GET DAILY SIGNALSPHM vs TOL: Why PulteGroup Edges Out Toll Brothers in Today’s Housing Market
Key Takeaways
- PHM (PulteGroup) combines a stronger balance sheet — a net cash position and an 11.2% debt-to-capital ratio — with a more diversified buyer base across 47 markets, supporting more resilient order trends.
- TOL (Toll Brothers) posted record home sales revenue of $10.8 billion in fiscal 2025, but a declining backlog, rising cancellations, and an earnings miss reflect near-term demand softness.
- Both companies are navigating elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure, yet PHM has shown comparatively steadier relative performance and order momentum.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: PHM is the ticker of choice in this comparison, based on trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and more balanced growth drivers.
- For more context, explore PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- Discover how AI evaluates stocks like these by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Setting the Stage for Two Distinct Homebuilders
PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two of the most closely followed names in U.S. homebuilding, though they serve quite different segments of the market. PulteGroup runs a diversified, multi-brand operation that reaches first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers across many regions. Toll Brothers, by contrast, concentrates on luxury and affordable-luxury homes aimed at more affluent buyers. This comparison matters for investors weighing how these contrasting models hold up under the same pressures of higher mortgage rates, softer confidence, and ongoing affordability challenges. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stocks stack up against peers in the sector.
PulteGroup’s Position and Recent Results
Headquartered in Atlanta, PulteGroup stands among the largest U.S. homebuilders, with operations spanning 47 markets through brands such as Centex, Pulte Homes, and Del Webb. Its fourth-quarter 2025 results topped expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.88 and revenue at $4.61 billion, even as both metrics fell from the prior year. For the full year, the company delivered 29,572 homes and generated $16.7 billion in home-sale revenue, producing net income of $2.2 billion.
Several factors have shaped recent sentiment. Net new orders increased 4% in the quarter, and management highlighted a balanced buyer mix—roughly 38% first-time, 40% move-up, and 22% active-adult—that cushions any single segment. The firm ended 2025 with $2.0 billion in cash, an 11.2% debt-to-capital ratio, and a net cash position overall. It also repurchased $1.2 billion in shares during the year and continues to rank at the top for total shareholder return among homebuilders over both the past year and the past decade.
Toll Brothers’ Position and Recent Results
Based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, Toll Brothers leads the luxury segment, operating in more than 60 markets across 24 states. Its focus on higher-end buyers has traditionally provided some insulation from affordability strains. In fiscal 2025, the company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price near $960,000, achieving record home-sales revenue of $10.8 billion and an adjusted gross margin of 27.3%.
Recent signals point to caution. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.58 per share missed estimates, and management noted soft demand in many markets. Backlog value dropped 15.4% year over year to $5.5 billion, while the cancellation rate climbed to 8.3% from 5.9% the previous year. The firm also intends to exit its multifamily development business. Even so, Toll Brothers has stayed disciplined on pricing and pace, and JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight in early December 2025.
Side-by-Side: Diversification, Balance Sheets, and Margins
The fundamental difference lies in diversification versus specialization. PHM spreads risk across buyer groups and geographies, which has helped maintain order growth even as first-time and move-up demand weakens. TOL depends on a wealthier clientele less affected by rates, yet it now faces a shrinking backlog and higher cancellations that reduce near-term visibility.
Financial strength favors PHM, which holds a net cash position and an 11.2% debt-to-capital ratio compared with TOL’s 26% debt-to-capital and 15.3% net debt-to-capital. Margin profiles vary as well: TOL delivers higher gross margins (27.3% adjusted in fiscal 2025), while PHM reported a 24.7% fourth-quarter home-sale gross margin but compensates with greater volume and capital efficiency. Market sentiment has been steadier for PHM, supported by stronger capital-return momentum, whereas TOL contends with more uncertain demand despite recent analyst backing.
AI-Assisted Perspective on the Comparison
From what I see, Tickeron’s AI tools point to PHM as the stronger choice here. PulteGroup shows more consistent trend stability, a robust balance sheet, and balanced growth drivers across segments, suggesting greater durability in the current setting. Toll Brothers’ luxury focus yields higher margins, but its declining backlog, rising cancellations, and softer order outlook add near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic and could change as rates and consumer sentiment evolve.
Using AI Tools to Refine Stock Analysis
When comparing names like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots for additional perspective. The platform provides hundreds of bots with varying strategies, timeframes, and performance data, and the curated Trending AI Robots section surfaces those best aligned with current conditions. Reviewing them adds a data-driven layer that complements the fundamental review above.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
PHM in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PHM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 64 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.939) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (13.437) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
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a company which engages in the homebuilding business
Industry Homebuilding
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