GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) Delivers +56% Gain Over 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- CONL gained roughly 56% over the past 30 days as a sharp Bitcoin rebound and a wave of crypto-friendly policy headlines lifted Coinbase, the fund's only underlying equity holding.
- Over the past quarter, the fund is up approximately 16%, reflecting a two-phase move: a steep summer selloff followed by a powerful late-August recovery.
- As a 2x daily leveraged single-stock ETF, CONL resets its 200% exposure each trading day and can diverge materially from 2x Coinbase's cumulative return over longer holding periods.
- Primary catalysts include a Bitcoin rally past $70,000, a proposed SEC token framework, a White House crypto summit, and expectations around the CLARITY Act.
- The fund's equity exposure is concentrated in a single name, making it highly sensitive to cryptocurrency prices, trading volumes, and regulatory developments.
Understanding the GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL)
The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 2 times (200%) the daily percentage change of the common stock of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN). Launched in August 2022, it is an actively managed, single-stock leveraged ETF that obtains its exposure primarily through total-return swap agreements and options on Coinbase, supplemented by cash and U.S. Treasury collateral.
Because the strategy targets a single underlying stock, the fund's portfolio is effectively concentrated in one position. Its reported holdings consist of roughly 20 instruments, dominated by Coinbase equity swaps and collateral, with the equity exposure concentrated in the financial-services and cryptocurrency-exchange segment. The fund carries a net expense ratio of approximately 1.04% and is non-diversified. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
This structure explains the ETF's behavior: daily 2x leverage amplifies Coinbase's moves in both directions, while the daily reset means compounding and volatility can cause long-term returns to diverge from a simple doubling of the underlying stock's performance. When Coinbase trends higher, as it has recently, CONL's leveraged exposure can generate outsized gains.
CONL Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, CONL climbed from roughly $4.16 to about $6.48, a gain of approximately 56%. The move was not gradual; it was concentrated in a short, high-volume breakout during the second half of August, punctuated by periods of consolidation and sharp intraday swings.
The quarterly picture is more muted. Roughly three months ago, the fund traded near $5.61, implying a quarter-to-date gain of about 16%. That result masks a volatile path: a prolonged slide into June and July, a near-term bottom in early August, and then a sharp reversal. The divergence between the 30-day surge and the more modest quarterly advance reflects how leveraged, daily-reset products can experience dramatic short-term moves within a longer, choppier trend.
What Drove CONL Higher in the Last 30 Days
The fund's recent rally was driven almost entirely by a recovery in Coinbase, which in turn tracked a rebound in the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 and briefly approached $77,000, while Ethereum posted a substantial short-term gain, lifting trading activity and investor sentiment across digital-asset platforms.
Several policy and market developments reinforced the move. A proposed SEC rulemaking framework for token offerings, a White House crypto summit attended by Coinbase management, and renewed momentum behind the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act all reduced perceived regulatory risk. A U.S. Treasury announcement to expand long-dated bond buybacks also supported risk assets by easing liquidity expectations. A record wave of short liquidations across cryptocurrency derivatives, reportedly the largest since 2021, added further buying pressure.
Crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase, outperformed Bitcoin during the rebound. Coinbase's improving business mix provided fundamental support: the company reported its 14th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, with subscriptions and services revenue approaching half of net revenue and a record share of overall crypto trading volume.
What Shaped CONL Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly trend reflects a broader rotation within the digital-asset ecosystem. During June and July, Coinbase and the wider crypto complex weakened amid softer trading volumes, regulatory uncertainty, and a risk-off tilt across growth-oriented equities. A second-quarter earnings report that missed revenue and earnings estimates triggered a sharp single-session decline in Coinbase in late July, pushing the stock toward a 52-week low and dragging CONL down with it.
The subsequent recovery was driven less by near-term earnings than by a shift in the macro and regulatory narrative: improving liquidity expectations, a softening in long-term Treasury yields, and progress toward clearer U.S. digital-asset rules. Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also strengthened, reinforcing demand for crypto-exposed equities. Because CONL magnifies Coinbase's daily moves, this rotation produced an outsized rebound in the fund relative to the underlying stock's cumulative gain.
CONL ETF Outlook: Factors to Monitor
The most important variable for CONL remains the direction of Coinbase, which is in turn tied to cryptocurrency prices, trading volumes, and regulation. Investors should monitor whether Bitcoin can hold its recent gains, since sustained price levels typically support transaction volumes and platform engagement that drive Coinbase's revenue.
Regulatory developments are equally significant. The pending CLARITY Act and the SEC's token rulemaking effort could reshape the operating environment for U.S. digital-asset exchanges. Clearer rules may reduce compliance risk and expand product opportunity, while delays or an unfavorable outcome could reintroduce volatility.
Macroeconomic conditions also matter. Interest-rate expectations, inflation trends, and overall liquidity influence risk appetite for crypto-linked equities. Finally, because CONL is a leveraged, daily-reset product, volatility itself is a structural consideration: prolonged choppiness can erode value through compounding even if the underlying stock's cumulative return is flat or modestly positive. These factors, rather than any single day's price action, are likely to define the fund's trajectory in the months ahead.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener for ETF Research
In my own workflow I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare leveraged products like CONL against peers on volatility, momentum, and sector exposure. The platform lets me scan for technical patterns and AI signals in one place, which helps surface context I might otherwise miss when evaluating single-stock ETFs.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
CONL's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
CONL moved above its 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +31.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CONL advanced for three days, in 201 of 214 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 140 of 147 cases where CONL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CONL as a result. In 73 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CONL turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 33 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CONL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
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