GET DAILY SIGNALSNMI Holdings (NMIH) Reports Q3 2026 Earnings: EPS at $1.23 with Book Value Growth
Key Takeaways
- NMI Holdings reported third quarter 2026 net income of $93.5 million, or $1.23 per diluted share, down from $1.38 in the prior quarter.
- Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23 came in below the analyst consensus of roughly $1.29 to $1.32 per share.
- Total revenue reached $187.6 million, up 5% year over year, though slightly below the approximately $190.6 million consensus estimate.
- Insurance claims and claim expenses climbed to $29.1 million, pushing the loss ratio to 18.7% from 8.3% in the second quarter.
- Primary insurance-in-force grew 5% year over year to $229.7 billion, while book value per share (excluding unrealized investment gains and losses) rose 14% to $38.13.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As the parent of National Mortgage Insurance Corporation (National MI), NMIH operates in the private mortgage insurance market, helping borrowers buy homes with smaller down payments while protecting lenders and the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) from credit risk. The company's quarterly results are closely watched because they reveal both the health of the U.S. housing market and the profitability of its underwriting. NMIH has built a track record of steady premium growth and expanding book value, and investors use each report to gauge how rising claims, interest rates, and new business volumes are affecting earnings power and capital strength. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, NMI Holdings reported net income of $93.5 million, or $1.23 per diluted share, compared with $105.8 million, or $1.38 per share, in the second quarter and $96.0 million, or $1.22 per share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted net income was $93.7 million, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23, below the consensus estimate of roughly $1.29 to $1.32 per share.
Total revenue came in at $187.6 million, up 5% from $178.7 million a year earlier but modestly below the approximately $190.6 million consensus. Net premiums earned were $155.5 million, up 3% year over year, while net investment income rose 20% to $32.2 million, helped by a larger invested asset base.
The quarter's most notable shift was in underwriting costs. Insurance claims and claim expenses totaled $29.1 million, up from $13.1 million in the second quarter and $18.6 million a year earlier. That drove the loss ratio to 18.7% from 8.3% sequentially and lifted the combined ratio to 38.5%. Management attributed the higher claims activity to normal seasonal patterns and the continued growth and seasoning of the portfolio. From what I see, this sequential increase warrants close attention in coming quarters.
On the balance sheet, primary insurance-in-force reached $229.7 billion, up 5% year over year, though new insurance written of $13.6 billion declined 15% sequentially. Book value per share was $36.13, and $38.13 excluding net unrealized investment gains and losses, up 14% from a year ago. The company ended the quarter with $3.8 billion in available assets under the Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs, the regulatory capital framework for mortgage insurers) against $2.2 billion in required assets, leaving $1.6 billion in excess capacity.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of NMIH were roughly flat at about $44.54 in the immediate aftermath of the release, with the modest earnings and revenue misses offset by continued growth in book value and a strong capital position. The stock has risen roughly 8% year to date and more than 20% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting investor confidence in the company's consistent premium growth and disciplined capital return. Sentiment around the quarter centered on the sharp sequential rise in claims, which investors are monitoring to determine whether it reflects one-time seasonality or the beginning of a sustained normalization in credit costs.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether the higher claims activity observed in the third quarter persists or reverts to recent norms. A sustained rise in the loss ratio would pressure underwriting profitability and annualized returns on equity, which fell to 13.8% from 15.9% sequentially.
New business production will also remain in focus. While new insurance written grew 4% year over year, the 15% sequential decline suggests purchase and refinance activity may be moderating, a trend worth watching as mortgage rates and housing affordability evolve.
Capital management is another key theme. The company repurchased $27.1 million of stock during the quarter and retains $140 million of repurchase capacity under its existing program. Management also highlighted new reinsurance treaties providing forward-flow coverage for new business through 2030 at an estimated 4% pre-tax cost of capital, reinforcing its credit risk management framework.
Finally, the growth of book value per share, excluding unrealized investment gains and losses, remains a core measure of underlying value creation. Continued expansion there, alongside steady insurance-in-force growth, will be central to how investors assess the company's trajectory in the quarters ahead.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools for Research
In my own analysis, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter opportunities and benchmark names like NMIH against peers. It helps surface patterns and signals that complement traditional earnings reviews, making it a practical part of staying on top of mortgage insurance and housing-related names.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for NMIH turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NMIH saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 63 of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NMIH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NMIH just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NMIH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
NMIH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NMIH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NMIH advanced for three days, in 225 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 181 of 284 cases where NMIH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NMIH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NMIH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NMIH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.222) is normal, around the industry mean (1.004). P/E Ratio (8.503) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.467). NMIH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.040) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.944). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.505) among similar stocks. NMIH's P/S Ratio (4.575) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.529).
Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of private mortgage insurance services
Industry SpecialtyInsurance
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