Infosys (INFY) Q4 FY26 Earnings Preview: Guidance Raised Amid AI Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q4 FY26 revenue of approximately $4.98 billion (₹46,364 crore), implying modest sequential growth from Q3's $5.1 billion.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.21 per share, in line with recent quarterly trends and FY26 guidance.
- Company recently raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 3.0%-3.5% in constant currency following strong Q3 large deal wins of $4.8 billion (57% net new).
- Key focus areas include AI-driven demand via Infosys Topaz, deal momentum, and operating margins amid labor code impacts.
- Earnings scheduled for April 23, 2026, after market close, with conference call to follow.
Earnings Context and Why This Report Matters
As Infosys (INFY), a global leader in digital services and consulting, closes out FY26 (April 1, 2025 - March 31, 2026) with its Q4 results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, I'm paying close attention. This report comes at the end of a year marked by steady recovery in IT spending, supported by AI adoption and strong large deal conversions. In Q3, the company delivered 0.6% sequential constant currency (CC) revenue growth to $5,099 million, along with $4.8 billion in large deals, which led to an upward revision of FY26 revenue guidance to 3.0%-3.5% CC. With macroeconomic headwinds easing, yet discretionary spending remaining soft, investors like me are watching to gauge the trajectory into FY27, potential dividend moves, and sustained AI momentum in a sector crowded with competitors like TCS and HCLTech.
What to Expect from Q4 Results
Wall Street is looking for Q4 revenue of ₹463.64 billion (~$4.98 billion at current rates), a slight uptick from Q3's ₹45,479 crore ($5,099 million), in keeping with seasonal patterns and the full-year CC growth target of 3%-3.5%. The EPS consensus sits at $0.21 (basic reported Q3: $0.18; adjusted $0.21), backed by 20%-22% operating margin guidance (Q3 adjusted: 21.2%).
From what I see in historical patterns, reactions can be volatile: Q3 beat EPS estimates ($0.21 vs. $0.20 expected), but the stock dipped due to cautious guidance; earlier beats pushed gains up to 10%. Key items on my radar include large deal total contract value (Q3: $4.8B), updates on AI projects (4,600+ ongoing), and the FY27 outlook. Risks to consider are CC headwinds from rupee strength and rising subcontractor costs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how INFY stacks up against industry peers on key metrics.
Market Sentiment Ahead of Earnings
Sentiment heading into Q4 feels cautiously optimistic, thanks to the Q3 guidance upgrade and $4.8B in deals that point to recovering demand, especially in Europe (7.2% YoY CC growth). INFY shares are up ~23% YTD, outperforming the Nifty IT index amid the AI buzz. That said, some forecasts suggest muted sequential growth (~0.8% CC decline), and macro uncertainty lingers. Options pricing points to a ~5-6% post-earnings move, with emphasis on FY27 guidance and the AI pipeline.
Looking Ahead: FY27 Guidance and Factors to Watch
Once Q4 numbers are out, the focus will shift to FY27 guidance, which builds on the revised FY26 target of 3.0%-3.5% CC revenue growth. Management's Q3 remarks emphasized AI value pools such as engineering services, data for AI, and agents—now active in 4,600 projects, with 90% of the top 200 clients engaged.
The large deal momentum ($4.8B TCV in Q3, up from $3.1B previously) and net new logos (57%) indicate a strong pipeline, though conversion to revenue typically lags 6-9 months. One thing that stands out is the deal wins, particularly those infused with AI via Topaz offerings.
Margins could face headwinds from labor codes (~15-20 bps impact), fresher hiring (~20k FY26 target), and subcontractor ramps, though productivity gains (28M+ AI-generated code lines) provide some offset. Rupee fluctuations will also play into CC growth.
I'm watching broader catalysts too, including results from sector peers like TCS and HCLTech, U.S. spending trends, and geopolitical stability. Strong execution here could position Infosys well for AI-driven growth.
Why I Use Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Analysis
In my own research process, Tickeron’s AI Screener has become a go-to tool for efficiently filtering stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It lets me scan thousands of names with customizable filters like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, surfacing trade ideas, trending stocks, breakouts, and opportunities faster than manual methods. From what I've found, it adds real value to pre-earnings checks like this one on INFY.
Disclaimer
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INFY in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2026
INFY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 23 of 36 cases where INFY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where INFY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 55 cases where INFY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for INFY just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where INFY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +6.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INFY advanced for three days, in 161 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on INFY as a result. In 48 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
INFY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for INFY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INFY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for INFY entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.431) is normal, around the industry mean (7.462). P/E Ratio (12.988) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.645). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.782) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). INFY's Dividend Yield (0.050) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (2.236) is also within normal values, averaging (141.758).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. INFY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. INFY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of technology consulting, application, system integration and engineering services
Industry InformationTechnologyServices
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