GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) Climbs +36% on Crypto Rebound
Key Takeaways
- CONL has climbed roughly +36% over the trailing 30 days, reflecting its 2x daily leveraged exposure to Coinbase (COIN) stock.
- The rally tracked a sharp rebound in cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin recovering from its 2026 trading range and pushing toward $80,000.
- Regulatory optimism was a key catalyst, after the White House urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, a digital-asset market-structure bill.
- As a leveraged single-stock ETF, CONL compounds daily returns and amplifies both gains and losses versus its underlying holding.
- The trailing quarter has been volatile rather than one-directional, with CONL swinging from roughly $7 to about $4 before recovering.
Understanding the GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL)
The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) is a leveraged, single-stock exchange-traded fund that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to 200% (2x) of the daily percentage change in the common stock of Coinbase Global. Rather than holding a diversified basket, the fund is built around one underlying position, using Coinbase shares and total return swaps to deliver its leveraged daily exposure.
Because the fund resets its leverage each trading day, its returns over periods longer than a single session can diverge meaningfully from a simple two-times multiple of Coinbase's cumulative move, a process often described as volatility decay or compounding. The net expense ratio is 1.04% (gross 1.15%), which is relatively modest for a leveraged product but still a drag on long-term performance.
This concentrated structure means CONL's behavior is almost entirely a function of Coinbase's stock price, which in turn is driven by cryptocurrency trading activity, digital-asset prices, and the regulatory environment. When Coinbase rallies, CONL can move roughly twice as fast; when Coinbase falls, the losses are amplified to the same degree. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
CONL Price Performance: Last 30 Days Versus the Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, CONL has risen approximately +36%, recovering from a level near $4.09 to around $5.57. The advance was not smooth: the fund posted several multi-percentage-point daily swings as cryptocurrency prices and sentiment shifted rapidly.
The trailing quarter tells a more complex story. Roughly 90 days ago, CONL traded near $5.26, implying a net gain of only about +6% over that longer window. That modest headline figure masks exceptional volatility. CONL started the period near $7, sold off sharply through late July and early August toward $4 amid a weak cryptocurrency tape and a disappointing Coinbase earnings report, and then staged a powerful recovery. The result was a wide, range-bound trading pattern rather than a clean, persistent trend.
Drivers Behind the Recent 30-Day Move in CONL
The 30-day surge was powered primarily by a sharp rebound in digital assets. Bitcoin broke out of the roughly $60,000-to-$70,000 range that had defined much of 2026, climbing above $80,000, while Ethereum also rallied strongly. Higher asset prices tend to lift trading volumes and fee income for exchanges such as Coinbase, the sole driver of CONL's returns.
Regulatory developments added a second catalyst. A White House meeting in which President Trump urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act—legislation that would clarify the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets—improved sentiment across the crypto-equity complex. Coinbase shares, and crypto-linked peers including Strategy (MSTR), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL), all rallied on the news.
Institutional activity reinforced the move. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $606 million of net inflows on a single day in late August, and several banks raised price targets on Coinbase, citing improving market conditions and the company's growing non-trading revenue. The combination of higher Bitcoin prices, renewed regulatory optimism, and analyst upgrades drove Coinbase higher—and CONL, with its 2x leverage, amplified that move. From what I see, this interplay between macro factors and company-specific news is worth monitoring closely.
Performance Drivers Over the Past Quarter
The broader three-month picture reflects a period of crypto-sector stress followed by recovery. Coinbase's second-quarter results, reported in late July, showed net revenue down about 19% year over year to $1.22 billion and a net loss, as lower crypto prices and reduced spot trading volumes pressured transaction fees. The stock sold off sharply, dragging CONL from roughly $7 toward $4.
That downdraft was followed by a rotation back into risk assets as Bitcoin stabilized and then broke higher, helped by a more constructive policy backdrop and renewed institutional inflows. Even so, the net quarterly change remained modest, underscoring how much of the period was spent retracing losses rather than establishing new highs. For a leveraged daily-reset product, this back-and-forth pattern is notable because volatility itself tends to erode compounded returns over time.
Key Themes to Watch for CONL Going Forward
Several themes are likely to shape CONL's path in the coming months. First is the direction of Bitcoin and broader crypto prices: as Coinbase's transaction revenue remains sensitive to trading activity, sustained momentum or renewed weakness in digital assets will flow directly into the ETF. Second is the policy calendar, including progress on the CLARITY Act and the evolving division of oversight between the SEC and CFTC, which could influence institutional participation and asset listings.
Macroeconomic conditions matter as well. Interest rate expectations and inflation trends affect risk appetite for high-beta assets, while capital flows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs offer a gauge of institutional demand. On the company level, investors should monitor Coinbase's subscription and services revenue, stablecoin income, and market share, which have been growing relative to core trading fees. Finally, because CONL resets its leverage daily, prolonged volatility can erode returns independent of Coinbase's direction—a structural risk that leveraged ETF holders should understand before committing capital. I'm watching this closely as the policy landscape evolves.
Exploring Broader Market Opportunities with AI Tools
In my analysis of leveraged products like CONL, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered tools to cross-check patterns and compare opportunities across sectors. One resource I find particularly useful is the AI Screener, which helps surface comparable names based on technicals, fundamentals, and performance metrics. It provides a structured way to evaluate leveraged ETFs alongside other themes without relying solely on manual review.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
CONL sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On September 14, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for CONL moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 50 of the 55 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CONL as a result. In 68 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CONL moved above its 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CONL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +22.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CONL advanced for three days, in 200 of 213 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 140 of 147 cases where CONL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CONL moved out of overbought territory on August 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CONL turned negative on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 32 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 84%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CONL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
CONL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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