GET DAILY SIGNALSFirefly Aerospace (FLY) Analyst Consensus Suggests +52% Upside to Reach $37 Target
Key Takeaways
- The central $37 stock price target is the arithmetic mean of six individually verified analyst price targets, rounded from roughly $37.17.
- At a recent close of $24.31, reaching $37 would require upside of about 52%, a substantial move from current levels.
- Verified targets range from $32 (Goldman Sachs, Hold) to $45 (Roth MKM, Buy), reflecting meaningful disagreement on valuation.
- Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) is a Nasdaq-listed space and defense technology company that went public in August 2025.
- Strongest supports include a NASA lunar-services award, a large engine agreement with AST SpaceMobile, rapid revenue growth, and a sizable backlog.
- Biggest risks are continued net losses, negative EBITDA, heavy cash burn, and execution on scaling production.
- For additional context on this ticker, explore its Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings pages.
- Investors seeking systematic, AI-driven market signals may also want to explore Trending AI Robots.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Firefly Aerospace is covered by a broad analyst bench, with aggregators reporting roughly 11 analysts and a consensus rating of Buy or Moderate Buy. The average analyst price target reported by third-party services sits in the mid-to-high $30s, generally between about $36 and $38. For this analysis, six individually attributable targets were verified: KeyBanc at $35 (Overweight, trimmed from $50 in early November 2026), Goldman Sachs at $32 (Hold), Barclays at $34 (Hold, initiated in October 2026), Morgan Stanley at $37 (Hold), Roth MKM at $45 (Buy), and B. Riley at $40 (Buy, lowered from $50). I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The arithmetic mean of those six targets is roughly $37.17, rounded to a central $37. The spread of $32 to $45 is unusually wide and signals a genuine debate: bullish analysts emphasize contract momentum and long-term revenue visibility, while more cautious analysts weigh near-term losses, valuation, and production execution risk against the company's growth narrative.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Firefly Aerospace shares closed at $24.31 on November 9, 2026, after a sharp two-day rally of more than 50% off a 52-week low of $14.45 set days earlier. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of $62.17, reached in May 2026. Reaching the $37 central target implies roughly 52% upside, a substantial climb that would still leave shares far short of their prior peak.
The company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $287 million, up roughly 179% year over year, but it remains unprofitable, with a GAAP net loss of $92.3 million in its most recent quarter and a negative P/E ratio. A path toward $37 would likely require sustained contract execution, continued revenue scaling, and progress toward positive margins and EBITDA.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Contract momentum: NASA selected Firefly as a vendor under its CLPS 2 lunar-services program, and the company signed a more than $1.3 billion rocket-engine agreement with AST SpaceMobile covering 27 Miranda and 9 Vera engines.
- Revenue growth: Quarterly revenue rose more than 650% year over year, with management guiding 2026 revenue of roughly $420 million to $450 million and reporting a $1.5 billion backlog.
- Visibility: A large share of 2026 midpoint revenue was already booked, underpinning near-term demand.
- Analyst posture: The prevailing Buy/Moderate Buy consensus and several maintained Buy ratings reflect confidence in the company's national-security and commercial positioning.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Profitability gap: Persistent net losses, negative EBITDA, and negative earnings per share mean the valuation rests on future execution rather than current cash generation.
- Valuation sensitivity: Several firms trimmed targets recently, citing revised discount rates, revenue growth assumptions, and lower future P/E expectations.
- Execution risk: Scaling engine production and meeting delivery pacing on large multi-year contracts remain unproven.
- Volatility: The stock's wide 52-week range and large single-day swings reflect high sensitivity to news, sentiment, and sector rotation in the space economy.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The shares recently recovered above the $20 psychological level and moved back above their 20-day and 60-day moving averages, a constructive shift after testing the $14.45 low. Overhead, the $62.17 record high stands as a distant longer-term reference, while intermediate resistance sits near the mid-$30s zone that aligns with much of the analyst range. A sustained move toward $37 would require holding above the $20 area, which now acts as a nearby support level.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms may use different assumptions. Investors tracking the path toward the central target should monitor quarterly earnings and guidance, progress and margin trends on the AST SpaceMobile engine contract, further NASA and defense awards, analyst target revisions, and broader interest-rate and risk sentiment that affects high-growth, early-stage space companies. From what I see, this is important because execution milestones will likely drive whether the target is approached.
Using AI Tools for Additional Insight
Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals use artificial intelligence to continuously monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on changing market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis. The tool is designed to help traders discover opportunities, monitor existing positions, and spot shifting trends more efficiently than manual screening. For investors following Firefly Aerospace and other high-volatility names, this kind of systematic signal can complement fundamental research and technical review.
Final Assessment
The $37 central target for Firefly Aerospace represents a roughly 52% move above the latest close and is drawn from the mean of six verified analyst price targets spanning $32 to $45. Support stems from major contract wins, rapid revenue growth, and a sizable backlog, while the principal obstacles are continued losses, heavy cash burn, and unproven production scale-up. The wide target range underscores genuine disagreement about how richly to value a fast-growing but still-unprofitable space and defense company. Whether shares approach $37 will likely depend on execution milestones, margin progress, and the durability of recently announced commercial and government awards rather than on any single forecast.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools for Research
In my own analysis of names like FLY, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to test systematic approaches alongside traditional research. These tools help simulate strategies and identify patterns across volatile sectors without replacing core due diligence. It is a practical way to add another layer of data when evaluating high-growth opportunities in space and defense.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FLY in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026
FLY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 10 of 11 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FLY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 5 of 8 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FLY as a result. In 14 of 17 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FLY just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 6 of 8 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +60.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FLY advanced for three days, in 53 of 58 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for FLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 4 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
FLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FLY entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.842) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-4.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.751) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a holding company, which through its subsidiaries engages in the business of aircraft leasing
Industry AerospaceDefense
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