Ferrari (RACE) Climbs +21.2% on Strong Q2 and Raised Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Ferrari (RACE) shares climbed roughly 21.2% over the last 30 days, from about $360.14 to $436.54, on the back of a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report and raised full-year guidance.
- The rally was driven by record personalization demand, a richer product mix, and confirmation that the order book extends through the end of 2027.
- Investor sentiment also improved around the Luce, Ferrari's first all-electric model, after its initial 2026 allocation reportedly sold out.
- Over the last quarter the stock has advanced roughly 25%, rebounding sharply from a mid-May trough near $321 as analyst upgrades and multiple compression concerns eased.
- Key watch items include the two remaining 2026 model launches, Luce delivery execution, and the next earnings report scheduled for early November.
Ferrari (RACE) Company Overview and Market Position
Ferrari N.V. designs, engineers, produces, and sells luxury performance sports cars worldwide. The Italian marque, headquartered in Maranello, operates across a portfolio that spans range models, special series, limited-edition supercars such as the F80, track cars, and increasingly personalized one-off commissions. Beyond vehicle sales, the company generates revenue from racing (including Formula 1), spare parts, aftersales and restoration services, brand licensing, and lifestyle merchandise.
Ferrari is widely regarded as one of the strongest brand franchises in the automotive and luxury sectors. Its strategy centers on deliberate scarcity and exclusivity rather than volume growth, which underpins its pricing power and historically high margins. Investors follow the stock for its defensive demand profile, ultra-high-net-worth customer base, and consistent capital returns, while also monitoring its transition toward electrification and new model cadence. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Ferrari (RACE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, Ferrari shares rose approximately 21.2%, moving from a close near $360.14 to $436.54. The advance was uneven rather than linear: the stock pulled back through mid-July before staging a decisive rebound in late July and early August, propelled by second-quarter earnings and guidance.
The broader quarterly picture shows an even stronger recovery. Roughly three months ago, in late May, the shares traded near $349, meaning the stock has gained roughly 25% over the trailing quarter. That rebound is more striking measured from the mid-May trough near $321, a level reached during a period of investor anxiety over the company's growth outlook and its electric-vehicle strategy. The subsequent climb reflects a shift from multiple-driven weakness toward renewed confidence in fundamentals.
What Drove RACE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Ferrari's second-quarter 2026 results, released July 30. The company reported revenue of €1.94 billion, up 8% year over year (11% at constant currency), alongside EBITDA of €755 million and an EBIT margin of 31.2%, all ahead of consensus expectations. Management raised its full-year guidance, lifting the 2026 EBITDA floor to approximately €2.97 billion and citing better-than-expected personalization and a more favorable foreign-exchange environment.
Personalization was a standout theme, representing more than 20% of cars and spare-parts revenue during the quarter, above management's own expectations. Richer mix, including contributions from the F80 and 12Cilindri families, further supported profitability. Crucially, executives confirmed the order book now covers the entirety of 2027, reinforcing demand visibility.
Sentiment around the Luce also improved. Following its launch, the company indicated orders were arriving in line with plans, and reports suggested the initial 2026 allocation of roughly 500 units had been accounted for, with demand extending into 2027. Combined with analyst support—including several firms maintaining or raising price targets after the report—these factors helped sustain the stock's momentum.
What Drove RACE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly story is one of recovery from a de-rating. Through the first half of 2026, Ferrari shares had come under pressure amid concerns tied to its October 2025 capital markets day, softer residual values for hybrid models such as the 296 and SF90, and uncertainty around the electric Luce. Those worries translated into meaningful multiple compression even though earnings revisions were modest.
A turning point arrived in June, when Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight, arguing the selloff had overpriced temporary, product-cycle risks rather than structural brand damage. That reassessment, reinforced by the July earnings beat and guidance increase, set the stage for the strong quarterly advance. Dealer checks cited stabilizing resale values and intact brand desirability, while the confirmation of an order book filled through 2027 gave investors a concrete basis for renewed confidence.
RACE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape Ferrari's trajectory. The two remaining 2026 model launches represent the most immediate product catalysts, with their reception serving as a test of the company's product-cycle reset. Investors will also monitor Luce delivery execution and whether initial order momentum converts into sustained demand without diluting brand exclusivity.
Macroeconomic conditions remain relevant, given the company's exposure to ultra-high-net-worth consumers and currency dynamics, particularly the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. Residual values for hybrid models and the trajectory of personalization penetration will influence margin expectations. Ferrari's next earnings report, scheduled for early November, will offer the next formal update on guidance and demand, while broader developments in tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and luxury-sector spending remain important external variables. From what I see, these elements will be key to sustaining the current momentum.
AI Tools Supporting My Research Process
In my ongoing analysis of names like this, I regularly consult Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to track momentum shifts and compare sector peers. The platform’s data-driven approach provides an additional layer of confirmation alongside traditional fundamentals, helping refine entry and exit considerations without replacing core research.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
Momentum Indicator for RACE turns negative, indicating new downward trend
RACE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RACE moved out of overbought territory on August 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RACE turned negative on August 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 17 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RACE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
RACE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 62 cases where RACE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RACE advanced for three days, in 215 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 135 of 265 cases where RACE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RACE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.036) is normal, around the industry mean (8.776). P/E Ratio (38.219) is within average values for comparable stocks, (494.253). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.468) is also within normal values, averaging (2.478). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.547) is also within normal values, averaging (2.589).
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an operator of an automobile company, which engages in the designing, engineering, producing and selling of sports cars
Industry MotorVehicles
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