Marriott International (MAR) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: What Analysts Expect
Key Takeaways
- Marriott International (MAR) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Monday, August 3.
- Wall Street consensus points to adjusted earnings of approximately $3.06 per share, representing roughly 15.5% growth from the $2.65 reported in the prior-year quarter.
- Revenue is expected to land near $7.2 billion, up roughly 7% year-over-year, driven by expanding fee streams and steady room growth.
- The company guided for worldwide comparable RevPAR growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, a notable deceleration from the 4.2% pace delivered in the first quarter.
- Investors are closely watching the balance between resilient North American leisure demand and headwinds tied to Middle East geopolitical disruption.
- Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with a consensus Moderate Buy rating and an average 12-month price target around $388.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Marriott International's second-quarter 2026 report arrives at a time when the global hospitality sector is sending mixed signals. Travel demand across the United States and Canada has stayed resilient, with luxury, group, and select-service segments supporting broad occupancy and rate gains. At the same time, geopolitical issues in the Middle East have disrupted air travel and weighed on performance in parts of Europe, the Middle East, and select Asia-Pacific markets. For investors, this quarter offers a clear test of Marriott's asset-light, fee-driven model, which supports high-margin revenue from franchise, licensing, and co-branded credit card fees even as RevPAR growth slows.
What the Numbers Are Expected to Show
Consensus estimates point to adjusted earnings per share of about $3.06, with forecasts ranging from $3.03 to $3.08. That compares with $2.65 in the second quarter of 2025 and $2.72 in the first quarter of 2026. Revenue is projected between $7.18 billion and $7.30 billion, up roughly 6.5% to 7.7% from $6.74 billion a year earlier. Marriott's own guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $2.99 to $3.06, with gross fee revenues between $1.538 billion and $1.553 billion. Worldwide comparable systemwide constant-currency RevPAR growth is expected at 1.5% to 2.5%, and adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise 8% to 10% year-over-year. Incentive management fees are forecast to decline in the mid-single digits, largely due to an anticipated roughly 50% RevPAR drop at Middle East properties.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how Marriott compares with other names in the hospitality space ahead of the print.
How the Stock Has Performed and What Analysts Say
Shares of MAR are trading near $373, down about 1.5% over the past month and roughly 9% below the 52-week high of $410.98. The stock has still gained about 28% over the past 12 months, ahead of the broader S&P 500. Analyst views are constructive but measured, with a Moderate Buy consensus from 18 firms. Recent target changes include TD Cowen raising its price target to $420 with a Buy rating, while Barclays kept an Equal-Weight stance and a $379 target. The average 12-month price target sits near $388, suggesting roughly 4% upside from current levels.
Marriott has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.5%. The stock rose about 1.3% after the first-quarter 2026 beat in May, when the company also raised its full-year RevPAR outlook. Key risks include the extent of Middle East revenue pressure, any softness at Mexican luxury resorts, renovation impacts at owned and leased properties, and commentary on business transient and government travel trends.
What to Watch for in the Outlook
The second-quarter results will matter most for the signals they send about the rest of 2026. Marriott already lifted its full-year global RevPAR growth forecast to 2% to 3% after the first quarter, so any further revision will shape the post-earnings discussion. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to add 30 to 35 basis points to full-year global RevPAR growth, with a large portion of the benefit likely in U.S. markets. Investors will pay close attention to booking trends tied to the tournament.
General and administrative expenses are expected to rise in the mid-to-high single digits in the second quarter due to compensation timing, which may affect margin comparisons. Marriott is continuing to invest in digital technology, with 30% to 35% of full-year spending directed toward tech initiatives such as AI-driven booking tools and a new conversational search feature on marriott.com. The global pipeline reached a record of nearly 618,000 rooms at the end of the first quarter, with conversions making up more than 40% of openings. Net room additions are guided at 4.5% to 5% for the full year. Ongoing U.S. co-branded credit card renegotiations could provide additional fee upside later in the year, though management has excluded any such impact from current guidance.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools for Earnings Prep
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings season. It lets me quickly scan hospitality and consumer discretionary names using industry filters, technical signals, and performance metrics, which helps surface relevant comparisons without spending hours on manual research.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
MAR in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MAR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MAR as a result. In 53 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAR just turned positive on September 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
MAR moved above its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAR advanced for three days, in 213 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MAR moved out of overbought territory on September 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 50 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
MAR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MAR entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MAR's P/B Ratio (443.634) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (43.305). P/E Ratio (37.119) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.567). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.793) is also within normal values, averaging (20.230). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.341) is also within normal values, averaging (2.766).
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General Information
an operator of hotels and related lodging facilities
Industry CableSatelliteTV
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