Pan American Silver (PAAS) Delivers Strong Q2 Revenue Growth Amid Mixed Production Results
Key Takeaways
- Revenue rose 38% year over year to $1.124 billion, while net earnings climbed to $305 million, or $0.72 per share.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73 nearly doubled from $0.43 a year earlier but landed below consensus estimates.
- Attributable silver production of 6.47 million ounces hit the high end of guidance; gold production of 165,900 ounces missed the quarterly range.
- Record shareholder returns reached $300 million, combining share buybacks and dividends, with a new $0.184 per-share dividend declared.
- Silver all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a mining cost measure) improved to $17.80 per ounce, while gold AISC rose to $1,984 per ounce.
- The company ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in cash and short-term investments and $3.2 billion in total available liquidity.
Putting the Quarter in Context
Pan American Silver reported second-quarter 2026 results after the market close on August 12, 2026, covering the three months ended June 30, 2026. The quarter provided a test of whether the silver and gold producer could convert sharply higher metal prices into earnings and free cash flow while keeping costs under control. I was also watching the production mix closely, as silver output has been strong while gold operations continue to face sequencing and grade challenges. With the stock up more than 60% over the past year before the release, the report carried extra weight as a check on valuation, capital returns, and the durability of margin expansion. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
Pan American Silver posted second-quarter revenue of $1.124 billion, up from $812 million a year earlier. Net earnings were $305 million, or $0.72 per share, compared with $190 million, or $0.52 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted earnings reached $308 million, or $0.73 per share, up from $155 million, or $0.43 per share, a year ago.
Despite the year-over-year gains, adjusted EPS came in below consensus estimates, which ranged from $0.84 to $0.92 per share across major data providers, and revenue was below the roughly $1.16 billion consensus. Cash flow from operations was $320 million. Attributable free cash flow, or cash from operations minus sustaining capital spending, was $344 million.
Attributable silver production, which reflects the company's ownership share of output, rose to 6.47 million ounces from 5.09 million ounces, at the high end of the quarterly outlook and helped by La Colorada and Juanicipio. Gold production fell to 165,900 ounces from 178,700 ounces, below the quarterly outlook range. Silver Segment AISC improved to $17.80 per ounce from $19.66, while Gold Segment AISC increased to $1,984 per ounce from $1,611, reflecting lower gold output and higher labor, consumables, and royalty costs.
How the Market Responded
PAAS shares closed at $52.38 on August 12, 2026, before the release, and fell more than 6% in extended trading after the results. The pullback reflected the bottom-line miss versus consensus and the gold production shortfall, even though silver output, free cash flow, and shareholder returns were strong.
Sentiment heading into the print had been optimistic because of higher realized metal prices: the company's average realized silver price rose to $70.97 per ounce from $32.91 a year earlier, and gold averaged $4,402 per ounce versus $3,305. However, rising gold AISC and lowered gold production expectations gave investors reason to reassess near-term cost momentum.
Forward Outlook and What I’m Watching
Management reiterated its 2026 operating outlook for production and costs, but refined expectations. Full-year gold production is now expected at the low end of the 700,000 to 750,000 ounce guidance range, and Gold Segment AISC is expected at the high end of the $1,700 to $1,850 per ounce range. Third-quarter gold production is forecast three to six thousand ounces below the low end of its 178,500 to 192,000 ounce quarterly range. The company also raised its full-year guidance for taxes paid to $585 million to $635 million.
Several operational factors explain the adjustment. At Jacobina in Brazil, the company is leaving larger pillars and adjusting mining sequencing after seismic events, which lowers near-term output but supports safety and reserve grade. At El Peñon, gold production is expected about 10,000 ounces below the low end of guidance because of lower continuity in secondary structures. Weather is another watch item: extreme rainstorms linked to El Niño have affected site access in Chile and Argentina.
Investors should monitor cost trends, a fourth-quarter-weighted recovery in gold production, and project milestones. Development of the 588 Decline at La Colorada Skarn began in August 2026, and the first phase of the Timmins Camp Project carries a $146 million budget, with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA, an early-stage project study) expected in the first half of 2027. The Escobal mine restart remains dependent on the ILO 169 consultation process (International Labour Organization Convention 169), with no timeline set. Capital returns and free cash flow generation will likely remain in focus as metal prices fluctuate. From what I see, the balance sheet strength and silver production momentum remain supportive.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
As part of my ongoing analysis, I regularly use Tickeron’s AI-powered tools to scan for comparable opportunities and validate patterns across the sector. The AI Screener stands out for its ability to filter by fundamentals, technicals, and AI-driven signals in a single workflow, helping me quickly surface ideas that align with the themes I’m tracking in precious metals. It has become a practical addition to my routine when evaluating names like PAAS alongside peers.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
PAAS in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PAAS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
PAAS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 50 of 59 cases where PAAS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +4.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 245 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 16 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.579) is normal, around the industry mean (3.888). P/E Ratio (13.541) is within average values for comparable stocks, (46.261). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a company which explores silver and other minerals
Industry PreciousMetals
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