IBM (IBM) Delivers Q2 2026 Earnings: +1% Revenue Growth with Software Momentum
Key Takeaways
- IBM reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $17.2 billion, up 1% year over year.
- GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $2.27, down 2% from the prior year.
- Operating (non-GAAP) earnings per share rose 5% to $2.93.
- Software revenue grew 5% to $7.8 billion, while Infrastructure revenue fell 7% to $3.8 billion.
- The company updated full-year 2026 constant-currency revenue growth expectations to a range of 4% to 5%.
- Free cash flow for the first half of the year was $4.8 billion, flat year over year.
Putting the Quarter in Context
IBM’s second-quarter results reflect ongoing shifts in its business mix as the company invests heavily in artificial intelligence capabilities. Software and consulting segments continue to drive the majority of revenue, while infrastructure faces cyclical pressures. The quarter’s performance provides investors with insight into IBM’s ability to execute on its AI strategy amid changing client spending patterns and macroeconomic conditions. Strong free cash flow generation and a consistent dividend also underscore the company’s financial discipline. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What IBM Actually Reported
IBM reported total revenue of $17.2 billion for the second quarter of 2026, representing a 1% increase from the same period in 2025. GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.27, down 2% year over year. Operating (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share increased 5% to $2.93. Software revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 5%, driven by growth in hybrid cloud and data offerings. Consulting revenue was flat at $5.3 billion. Infrastructure revenue declined 7% to $3.8 billion, primarily due to lower IBM Z mainframe sales. The company generated $2.6 billion in net cash from operating activities and $2.5 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. IBM also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.69 per share. From what I see, the contrast between the software gains and infrastructure softness stands out clearly in these figures.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
IBM shares experienced volatility following the earnings release, reflecting investor focus on the revenue miss relative to earlier expectations and the lowered full-year growth outlook. Analysts noted the contrast between solid software performance and weakness in infrastructure. The updated guidance signaled caution on near-term growth while emphasizing long-term AI investments. Market participants are closely watching how IBM’s go-to-market adjustments and productivity initiatives will influence future quarters.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
IBM lowered its full-year 2026 constant-currency revenue growth target to a range of 4% to 5%, citing revenue headwinds late in the second quarter. The company continues to expect free cash flow to increase by about $1 billion year over year and anticipates improved pre-tax income margin expansion.
Investors should monitor progress in high-growth software areas such as Red Hat, watsonx, and automation offerings. Infrastructure trends, particularly in distributed systems and storage, will remain important given recent order backlog growth.
Management highlighted actions to expand sales coverage, invest in specialized talent, and accelerate productivity through AI and automation. These initiatives are intended to support revenue acceleration and margin improvement over time.
Additional areas of focus include the impact of recent acquisitions, quantum computing investments, and overall client demand for AI-ready solutions as enterprises move from experimentation to scaled deployments.
Using AI Tools to Refine the Analysis
In reviewing results like these, I often find it helpful to run quick comparisons across peers and historical patterns. One tool I turn to for this is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. I find this approach keeps the focus on data rather than headlines alone.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
IBM in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026
IBM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 21 of 30 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IBM as a result. In 42 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IBM turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 37 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
The 10-day moving average for IBM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
IBM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 14 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBM advanced for three days, in 248 of 377 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 172 of 264 cases where IBM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.035) is normal, around the industry mean (7.462). P/E Ratio (19.598) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.645). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.087) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). IBM has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.031) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (3.271) is also within normal values, averaging (141.758).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. IBM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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