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Aug 14, 2023

The Oil Refining/Marketing segment ($CVX, $XOM, $CVI, $DK, $MPC, $HEP) Surge by +12.24%

The Oil Refining sector has experienced a significant increase of +12.24% in its performance over the past month.
Tickers in sector - $HEP$TRGP$PSX$PBF$UGP$NS$CVI, $XOM$CVX, $MPC$VLO.
Trend Trader, Long Only: Valuation & Hurst Model (TA&FA) -  Annualized Return +15%
Swing Trader, Long Only: Growth Model (Diversified)
 -  Annualized Return +13%


The Oil Refining/Marketing segment has experienced a remarkable surge of +12.24%, indicating a strong positive momentum in the market. This surge is underpinned by a range of indicators and metrics that suggest a favorable outlook for stocks within this sector. In this article, we delve into the important factors driving this surge and highlight key themes and notable tickers within the Oil Refining/Marketing segment.

Positive Outlook Supported by 15 Indicators

The Oil Refining/Marketing stocks are currently enjoying a positive outlook, as indicated by the 15 Indicator Stock Fear & Greed Index. This sentiment is further affirmed by Tickeron's positive outlook for this group, predicting a potential increase of over 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 73%. Moreover, the ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the last month was a strong 1.97 to 1, reflecting strong market interest in these stocks.

Momentum Indicator Reinforces Positivity

Six stocks within the Oil Refining/Marketing segment exhibit a similar positive trend according to the Momentum indicator, with an average likelihood of 73%. This alignment in momentum signals suggests a collective strength in the upward movement of these stocks.

Notable Companies

The most notable companies within the Oil Refining/Marketing group include Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), BP plc (NYSE:BP), MARATHON PETROLEUM Corp (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), and Targa Resources Corp (NYSE:TRGP). These companies are pivotal in refining crude oil into various petroleum products and are significant players in the downstream operations of the oil business.

Theme Description

The Oil Refining/Marketing segment encompasses companies engaged in refining crude oil into various petroleum products and marketing these products to end-users. These businesses are positioned within the downstream operations of the oil industry, focusing on post-production processes. Notably, during periods of low oil prices, downstream businesses are relatively less affected or may even benefit, as their procurement costs for crude oil decrease. Some of the leading U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, and Valero Energy Corp.

Market Capitalization Insights

The average market capitalization across the Oil Refining/Marketing Theme is $82.2 billion. Within this group, market caps range from $232.6 million to $447.7 billion. Exxon Mobil (XOM) boasts the highest valuation within this segment at $447.7 billion, while Targa Resources Corp (TREC) holds the lowest valuation at $232.6 million.

Price Growth Highlights

Across all stocks in the Oil Refining/Marketing Theme, the average weekly price growth is 2.19%. The monthly and quarterly average price growth rates are notably higher at 12.24% and 10.51%, respectively. The highest weekly price growth was experienced by HEP at 8.73%, while NS saw a decline of -10.18%.

Notable Price Movements

  • NuStar Energy (NS, $15.53) suffered a substantial weekly loss of -10.61%, signaling a potential downtrend reversal.
  • Chevron (CVX, $161.82) emerged as a top weekly gainer, surging by +5.46%.
  • BP (BP, $37.18) also exhibited strong growth, with a +5.27% jump in the same week.

Volume Dynamics

The average weekly volume growth for stocks within the Oil Refining/Marketing Theme stood at -10.49%. Over a monthly period, the average volume growth rate was -6.08%, while the average quarterly volume growth reached -39.83%.

Momentum Indicator Insights

  1. Exxon Mobil (XOM): The Momentum Indicator turned positive on August 10, 2023, signaling a potential new upward trend. Historical analysis indicates a 68% chance of a higher move following this indicator shift.

  2. CVI Positive Uptrend: CVI exhibited a +4.11% uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on July 31, 2023. This upward movement has an 80% likelihood of continuing.

  3. HEP's Bullish Moving Averages: HEP's 50-day moving average crossed bullishly above its 200-day moving average on July 11, 2023, suggesting a positive long-term signal for the stock's upward trajectory.


The surge of +12.24% in the Oil Refining/Marketing segment is driven by robust indicators and positive momentum across various stocks within the theme. The positive outlook, reinforced by the Momentum indicator and Tickeron's predictions, suggests a potential for continued growth. Notable companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP are playing key roles in this segment's positive movement. Investors should closely monitor these trends for potential opportunities in the dynamic Oil Refining/Marketing sector.

Related Ticker: XOM, CVI, CVX, HEP, MPC, DK

XOM's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for XOM entered a downward trend on June 24, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 175 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 175 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

XOM moved below its 50-day moving average on June 03, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XOM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 28, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XOM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 63 cases where XOM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XOM as a result. In of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM just turned positive on June 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

XOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 71%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.267) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.218). P/E Ratio (13.160) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.146). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.848) is also within normal values, averaging (4.841). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.416) is also within normal values, averaging (0.979).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), BP plc (NYSE:BP), Petroleo Brasileiro Sa-Petrobras ADS (REP 1 Common Share) (NYSE:PBR), Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Industry description

Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Integrated Oil Industry is 61.27B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39.76K to 461.22B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 461.22B. The lowest valued company is PGAS at 39.76K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 9%. OGFGY experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while POGS experienced the biggest fall at -10%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 59%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 49% and the average quarterly volume growth was 122%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 31
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 64
Profit Risk Rating: 64
Seasonality Score: -39 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products

Industry IntegratedOil

Integrated Oil
22777 Springwoods Village Parkway
+1 972 940-6000
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