S&P Global (SPGI) Delivers Steady Q2 2026 Results After Mobility Spin-Off
Key Takeaways
- Revenue topped expectations: GAAP revenue reached $4.15 billion, up 10% year-over-year, exceeding the analyst consensus of approximately $4.12 billion.
- Adjusted EPS beat estimates: Adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.83, a 23% increase from $3.92 a year ago, surpassing the FactSet consensus of $4.81.
- Ratings and Indices delivered record quarters: The Ratings division grew revenue 17% year-over-year, while Indices posted its 13th consecutive record quarter with 20% growth.
- Initial reporting confusion weighed on shares: Early headlines citing a pro forma EPS figure of $4.08 against higher consensus estimates triggered a premarket sell-off, with the stock declining more than 3%.
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance set at $17.50–$17.75: The company updated its 2026 outlook to reflect the July 1 spin-off of Mobility Global.
- Share buyback program expanded: S&P Global now expects to repurchase more than $7 billion in shares during 2026, up nearly $3 billion from prior targets.
Why This Quarter Matters
S&P Global’s second-quarter 2026 report carried extra weight for two main reasons. It was the first earnings release after the July 1 completion of the Mobility Global spin-off, which has reshaped the company into a more focused provider of financial intelligence, credit ratings, benchmarks, and analytics. The quarter also served as a test of whether the benchmark-driven model—anchored by Ratings, Indices, and the Platts energy franchise, which together account for roughly 65% of revenue and 80% of operating profit—could maintain momentum amid geopolitical uncertainty, commodity price swings, and uneven capital markets activity. With shares down roughly 15.8% year-to-date heading into the report, I was watching closely for evidence of durable organic growth and margin expansion.
The Reported Numbers
S&P Global reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP revenue of $4.146 billion, a 10% increase from $3.755 billion in the prior-year period, beating analyst consensus estimates near $4.12 billion. On a pro forma basis excluding the now-spun-off Mobility division, revenue rose 11% to $3.678 billion. GAAP net income climbed 14% to $1.217 billion, translating to diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.12, compared to $3.50 a year earlier.
Adjusted diluted EPS, which excludes one-time items, increased 23% year-over-year to $4.83, edging past the FactSet consensus of $4.81. Adjusted operating profit rose 15% to $1.998 billion, and the adjusted operating margin expanded by 200 basis points to 54.3%, reflecting disciplined expense management and the high incremental profitability of the company’s benchmark products. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
By segment, Ratings posted a standout performance with 17% revenue growth to approximately $1.34 billion, driven by robust debt issuance activity. Indices generated $534 million in revenue, up 20% year-over-year—its 13th consecutive record quarter—fueled by asset-linked fees and exchange-traded derivatives activity. Market Intelligence grew 6% to roughly $1.29 billion, while Energy rose a more modest 3%, pressured by geopolitical uncertainty, sanctions volatility, and fluctuating commodity prices that affected customer renewal patterns.
The headline numbers were briefly obscured by reporting confusion. Several financial data services initially circulated a pro forma net income per share figure of $4.08—representing earnings excluding Mobility—against consensus estimates as high as $4.75, creating the appearance of a significant miss. In reality, the company’s adjusted EPS of $4.83 met or slightly exceeded the prevailing consensus on most major platforms. The episode underscored how post-spin-off complexity can temporarily distort market perception.
Market Reaction
Shares of SPGI closed at $439.83 on Monday, July 27, ahead of the report. In premarket trading on July 28, the stock initially dropped as much as 5.2% to around $416.94, largely driven by the early misreporting of the pro forma EPS figure versus inflated consensus estimates. As the adjusted EPS beat became more widely understood, the decline moderated, though the stock remained down approximately 3% to 4% in the trading session. The reaction reflected a mix of genuine disappointment in softer-than-expected full-year organic growth guidance and the temporary information asymmetry caused by the spin-off’s accounting complexity. Broader sentiment remained cautious, with Jefferies noting that while margin and EPS guidance were in line, the organic revenue growth outlook of 6% to 8% fell short of the firm’s 8.8% projection. Analysts maintained a predominantly positive stance, with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and a mean price target of approximately $533.59, implying significant upside from post-earnings levels.
Forward Outlook and What to Watch
Looking ahead, S&P Global’s updated full-year 2026 guidance provides a clear framework for investor expectations. The company projects organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6.0% to 8.0%, adjusted operating margin expansion of 75 to 100 basis points excluding OSTTRA, and adjusted EPS of $17.50 to $17.75, representing 10% to 12% year-over-year growth. GAAP EPS is expected between $16.35 and $16.60.
At the divisional level, management raised guidance for its two strongest performers. Ratings organic constant-currency revenue growth was lifted to a range of 5% to 8%, up from the previous 4% to 7%. Indices guidance moved higher to 12% to 14%, from 10% to 12%. Energy and Market Intelligence guidance remained unchanged at 4.5% to 6% and 5.5% to 7%, respectively.
Several catalysts merit close attention in the second half of 2026. The expanded $7 billion share repurchase program, representing more than 5% of market capitalization, signals management’s confidence in free cash flow generation, with adjusted free cash flow for the second half (excluding Mobility) projected at $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion. The company also plans to issue approximately $2 billion in debt to support the buyback, with gross leverage expected to reach 2.7x to 2.8x EBITDA by year-end before declining in 2027.
On the operational front, the July acquisitions of datacenterHawk and Agusto & Company point to ongoing bolt-on expansion, while new leadership and a revamped operating model for Market Intelligence aim to reinvigorate growth in that segment. Investors should also monitor debt issuance volumes—a key driver of Ratings revenue—and the trajectory of exchange-traded derivatives activity feeding Indices growth. Geopolitical developments and sanctions policy will continue to influence the Energy division’s performance, particularly in customer retention and usage-based revenue streams.
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
SPGI's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPGI turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPGI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPGI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPGI as a result. In 51 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPGI advanced for three days, in 195 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
SPGI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
SPGI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPGI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for SPGI moved below the 200-day moving average on September 15, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPGI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SPGI entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SPGI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.705) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (24.097) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.893) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.570) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPGI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
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