USO Gains +26% Over 30 Days on Renewed Geopolitical Risks, Down -11% for the Quarter

Key Takeaways

• USO surged approximately 26% over the past 30 days as escalating US-Iran military tensions reignited a geopolitical risk premium across crude oil markets.
• The fund plunged roughly 11% over the broader quarter, reflecting the mid-June US-Iran peace agreement that briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a historic crude selloff.
• Renewed threats to maritime chokepoints — including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — alongside falling US crude inventories have been the primary catalysts behind the recent rebound.
• USO's structure as a near-month WTI crude oil futures vehicle makes it highly sensitive to short-term supply disruption fears and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
• OPEC+ continues to raise production targets, but actual exportable supply remains constrained by restricted shipping access through key waterways.

USO Overview and How It Tracks Crude Oil

The United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is a passively managed commodity pool that seeks to track the daily percentage changes in the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. Launched in April 2006 by USCF Investments, USO achieves its investment objective primarily by holding near-month NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts, supplemented by cash equivalents and short-term government money market instruments.

As of late July 2026, the fund held approximately 8 to 9 securities with total assets under management (AUM) of around $2.1 billion to $2.5 billion. The portfolio is dominated by front-month and second-month WTI crude oil futures, alongside substantial Treasury and government money market collateral positions. The fund carries a net expense ratio of 0.86%. Unlike equity ETFs, USO does not hold corporate stocks; its performance is almost entirely driven by movements in crude oil futures curves, roll yield dynamics, and the interest earned on collateral holdings. This concentrated commodity exposure explains why the fund exhibits extreme sensitivity to geopolitical supply shocks and demand-side macroeconomic shifts.

USO Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. the Quarter

USO has climbed approximately 26% over the past 30 days, recovering sharply from the multi-month trough reached in early July. The fund traded near $103 in the opening days of July 2026, its lowest level since before the US-Iran conflict began in late February. By the end of July, USO had rebounded above $130, reflecting one of the sharpest monthly rallies since the initial phase of the war.

Over the full quarter, however, USO is down roughly 11%, measured from the end of April when it traded around $147. This quarterly decline captures the dramatic collapse that occurred in mid-June, when the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that permitted the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures tumbled approximately 30% during the second quarter as more than 60 million barrels of previously trapped oil re-entered global markets. USO's recovery over the past 30 days therefore represents a partial retracement of that earlier selloff, driven by renewed conflict rather than a return to the elevated price levels seen in late April and May.

What Drove the Recent 30-Day Rally in USO

The 30-day rally in USO has been overwhelmingly driven by the re-escalation of military conflict between the United States and Iran, which reversed the brief period of market calm that followed the mid-June peace accord. Several interrelated catalysts have contributed. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to other energy vehicles during similar volatility spikes.

First, the tentative US-Iran ceasefire collapsed in early July when President Trump declared negotiations over and the US resumed strikes on Iranian military targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by warning it would blockade all oil exports from West Asia and launched ballistic missile attacks on US bases in Jordan. These developments rekindled fears of a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies historically transited.

Second, the conflict expanded geographically. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20 and began targeting Saudi-linked tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a second major chokepoint for global crude flows. Kuwait reported that Iranian strikes damaged key oil infrastructure, while a drone attack sparked fires on gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port, threatening the Suez Canal route.

Third, US commercial crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels during the week ending July 24, leaving stockpiles approximately 7% below their five-year seasonal average, according to Energy Information Administration data. Tightening domestic supply compounded the geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude futures surged above $85 per barrel by late July, directly lifting USO's near-month futures holdings.

Finally, institutional flows into USO accelerated as traders sought direct crude exposure amid the turmoil. The fund's AUM expanded from approximately $1.88 billion at end-June to over $2.1 billion by mid-July, reflecting renewed speculative and hedging demand.

What Drove USO Performance Over the Last Quarter

USO's negative quarterly performance of approximately 11% tells the story of one of the most volatile periods in crude oil markets in years. In late April and early May, crude prices and USO traded near multi-year highs as the original US-Iran conflict had largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, creating an acute supply shortage. Brent crude briefly exceeded $100 per barrel and USO traded above $150.

The landscape transformed abruptly in mid-June when Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the strait. The agreement unleashed a flood of trapped crude: Iran alone exported an estimated 40 million barrels in the days following the deal. Major Persian Gulf producers — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE — rapidly restored exports to near pre-war levels. OPEC+ simultaneously approved successive monthly production target increases of 188,000 barrels per day for June, July, and August. The combination of restored supply and rising quotas overwhelmed demand, sending Brent below $72 and USO toward $103.

Saudi Arabia compounded the bearish pressure by slashing its August official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $11 per barrel — the largest monthly cut in over two decades — signaling a battle for market share. China, the world's largest crude importer, remained largely absent from spot markets, having reduced imports by approximately 5 million barrels per day compared with pre-war levels. These macro and structural forces drove USO sharply lower before the geopolitical pendulum swung back in July.

USO Outlook: Key Developments to Monitor

The near-term trajectory of USO remains tightly linked to developments in the Middle East conflict, particularly the status of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Any credible diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium that has driven the recent rally, while further escalation — especially strikes on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or the UAE — could push crude prices sharply higher.

OPEC+ producers meet on August 2, with markets watching for signals on whether the alliance will approve another 188,000 barrel-per-day increase for September. Even if higher targets are announced, actual exportable supply may remain constrained as long as shipping routes face security threats and elevated insurance costs.

US inventory data will remain a critical barometer. Refinery utilization near 97% and declining crude stockpiles leave limited buffer against further supply disruptions. The ongoing depletion of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — after a record 400-million-barrel release — also means the government has reduced capacity to intervene in physical markets.

Beyond geopolitics, the demand outlook presents a mixed picture. Global oil demand growth is projected to slow to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, with China's import appetite remaining subdued. Lower crude prices could eventually stimulate demand recovery, but for now the market is caught between bearish supply normalization and bullish conflict-driven disruption risk. Investors in USO should expect continued elevated volatility and monitor shipping data, diplomatic signals, and inventory reports as primary indicators of the fund's direction over the coming months.

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Contributor

Jimmy Landsman|Expert

My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.

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