GET DAILY SIGNALSNuScale Power (SMR) Slides -28.9% Over 30 Days on Contract Uncertainty
Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power (SMR) fell roughly 28.9% over the last 30 days, sliding from about $7.90 to $5.62 as renewed contract uncertainty and analyst downgrades pressured the shares.
- The decline reflects a broader cooling of investor enthusiasm toward pre-revenue small modular reactor (SMR) developers rather than a single earnings-driven event.
- A Barclays downgrade to Underweight with a $5 price target, a securities-law investigation, and sustained insider selling weighed on sentiment.
- Delayed commercial milestones, including the ENTRA1–Tennessee Valley Authority agreement and Romania's Doicești project, drove much of the selling.
- Over the trailing quarter, shares fell roughly 38% from the $9 area in early August, extending a slide from a September peak near $11.
- NuScale remains the only SMR developer with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) design certification and holds a substantial cash position, but near-term revenue remains minimal.
Company Background and Market Position
NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) is an advanced nuclear technology company focused on small modular reactors. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Portland, Oregon, the company's flagship product is the NuScale Power Module, a 77-megawatt electric pressurized water reactor that can be scaled into configurations of up to 924 MWe across 12 modules. NuScale holds a meaningful regulatory advantage: it is the first and only SMR design to receive design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Its VOYGR power plant configurations target utilities, data-center operators, and industrial customers seeking carbon-free, around-the-clock baseload power. NuScale went public through a SPAC merger in 2022 and counts engineering and construction firm Fluor (FLR) among its largest investors. Despite its technological milestones, the company remains essentially pre-revenue at commercial scale, generating minimal revenue while it works toward a first large-scale deployment.
Stock Performance Over the Past 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, NuScale shares declined approximately 28.9%, falling from a closing price of $7.90 to $5.62. The move was not linear: the stock briefly rallied in early October before a sharp leg lower in the second half of the month pushed it toward multi-year lows. The quarterly picture is similarly weak. From roughly $9 in early August, the shares have fallen about 38%. NuScale actually strengthened into early September, touching a closing high near $11.18, before reversing as commercial and financing concerns reasserted themselves. From that September peak, the stock has declined nearly 50%, underscoring the speed with which sentiment has deteriorated.
What Pushed the Stock Lower in the Last 30 Days
Several verified developments shaped the decline. In early October, shares briefly jumped alongside peers after Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) signed a 20-year nuclear power agreement with Constellation Energy (CEG), reinforcing investor interest in nuclear power for data centers. That optimism proved short-lived. Mid-month, Romania's state-owned utility Nuclearelectrica reported that more than 80% of the conditions tied to its Doicești project final investment decision remained unmet, a setback for NuScale's most advanced international reference project. Separately, a UBS downgrade and a Pomerantz LLP investigation into investor claims added to the pressure. The heaviest blow came on October 20, when Barclays cut NuScale to Underweight and lowered its price target from $11 to $5, citing execution risks from commercial development delays and contract uncertainties. The shares set a 52-week intraday low of $5.33 that day. A subsequent contract with GE Vernova (GEV)-peer Doosan Enerbility to manufacture upper reactor coolant system components offered a brief bounce, but it did not offset the broader de-rating. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Broader Quarterly Drivers Behind the Move
The quarterly decline reflects a longer-running repricing of pre-revenue nuclear names. NuScale traded at a record $53.43 in October 2025 at the peak of investor enthusiasm for AI-driven power demand. As that enthusiasm faded and focus returned to execution, the stock has steadily retraced, falling about 60% in 2026. Second-quarter results reported in early August underscored the challenge: revenue fell to roughly $0.1 million from $8.1 million a year earlier as the company's Fluor front-end engineering work wound down, while losses widened. With the binding ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement still unresolved and negotiations potentially extending into 2027, investors have had little near-term revenue visibility to anchor the valuation. Selling pressure from early investor Fluor and sustained insider selling have compounded the decline.
What to Watch Next for SMR
Investors will be watching NuScale's third-quarter earnings report, expected in early November, for updates on cash position and the status of the ENTRA1–TVA discussions. A binding power purchase agreement for up to 6 gigawatts of capacity would represent the most consequential near-term catalyst, while the next steps on Romania's Doicești project will indicate whether the company's international pipeline is advancing. Competitive pressure from developers such as Oklo (OKLO) and X-Energy, ongoing insider selling, and the company's cash-burn trajectory remain key risks. Macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and continued demand for data-center power will also shape sentiment across the broader nuclear sector. From what I see, the upcoming earnings and contract updates will be critical inflection points.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SMR's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SMR turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where SMR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SMR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 63 cases where SMR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for SMR entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 29 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.119) is normal, around the industry mean (4.038). P/E Ratio (-2.555) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.928). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (208.333) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SMR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SMR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
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