GET DAILY SIGNALSMACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Delivers Strong Fiscal Q4 Results on Data Center Momentum
Key Takeaways
- MACOM reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 (quarter ended October 2, 2026) revenue of $424.8 million, up 62.7% year over year and 24.1% sequentially.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.09, topping the roughly $2.00–$2.04 consensus estimate.
- Data center revenue reached a record $188.1 million, rising approximately 37% sequentially and nearly doubling from two quarters earlier.
- Adjusted gross margin expanded to 61.3%, while adjusted operating margin hit a record 38.2%.
- Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance of $450–$460 million in revenue and $2.21–$2.29 in adjusted EPS landed above analyst expectations.
- For more on MTSI's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore our dedicated pages for the latest data and insights.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products for data center, industrial and defense (I&D), and telecommunications markets. Its fiscal 2026 has been defined by surging demand for optical and high-speed connectivity components tied to AI-driven data center buildouts. Investors watch this report closely because it reveals whether that momentum is durable, how margins are scaling, and whether order trends can justify the stock's elevated valuation. With management repeatedly raising its data center growth outlook throughout the year, the fourth-quarter print served as a key test of execution and forward visibility heading into fiscal 2027.
Reported Results
MACOM closed its fiscal year with its strongest quarter yet. Revenue of $424.8 million rose 62.7% year over year and 24.1% sequentially, with growth across all three end markets. Data center led the way at $188.1 million, followed by industrial and defense at $164.6 million and telecom at $72.1 million. Adjusted diluted EPS reached $2.09, above the consensus estimate near $2.00, while adjusted gross margin expanded 160 basis points sequentially to 61.3%. Adjusted operating income of $162.3 million produced a record 38.2% operating margin, up from 31.5% in the prior quarter.
On a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis, net income was $139.4 million, or $1.78 per diluted share. For the full fiscal year, revenue grew 37.3% to $1.33 billion and adjusted EPS climbed 61% to $5.60. The quarter's book-to-bill ratio was 1.4 to 1, and the company ended the year with record backlog, signaling continued demand despite a modest sequential slowdown in order intake. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite a top-and-bottom-line beat and above-consensus guidance, MTSI shares sold off sharply following the report, with the stock down roughly 16%–18% in early trading. The reaction reflected investor concerns that outweighed the strong headline numbers, including a step-up in capital expenditure to $100–$110 million for fiscal 2027, rising research and development (R&D) spending, a doubling of the non-GAAP tax rate to about 6%, and a softer book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 to 1 compared with 1.6 in the prior quarter. Telecom also remained a weak spot, guided roughly flat to slightly down in the December quarter. The post-earnings decline underscored how much optimism had already been priced in before the announcement.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, management guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $450–$460 million with adjusted EPS of $2.21–$2.29, both above analyst estimates. The company also raised its fiscal 2027 data center growth base case to roughly 80%, up from about 50% framed on the prior call, while targeting even higher industrial and defense growth than the 27.8% achieved in fiscal 2026.
Investors should monitor several factors in the coming quarters. First, data center order cadence and book-to-bill trends will indicate whether record backlog is converting into sustained revenue. Second, gross margin trajectory is expected to slow to roughly 25–50 basis points of sequential improvement, so any deviation will matter. Third, rising R&D and capital expenditures, along with a higher non-GAAP tax rate, could pressure earnings growth even as revenue expands.
Finally, watch for progress on strategic catalysts such as co-packaged optics engagements, new data center front-end chipsets, and a potential CHIPS Act (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) agreement. Telecom remains a softer area to track, with 5G ramps weighted toward the back half of fiscal 2027. From what I see, these elements will shape the stock's path in the quarters ahead.
Using AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process, Tickeron’s AI Screener has become a regular part of evaluating semiconductor names. It helps filter the market by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics, allowing quicker comparisons across peers and identification of setups that might otherwise take more time to surface manually.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MTSI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for MTSI entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 134 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 103 of the 134 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTSI as a result. In 69 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTSI turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
MTSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for MTSI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
MTSI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTSI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +7.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTSI advanced for three days, in 263 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.435) is normal, around the industry mean (5.869). P/E Ratio (59.299) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.161). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.611) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries provides high-performance analog semiconductor solutions
Industry Semiconductors
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