First Horizon (FHN) vs. Associated Banc-Corp (ASB): What Their Q1 Earnings Could Reveal for Regional Banks
Key Takeaways
- First Horizon (FHN) reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with consensus EPS of $0.49 and revenue of $869 million.
- Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) follows on April 23, analysts expecting EPS around $0.69 amid 5-6% loan growth guidance.
- Both regional banks showed strong Q4 2025 results: FHN EPS $0.52 (beat), NII $676 million; ASB EPS $0.80, record NII $310 million.
- FHN boasts larger scale with $84 billion assets vs. ASB's $45 billion, but ASB delivered higher ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, a profitability measure) over 15%.
- NIM (net interest margin, the spread between interest income and funding costs) stable at 3.5% for FHN and 3.06% for ASB in Q4.
- Guidance points to continued growth: ASB eyes 5.5-6.5% full-year NII rise; both benefit from deposit stability and C&I (commercial and industrial) loan momentum.
Why These Earnings Reports Matter for Regional Banks
Quarterly earnings continue to serve as a vital benchmark for regional banks such as Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) and First Horizon (FHN), especially as they navigate shifting interest rates and broader economic pressures. Both banks focus on the Midwest and Southeast markets, with activities spanning commercial banking, consumer lending, and wealth management. In my view, FHN's larger footprint—$84 billion in assets—provides meaningful diversification, while ASB's $45 billion asset base leverages deep Wisconsin roots and robust deposit growth. Comparing their upcoming Q1 2026 results will shed light on their progress in net interest income growth, credit quality, and operational efficiency—factors that matter a great deal for investors assessing stability and yield in the regional banking space.
A Closer Look at First Horizon
First Horizon (FHN) is set to release its Q1 2026 results on April 15 before the market opens, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET. Analysts anticipate EPS of $0.49, up from $0.43 year-over-year, alongside revenue around $869 million and net interest income near $658 million. The bank's Q4 2025 performance laid a strong foundation: EPS came in at $0.52, beating estimates by $0.06, with revenue of $892 million and NII at $676 million, up slightly quarter-over-quarter. NIM held steady at 3.51%, and ROTCE reached 15%. Loans grew to $64 billion, up 2% quarter-over-quarter, while deposits stood at $67.5 billion. Key areas to watch include deposit costs, which fell to 2.53% in Q4, along with mortgage warehouse lending and credit metrics, where net charge-offs remained low. For full-year 2025, net income available to common shareholders rose 29% to $956 million.
Associated Banc-Corp's Position
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) will report Q1 2026 earnings on April 23 after the market close, with a conference call at 4 p.m. CT. Consensus estimates point to EPS of $0.69, supported by 2026 guidance excluding acquisitions: 5-6% loan and deposit growth, NII growth of 5.5-6.5%, and noninterest income up 4-5%. Q4 2025 was a standout, delivering record EPS of $0.80, NII of $310 million (up 15% annually), NIM of 3.06%, and ROTCE over 15%. Loans expanded to $31.2 billion, up 5% year-over-year, core deposits reached $29.6 billion (up 3% YoY), and total assets hit $45.2 billion. Commercial and industrial loans led the way with 11% YoY growth, provisions dropped to $7 million, and net charge-offs were just 3 basis points. Full-year earnings set a record at $463 million.
Comparing Their Earnings and Market Profiles
FHN holds an advantage in scale, with a market cap around $11.5 billion compared to ASB's $5 billion; assets of $84 billion versus $45 billion; loans of $64 billion against $31 billion; and deposits of $67 billion versus $36 billion. This size supports diversified revenue streams but also introduces wider risks, such as mortgage exposure. ASB stands out with stronger profitability—2025 EPS of $2.77 versus FHN's $1.89, plus elevated ROTCE—and more agile growth driven by its C&I focus. Both have stabilized NIM in the face of rate cuts—3.51% for FHN and 3.06% for ASB—with deposit betas easing. Credit quality remains solid across the board: low net charge-offs at around 16 basis points for FHN (excluding purchased credit deteriorated) and 12 basis points annually for ASB. Market sentiment often favors FHN's scale for potential M&A interest, yet ASB's efficiency, with guided expense growth of 3%, suggests meaningful upside. Risks like an economic slowdown could pressure loans, but CET1 ratios of 10.6% for FHN and 10% for ASB offer solid buffers. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how these stocks stack up against peers in the sector.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for uncovering stocks and ETFs through filters on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and predictive signals. It scans thousands of instruments using criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, surfacing trade ideas, trending names, breakouts, and hidden opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods. This has helped me spot edges in banking names like ASB and FHN—worth exploring if you're digging into regional banks.
My Take from Tickeron AI
From what I see in Tickeron AI's analysis, it gives ASB a slight edge (~60% probability) due to its superior earnings quality with higher EPS and ROTCE, consistent NII records, and strong growth positioning—though FHN's scale provides a buffer in volatile times. I'm watching this closely as their reports unfold.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ASB's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ASB moved out of oversold territory on September 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 58 cases where ASB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASB advanced for three days, in 177 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
ASB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASB as a result. In 58 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
ASB moved below its 50-day moving average on September 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 31, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 35%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASB entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 25 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.005) is normal, around the industry mean (1.321). P/E Ratio (10.126) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.015). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.340) is also within normal values, averaging (1.186). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.203) is also within normal values, averaging (3.747).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ASB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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