JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Watching for +17% EPS Growth
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 13, before the market opens.
- Wall Street consensus points to earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $5.94, up about 17% from the prior-year quarter.
- Analysts expect net revenue near $52 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth in the low-to-mid teens.
- Investors are watching net interest income (NII), trading revenue, and investment banking (IB) fees after an exceptionally strong second quarter.
- The main risk is a "good but slowing" quarter, as tough comparisons from Q2's record results loom large.
Why This Report Matters
JPMorgan Chase is the largest U.S. bank by assets and a bellwether for the broader financial sector, so its quarterly results are closely watched by investors worldwide. The bank entered 2026 with strong momentum, posting second-quarter net income of $21.2 billion and EPS of $7.70, aided by a surge in equities trading. Now, with the Federal Reserve holding rates higher for longer and Treasury yields elevated, the Q3 report will test whether that momentum can be sustained. The results will offer key signals on loan demand, consumer credit health, and capital markets activity across the banking industry. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Are Expecting
Consensus estimates call for EPS of approximately $5.94 and net revenue near $52 billion, representing year-over-year increases of about 17% and 12.5%, respectively. These figures follow an exceptional Q2, when JPMorgan reported $21.2 billion in net income and $58.0 billion in managed revenue, with equities trading revenue climbing 86% year over year.
Several key metrics are in focus. Analysts expect reported NII (net interest income, or the money banks earn from lending versus what they pay on deposits) of around $27 billion, up roughly 12.5% year over year. Management has guided for mid-to-high-teens growth in both markets revenue and investment banking fees for the quarter. IB fees are projected to rise about 17%, with consensus near $3.08 billion for the Corporate & Investment Bank segment. Credit costs, including net charge-offs and reserve builds, will also be scrutinized after totaling $2.5 billion in Q2.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the print is cautiously optimistic but demanding. JPM shares have pulled back roughly 10% from their all-time high of $366 and are trading near oversold levels on the daily chart, testing their 200-day moving average. Options markets are pricing a move of around ±4.4% around earnings, above the bank's 10-year average of ±3.4%, signaling expectations of an outsized reaction.
Investors appear to be weighing a strong fundamental backdrop against a high bar set by Q2. The bull case rests on resilient NII, continued capital markets strength, and stable credit. The bear case is a "good but slowing" quarter in which trading and IB growth moderate from peak levels. With the stock trading at a premium price-to-book multiple of about 2.5x, the market will likely reward a clean beat and punish any sign of fading momentum.
What to Watch Going Forward
Following the Q3 report, investors should watch several forward-looking signals. First, management's commentary on the full-year 2026 net interest income outlook will be critical. The bank previously guided for total NII of approximately $105.5 billion, with about $96.5 billion excluding Markets, and any revision will shape expectations for 2027's exit run rate.
Second, the trajectory of trading and investment banking activity matters. Management has acknowledged that the specific combination of events that drove Q2's equities surge may be difficult to repeat, so guidance on the deal pipeline and client activity levels will be closely parsed.
Third, credit quality deserves attention. With rates elevated, investors will monitor net charge-off trends in card and commercial lending, as well as any changes to reserve levels. JPMorgan previously lowered its full-year card net charge-off rate outlook to about 3.2%.
Finally, expense discipline remains a point of debate. The bank raised its adjusted expense outlook to about $107.5 billion, citing volume- and revenue-linked costs, and its capital deployment strategy, including buybacks and the newly raised dividend of $1.65 per share, will remain in focus. From what I see, these elements will help shape the longer-term outlook.
My Take on Using AI Tools for Earnings Analysis
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter financial stocks and compare key metrics like NII trends or valuation multiples across peers. It helps surface relevant ideas without spending hours on manual screens, which keeps my focus on the data that matters most for upcoming reports like this one.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
JPM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026
JPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 31 cases where JPM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JPM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 54 cases where JPM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JPM advanced for three days, in 217 of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JPM as a result. In 31 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
JPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for JPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JPM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for JPM entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. JPM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: JPM's P/B Ratio (2.530) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.866). P/E Ratio (14.421) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.888). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.562) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). JPM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.018) as compared to the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (4.888) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
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