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, Ferrari shares rose approximately 21.2%, moving from a close near $360.14 to $436.54. The advance was uneven rather than linear: the stock pulled back through mid-July before staging a decisive rebound in late July and early August, propelled by second-quarter earnings and guidance.
The broader quarterly picture shows an even stronger recovery. Roughly three months ago, in late May, the shares traded near $349, meaning the stock has gained roughly 25% over the trailing quarter. That rebound is more striking measured from the mid-May trough near $321, a level reached during a period of investor anxiety over the company's growth outlook and its electric-vehicle strategy. The subsequent climb reflects a shift from multiple-driven weakness toward renewed confidence in fundamentals.
What Drove RACE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Ferrari's second-quarter 2026 results, released July 30. The company reported revenue of €1.94 billion, up 8% year over year (11% at constant currency), alongside EBITDA of €755 million and an EBIT margin of 31.2%, all ahead of consensus expectations. Management raised its full-year guidance, lifting the 2026 EBITDA floor to approximately €2.97 billion and citing better-than-expected personalization and a more favorable foreign-exchange environment.
Personalization was a standout theme, representing more than 20% of cars and spare-parts revenue during the quarter, above management's own expectations. Richer mix, including contributions from the F80 and 12Cilindri families, further supported profitability. Crucially, executives confirmed the order book now covers the entirety of 2027, reinforcing demand visibility.
Sentiment around the Luce also improved. Following its launch, the company indicated orders were arriving in line with plans, and reports suggested the initial 2026 allocation of roughly 500 units had been accounted for, with demand extending into 2027. Combined with analyst support—including several firms maintaining or raising price targets after the report—these factors helped sustain the stock's momentum.
What Drove RACE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly story is one of recovery from a de-rating. Through the first half of 2026, Ferrari shares had come under pressure amid concerns tied to its October 2025 capital markets day, softer residual values for hybrid models such as the 296 and SF90, and uncertainty around the electric Luce. Those worries translated into meaningful multiple compression even though earnings revisions were modest.
A turning point arrived in June, when Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight, arguing the selloff had overpriced temporary, product-cycle risks rather than structural brand damage. That reassessment, reinforced by the July earnings beat and guidance increase, set the stage for the strong quarterly advance. Dealer checks cited stabilizing resale values and intact brand desirability, while the confirmation of an order book filled through 2027 gave investors a concrete basis for renewed confidence.
RACE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape Ferrari's trajectory. The two remaining 2026 model launches represent the most immediate product catalysts, with their reception serving as a test of the company's product-cycle reset. Investors will also monitor Luce delivery execution and whether initial order momentum converts into sustained demand without diluting brand exclusivity.
Macroeconomic conditions remain relevant, given the company's exposure to ultra-high-net-worth consumers and currency dynamics, particularly the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. Residual values for hybrid models and the trajectory of personalization penetration will influence margin expectations. Ferrari's next earnings report, scheduled for early November, will offer the next formal update on guidance and demand, while broader developments in tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and luxury-sector spending remain important external variables. From what I see, these elements will be key to sustaining the current momentum.
AI Tools Supporting My Research Process
In my ongoing analysis of names like this, I regularly consult Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to track momentum shifts and compare sector peers. The platform’s data-driven approach provides an additional layer of confirmation alongside traditional fundamentals, helping refine entry and exit considerations without replacing core research.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
RACE's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RACE turned positive on July 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where RACE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RACE as a result. In of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for RACE moved above the 200-day moving average on July 31, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RACE advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 265 cases where RACE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
RACE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RACE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.953) is normal, around the industry mean (9.450). P/E Ratio (40.308) is within average values for comparable stocks, (544.379). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.100) is also within normal values, averaging (2.971). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.945) is also within normal values, averaging (10.278).
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an operator of an automobile company, which engages in the designing, engineering, producing and selling of sports cars
Industry MotorVehicles
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