GET DAILY SIGNALSStarbucks (SBUX) Delivers EPS Beat in Q4 as Comparable Sales Climb
Key Takeaways
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.80, beating the consensus estimate of $0.71, while GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) EPS came in at $0.59.
- Consolidated net revenue declined 4% to $9.1 billion, slightly below expectations, driven by the conversion of Starbucks China retail operations to a licensed joint venture model.
- Global comparable coffeehouse sales rose 7.2%, with North America up 7.9% and International up just 0.9%.
- For fiscal 2027, Starbucks guided non-GAAP EPS to $3.15–$3.25 and North America comparable sales growth of approximately 4.0%.
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Why This Quarter Matters
Starbucks' fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results mark a pivotal checkpoint in the company's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy. The report closes a fiscal year in which management worked to refocus the brand on its coffeehouse experience while simultaneously executing a major structural change: shifting its China retail business to a licensed joint venture model. Because that transition removes a large portion of company-operated revenue, the top-line comparison is unusually complex this quarter. I am watching closely to determine whether North American momentum and margin expansion are strong enough to offset the China revenue step-down, making same-store sales, operating margin, and forward guidance the most important signals in this release.
What the Numbers Show
Starbucks reported adjusted EPS of $0.80 for its fiscal fourth quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.71 by $0.09. GAAP EPS was $0.59. Consolidated net revenue declined 4% year over year to $9.1 billion, modestly below the roughly $9.2 billion analysts expected, largely reflecting the transition of Starbucks China retail operations to a licensed joint venture model completed earlier in fiscal 2026. To get a broader view, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Comparable coffeehouse sales were a bright spot. Global comparable sales rose 7.2%, ahead of the roughly 6.2% Wall Street anticipated and marking a fifth consecutive quarter of better-than-expected same-store growth. North America comparable sales climbed 7.9%, supported by higher average ticket. International comparable sales rose 0.9%, falling short of expectations for growth around 3%. Adjusted operating margin expanded 460 basis points to 14.0%, while GAAP operating margin reached 10.8%, up 790 basis points. Starbucks added 303 net new coffeehouses in the quarter, ending with 41,607 locations globally, and closed roughly 250 company-operated North America coffeehouses in September under its portfolio review.
For the full fiscal year, revenue grew 2% to $37.9 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 28% to $2.72. The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.63 per share.
Market Reaction
Initial market reaction was muted-to-negative. Shares of SBUX edged down roughly 1% in after-hours trading following the release, as the earnings beat and strong comparable sales growth were offset by the revenue miss and softer international performance. Investors appeared to weigh the durable strength of the North America business against lingering questions about the China transition and softer demand outside the U.S. The positive guidance for fiscal 2027 provided some support, but the revenue shortfall and International comparable sales weakness tempered enthusiasm heading into the new fiscal year.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, Starbucks enters fiscal 2027 with a clear set of priorities and several key variables for investors to track. Management guided to non-GAAP EPS of $3.15 to $3.25, North America comparable sales growth of approximately 4.0%, and a non-GAAP operating margin of 13.5% to 14.0%.
One important detail is that fiscal 2027 is a 53-week year rather than the usual 52-week year. The extra week is expected to add roughly $700 million to revenue, and its impact will land in the fourth quarter. Management projects consolidated net revenue to decline approximately 1% for the year, primarily because of the China retail transition.
Investors will also watch the pace of store expansion, with roughly 1,200 net new coffeehouses planned globally and leadership expected to come from International markets. The planned resumption of share repurchases, mentioned by CFO Cathy Smith, adds another element to monitor alongside the recently raised dividend.
Key factors going forward include the trajectory of North American ticket and transaction growth, the ability to stabilize International comparable sales, and execution of the China licensed joint venture transition without further revenue leakage.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Process
In my regular research, I turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by fundamentals, technical patterns, and industry trends. It helps me compare names like SBUX against peers and spot ideas more efficiently than manual methods. The tool has become a useful part of my workflow when evaluating earnings releases and sector moves.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SBUX in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 38 cases where SBUX's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SBUX as a result. In 49 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
SBUX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +0.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 171 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-15.330) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.457). P/E Ratio (59.653) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.628). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.128) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of coffee and tea
Industry Restaurants
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