GET DAILY SIGNALSLatham Group (SWIM): Can Shares Reach a +33% Gain Toward the $11 Target?
Key Takeaways
- Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) designs, manufactures, and markets in-ground residential swimming pools, liners, and covers across North America, Australia, and New Zealand.
- The central $11 target is the average of the two analyst price targets that sit above the current share price ($9.50 and $13.00), not an overall consensus.
- At a recent price near $8.26, reaching $11 would require a gain of roughly 33% — a substantial move.
- Across roughly seven analysts, the overall average target is near $8, essentially in line with the current price, with a wide range spanning about $5.50–$6.00 to $13.00.
- Supporting factors include recent revenue and profit growth, market-share gains, and a strategy aimed at underpenetrated U.S. regions and product attach rates.
- Key risks include a soft new-pool-construction backdrop, an elevated valuation on a thin earnings base, and a pronounced split between Sell, Hold, and Buy ratings.
- For more context, explore the Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see AI-driven trading strategies currently in focus.
Analyst Price Targets and the Consensus Picture
Latham Group is covered by roughly seven sell-side analysts, and the overall picture shows real disagreement. The full target range runs from about $5.50–$6.00 on the cautious end to $13.00 on the bullish end. Because the overall average of all targets — reported near $8 — sits essentially in line with the current price, it does not represent a meaningful upside objective. Applying a minimum-distance rule, the central $11 figure used here is the average of the two analyst targets that sit above the current share price: Stifel Nicolaus's $9.50 (Buy) and the $13.00 high target. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Analyst views differ sharply. Stifel analyst W. Andrew Carter maintains a Buy rating with a $9.50 target, arguing Latham can keep gaining share and expanding margins. Barclays's Matthew Bouley lifted the firm's target to $8 from $7 in early November 2026 while keeping an Equal Weight rating. On the cautious side, Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating with a $7.30 target in November 2026, and Goldman Sachs analyst Susan Maklari lowered her target to $5.50 from $6 in October 2026, keeping a Sell. William Blair's Ryan Merkel downgraded the stock to Market Perform in October 2026. No single view should be treated as more likely than another; the wide dispersion simply reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of a pool-industry recovery.
Where Latham Stands Today and the Road to $11
Latham's shares recently traded near $8.26, toward the upper end of a 52-week range of roughly $4.64 to $8.97. Reaching $11 would require an advance of about 33%, a substantial move that would take the stock decisively above its prior 52-week high. The company's latest quarterly results showed revenue of $182.18 million and net profit of $12.06 million for the period ended in late September 2026, up from revenue of $161.9 million and net profit of $8.12 million a year earlier — evidence of improving profitability on a still-recovering earnings base. A path toward $11 would likely depend on sustained market-share gains, margin expansion, and a broader recovery in residential pool construction rather than on valuation alone.
Factors That Could Help Reach the Target
Several verified factors could support a higher share price. Revenue and net income are growing year over year, and management has emphasized gaining share in underpenetrated southern U.S. markets, expanding automatic safety-cover attach rates, and pursuing acquisitions — initiatives that could support sales even as new-pool construction remains soft. The stock's recent climb from roughly $7.32 in early November to above $8.26 after the quarterly report suggests the market is rewarding improving execution. A genuine rebound in new residential pool starts, lower interest rates that ease home-improvement financing, or further analyst target increases could all reinforce the bullish case.
Risks That Might Hold It Back
The obstacles are substantial. New-pool construction has been depressed following a post-pandemic boom, and a prolonged housing slowdown or elevated borrowing costs could keep demand weak. Latham trades at a high multiple relative to a still-thin earnings base, leaving the stock vulnerable to compression if growth disappoints. The analyst community is visibly split, with Sell ratings from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs alongside Stifel's Buy — a sign that the recovery thesis is not yet consensus. Any guidance cut, margin erosion from input costs, or competitive pressure would directly undercut the case for a move toward $11.
Technical Levels Worth Watching
Latham is trading within roughly 8% of its 52-week high of about $8.97, which now acts as near-term resistance. A sustained push through the $9.00 area would represent a breakout to multi-year highs, while $11 would require clearing that level and establishing meaningfully new ground. On the downside, the $7.30–$7.50 zone — where the shares traded before the early-November rally — and the broader $4.64 52-week low bracket the relevant support structure. The round-number $8 and $9 levels are also likely to attract attention as the stock consolidates near its highs.
Time Horizon and Key Things to Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of about 12 months, though individual firms rarely disclose identical timelines. Investors weighing the $11 objective should watch the next quarterly earnings release and management guidance, any analyst rating or target revisions, and U.S. housing and new-construction data. Interest-rate decisions and their effect on home-improvement financing, along with input-cost trends and any acquisition activity, will also matter. None of these items should be read as a definitive forecast of the stock's direction.
Final Assessment
The question of whether Latham Group (SWIM) can reach $11 depends on a recovery that is far from assured. The $11 figure is not an overall consensus — it is the average of the two analyst targets above the current price ($9.50 and $13.00), while the broader seven-analyst average sits near $8, roughly in line with the market. Reaching $11 would require a rise of about 33%, supported by improving revenue, profit growth, and market-share initiatives, but challenged by a soft construction backdrop, an elevated valuation, and sharply divided analyst opinion. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings, guidance, and housing data rather than treat any target as a guarantee.
Using Tickeron AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals for Additional Insight
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to get a data-driven view of short-term momentum. These signals apply artificial intelligence to scan thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold recommendations based on technical behavior and market conditions. For a name like Latham Group, they provide a useful complement to the longer-term analyst targets, helping highlight shifts that might not yet show up in consensus estimates. This approach keeps my monitoring efficient without replacing fundamental analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
SWIM in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
SWIM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 44 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWIM as a result. In 60 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SWIM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SWIM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The 10-day moving average for SWIM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +2.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWIM advanced for three days, in 203 of 258 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 110 of 148 cases where SWIM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SWIM moved out of overbought territory on November 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 26 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWIM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
SWIM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SWIM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.245) is normal, around the industry mean (2.853). SWIM's P/E Ratio (157.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (24.804). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.215). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.308) is also within normal values, averaging (1.867).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWIM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
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