FNB vs. HOMB: Which Regional Bank Will Deliver Stronger Q1 2026 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
- Both FNB and HOMB are set to report Q1 2026 earnings soon, with HOMB on April 15 after market close and FNB on April 16.
- Analysts project HOMB Q1 EPS at $0.59 and revenue around $274 million; FNB at $0.38 EPS and $454 million in revenue.
- HOMB boasts superior profitability with ROE (return on equity) of 11.52% TTM versus FNB's 8.65%, and higher ROA (return on assets) at 2.10% vs. 1.14%.
- FNB's scale stands out with ~$50 billion in assets and record 2025 revenue of $1.8 billion, compared to HOMB's ~$20-25 billion assets and $1.07 billion TTM revenue.
- Recent Q4 2025 results: FNB operating EPS $0.50 (beat estimates), NII (net interest income) $365 million; HOMB EPS $0.60 (met estimates), revenue $282 million.
- Both maintain strong capital positions; FNB CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1, a key measure of core capital) at 11.4%, asset quality solid with low non-performers.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
I've been keeping a close eye on regional banks like FNB and HOMB, as they navigate a landscape influenced by interest rates, loan demand, and deposit costs. These two operate in overlapping Mid-Atlantic and Southern markets, with a focus on commercial, consumer, and real estate lending. Their upcoming Q1 2026 earnings reports will provide critical insights into net interest margin (NIM), loan and deposit growth amid economic changes, and the durability of fee income. From what I see, investors are particularly focused on indicators of credit quality, expense management, and returns to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. Both have hit notable milestones—FNB crossing $50 billion in assets and HOMB ranking #2 among top U.S. public banks by performance—which makes this comparison especially relevant right now.
A Closer Look at Home BancShares (HOMB)
Home BancShares, the parent of Centennial Bank, will release its Q1 2026 earnings on April 15 after market close, with a conference call the next day on April 16. Analysts expect EPS of $0.59, up about 5% year-over-year from $0.56, alongside revenue of around $274 million. This reflects modest growth with a stable NIM near 4.6% based on recent quarters. In Q4 2025, they posted EPS of $0.60, meeting estimates, with revenue of $282 million that beat by 3.5%, and full-year net income rose 18% to $475 million. Standout factors included NIM expansion to 4.61%, an efficiency ratio of 39.5%, and solid loan growth. Their recent acquisition of Mountain Commerce Bancorp added about $1.8 billion in assets, strengthening their footprint in Florida and Tennessee. One thing that stands out for me is how investors will be watching deposit betas and non-interest income following this M&A activity.
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) in Focus
FNB, based in Pittsburgh, has its Q1 2026 results slated for April 16 after the close, followed by a call on April 17. The consensus points to EPS of $0.38 and revenue of $454 million. Coming off a strong Q4 2025, where operating EPS hit $0.50 and beat the $0.41 estimate, with record NII of $365 million at a NIM of 3.28% and full-year revenue of $1.8 billion, FNB demonstrated resilience. Loans grew 3.4% year-over-year to an average of $35 billion, deposits increased 4.5% to $38.6 billion, CET1 climbed to 11.4%, ROTCE reached 16%, and efficiency improved. With total assets now over $50 billion, they're investing in advanced tech like AI to boost efficiency. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how FNB stacks up against peers. Key areas to monitor include consumer loan momentum, provisions for credit losses (which fell to $19 million in Q4), and any tax credit effects.
Head-to-Head: Earnings and Market Comparison
In profitability metrics, HOMB has the edge with ROE at 11.52% versus FNB's 8.65%, ROA at 2.10% against 1.14%, and a stronger NIM around 4.6% compared to FNB's 3.28%, which supports its higher TTM EPS of $2.41 over FNB's $1.56. FNB, however, brings greater scale with a market cap of about $6.3 billion to HOMB's $5.7 billion, assets exceeding $50 billion versus HOMB's smaller ~$20-25 billion footprint, and more revenue volume plus diversification through wealth and insurance units. Growth comes from HOMB's M&A push versus FNB's organic expansion in consumer and commercial lending. Both face risks from commercial real estate (CRE) exposure and deposit competition, but they show low net charge-offs (NCOs) and non-performing assets (NPAs). Market sentiment tilts toward HOMB's history of beating estimates, while FNB's capital position—with a 90% loan-to-deposit ratio—suggests stability. Their market caps capture this balance in a rising rate setting.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for uncovering stocks and ETFs through technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals. It lets me scan thousands of names with custom filters like industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics—far more efficiently than manual methods. Whether spotting trade ideas, trending stocks, or breakouts in banking or other sectors, it supports data-driven choices across assets. I find it invaluable for comparisons like this one.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI gives HOMB a 60% probability favorability, highlighting its stronger earnings quality with consistent beats, better ROE/ROA, robust NIM, and M&A momentum that currently outpace FNB's scale advantages—though FNB still suits conservative strategies well. In my view, this aligns with the trends I'm tracking.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FNB sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 02, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for FNB moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 42 of the 56 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FNB's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +1.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FNB advanced for three days, in 164 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
FNB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FNB as a result. In 51 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FNB turned negative on September 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FNB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for FNB entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.907) is normal, around the industry mean (1.321). P/E Ratio (10.375) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.015). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.530) is also within normal values, averaging (1.186). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.524) is also within normal values, averaging (3.747).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FNB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a regional bank
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