MSOS ETF Climbs +18% in 30 Days as Regulatory Tailwinds Support Cannabis Operators
Key Takeaways
- MSOS gained roughly 18% over the trailing 30 days, rebounding from about $4.21 to approximately $4.97.
- The advance follows a volatile three-month stretch in which the fund peaked near $5.75 in early June before sliding to roughly $4.01 in late July.
- Regulatory catalysts—led by the move of state-licensed medical cannabis to Schedule III and the removal of IRS Section 280E tax penalties—remain the dominant drivers of ETF performance.
- The portfolio is concentrated in the largest U.S. multi-state operators (MSOs), including Curaleaf Holdings, Trulieve Cannabis, and Green Thumb Industries.
- Because most plant-touching U.S. operators cannot list directly on major exchanges, MSOS gains much of its exposure through total-return swaps, adding structural and counterparty considerations.
MSOS ETF Overview and Its Focus on U.S. Cannabis Operators
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is an actively managed, non-diversified exchange-traded fund that seeks long-term capital appreciation. The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in securities of companies deriving at least half of their net revenue from the U.S. marijuana and hemp business, as well as in derivatives with similar economic characteristics. Launched in September 2020, MSOS is structured as a thematic vehicle focused specifically on domestic, plant-touching cannabis operators rather than on Canadian licensed producers.
The fund holds roughly 112 positions and manages approximately $850 million in assets under management (AUM). Its largest exposures are concentrated among the biggest U.S. MSOs, including Curaleaf Holdings, Trulieve Cannabis, Green Thumb Industries, Glass House Brands, Verano Holdings, TerrAscend, and Cresco Labs. The net expense ratio is approximately 0.78%. Because U.S. exchanges have historically restricted direct listings of plant-touching cannabis businesses, MSOS obtains a significant share of its exposure through total-return swaps with institutional counterparties, which is why a large portion of the portfolio is held in cash and short-term Treasury collateral.
This concentrated, swap-based structure explains much of the fund's recent behavior. When regulatory sentiment improves, the handful of large MSOs that dominate the portfolio can move sharply, amplifying both the upside and the downside of the overall vehicle. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
MSOS Price Performance Over the Last 30 Days and Quarter
Over the trailing 30-day period, MSOS advanced approximately 18%, rising from a close near $4.21 to roughly $4.97. The move was not a straight line: the fund consolidated through much of early-to-mid August before a renewed leg higher in late August carried it toward the $5.00 level.
The broader quarterly picture is more mixed. Over the trailing three months, the ETF is modestly lower—down roughly 1.6% from around $5.05—because an early-June rally that briefly pushed the fund above $5.75 gave way to a steep pullback that bottomed near $4.01 in late July. The result is a volatile, V-shaped pattern in which the recent 30-day rebound has largely recovered the ground lost during the summer drawdown but has not yet fully retraced the June highs.
Factors Behind the Recent 30-Day Advance in MSOS
The recent advance was driven primarily by continued progress on U.S. cannabis regulation. In the spring, federal action moved state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III, eliminating the IRS Section 280E penalty that had prevented licensed operators from deducting ordinary business expenses such as payroll, rent, and interest. That change directly improved the earnings and free cash flow (FCF) outlook for the large MSOs that anchor the MSOS portfolio.
Sentiment was further supported by the NYSE listing of Trulieve Cannabis (TRLV), one of the fund's largest holdings, which was widely seen as a signal that U.S. exchanges are opening to previously restricted operators. Ongoing Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) proceedings examining whether adult-use cannabis could also be rescheduled kept investor attention on the sector, while quarterly earnings from major holdings gave investors a clearer view of improving operating leverage under the new tax regime. The combination of tax relief, exchange access, and expectation of further reform supported renewed accumulation in the fund.
Performance Drivers Over the Trailing Quarter
Over the trailing quarter, MSOS's trajectory reflected the tension between a powerful regulatory catalyst and profit-taking in a high-beta, sentiment-driven sector. The strong rally into early June was fueled by the Schedule III announcement and the anticipation of exchange uplistings. As the initial catalyst passed, the fund gave back gains through June and July in a classic "sell the news" pattern, compounded by the sector's historically elevated volatility.
Longer-term, the quarter highlighted a structural shift rather than a simple trading move. The removal of 280E tax penalties represents a durable change to the profitability calculus of U.S. cannabis operators, and institutional ETF flows and positioning reflected a gradual re-rating of the sector from a speculative trade toward a fundamentally improving earnings story. The recovery in August and early September suggests investors have begun to look past short-term headline noise toward the cumulative effect of tax relief, banking access, and potential broader rescheduling.
Key Developments to Monitor for MSOS Going Forward
The most important variable for MSOS remains the federal regulatory timeline. Investors should monitor the outcome of DEA proceedings on adult-use rescheduling, any movement on banking reform, and the pace at which operators translate tax relief into reported profitability and free cash flow. The 280E removal is already improving cash generation for medical-focused operators; whether adult-use markets receive the same treatment will shape the next leg of the sector's earnings cycle.
At the portfolio level, the concentration of MSOS in a small number of large MSOs means the fund's performance will remain tightly linked to the operational execution of Curaleaf, Trulieve, and Green Thumb Industries, as well as their ability to refinance debt and expand in limited-license states. Broader macro conditions, including interest rates and credit availability, also matter, since cannabis operators remain sensitive to the cost of capital. Structural risks include counterparty exposure from the fund's swap-based structure, ongoing federal-state legal tension, and the sector's persistent volatility. The balance between further regulatory progress and profit-taking will likely define the fund's path in the months ahead.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research Process
I regularly turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when analyzing specialized ETFs like MSOS. It helps me quickly compare technical indicators, fundamentals, and industry filters across thousands of securities, which adds efficiency to reviewing concentrated themes such as U.S. cannabis operators. The platform’s AI-generated signals and performance metrics have become a useful part of my routine for identifying related opportunities and tracking sector leadership shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
MSOS's RSI Oscillator entering oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for MSOS moved into overbought territory on October 08, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSOS advanced for three days, in 195 of 222 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
MSOS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 107 of 117 cases where MSOS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSOS as a result. In 76 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSOS turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 36 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
MSOS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MSOS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
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