Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 2026 Earnings: Navigating Growth and Stelara Headwinds
Key Takeaways
- Johnson & Johnson is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
- Consensus estimates call for roughly $25.4 billion in revenue, up about 5.8% from $23.99 billion a year earlier, with adjusted EPS near $2.90.
- The company enters the quarter after raising full-year 2026 guidance in July to about $101.1 billion in reported sales at the midpoint.
- Stelara's loss of patent exclusivity to biosimilars remains the largest drag, and that erosion is expected to deepen this quarter.
- Growth is expected to be led by oncology and immunology drugs such as Darzalex, Tremfya, Carvykti, and Erleada, alongside newer product launches.
- Investors will also monitor the MedTech segment, where Abiomed and electrophysiology have faced recent pressure.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As one of the world's largest healthcare companies, Johnson & Johnson's quarterly report sets an early tone for the broader drug and biotech earnings season. The company has beaten consensus earnings expectations in each of its trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of about 1.4%. In the most recent quarter, adjusted EPS of $2.90 on revenue of $25.31 billion topped estimates and prompted management to lift its full-year outlook. This report matters because it will test whether that momentum can continue as the company pushes toward its first-ever $100 billion annual revenue milestone, even as a major legacy product faces intensifying competition. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street consensus points to third-quarter revenue of roughly $25.4 billion, which would represent growth of about 5.8% versus the prior-year period. On the bottom line, estimates for adjusted EPS cluster near $2.90, roughly in line with the second quarter, though some sell-side trackers model reported EPS closer to $2.66 depending on the accounting basis used.
Analysts expect the Innovative Medicine segment to keep growing above the market rate, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate pegging the segment near $16.7 billion. Within it, Darzalex is expected to deliver around $4.3 billion in sales, Tremfya about $2.24 billion, and Erleada near $1.07 billion. Newer launches—including Inlexzoh, Imaavy (nipocalimab), and Icotyde—are also expected to add an increasing contribution relative to the second quarter.
Offsetting these gains, Stelara is forecast to decline sharply as U.S. biosimilar competition, which launched in 2025, continues to take share. Management has noted that Stelara's loss of exclusivity reduced Innovative Medicine growth by 760 basis points in the second quarter, and analysts expect a steeper drag in the third. The MedTech segment is another area of scrutiny, with consensus near $8.9 billion, as competitive pressure in electrophysiology and softer Abiomed sales weigh on cardiovascular results.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the print is cautious but constructive. Johnson & Johnson has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, which supports a positive bias, and its earnings surprise model suggests a modest likelihood of another beat. However, the stock has recently pulled back toward a support area in the $245 to $251 range, leaving it at a key technical juncture ahead of the report. Investors are weighing the strength of the company's growth portfolio and new launches against the accelerating decline of Stelara and lingering softness in parts of MedTech. The market's reaction will likely hinge on whether full-year guidance is reaffirmed or adjusted, and on the trajectory of the company's newer products rather than the headline beat itself.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following the report, investors should focus on whether management reaffirms or updates its raised full-year 2026 outlook. After the second quarter, the company guided to reported sales of about $101.1 billion at the midpoint and an adjusted EPS midpoint of $11.68, both representing meaningful year-over-year growth.
The most important variable to monitor is the pace of Stelara's decline. Because biosimilar erosion is expected to steepen before it stabilizes, the strength of offsetting products such as Darzalex, Tremfya, Carvykti, and Erleada will determine whether the pharmaceutical business can keep growing above the market.
On the MedTech side, watch for any commentary on Abiomed's recovery, electrophysiology competition, and the ongoing contribution from Shockwave. Cost trends, foreign-exchange effects, and the company's progress toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade are additional signals worth tracking.
Finally, Johnson & Johnson has scheduled an Enterprise Business Review for December 8, 2026, which could offer further strategic clarity on its portfolio and long-term growth plans.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
In my research process, I frequently rely on Tickeron's AI Screener to quickly filter healthcare stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. It helps me compare Johnson & Johnson against peers and spot relevant setups ahead of earnings without spending hours on manual analysis. This approach keeps my workflow efficient while highlighting opportunities that align with specific criteria.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
JNJ in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
JNJ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 17 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JNJ as a result. In 34 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JNJ turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
The 10-day moving average for JNJ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JNJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
The Aroon Indicator for JNJ entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JNJ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 30 of 50 cases where JNJ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JNJ advanced for three days, in 164 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
JNJ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.710) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (31.549) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.852) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.658) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JNJ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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an investment holding company with interests in health care products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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