GET DAILY SIGNALSWaystar Holding Corp. (WAY) Delivers Q3 Beat but Soft Guidance Prompts -7% Drop
Key Takeaways
- Waystar reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $325.6 million, up 21% year over year and slightly above the roughly $323.4 million consensus estimate.
- Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.44, topping the $0.41 analyst consensus, while GAAP diluted EPS of $0.16 fell short of expectations.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $139.3 million, a 43% margin, up 24% from the prior year.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.277 billion to $1.287 billion landed below Wall Street's $1.29 billion consensus, driving a sharp after-hours selloff.
- Shares fell roughly 7% after the report as investors weighed strong quarterly results against a softer near-term revenue outlook.
Understanding Waystar's Business and Why This Quarter Matters
Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) provides healthcare payments software that helps hospitals, health systems, and physician practices handle eligibility checks, claims processing, and reimbursement. Its revenue tracks closely with overall claims volume and provider technology spending, so the company often serves as a useful read on healthcare revenue cycle trends. Management has been investing in artificial intelligence and agentic features to automate more of that cycle, and this quarter offered a useful check on whether those efforts are gaining traction commercially.
Breaking Down the Q3 Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Waystar posted total revenue of $325.6 million, a 21% year-over-year increase that edged past the consensus estimate of about $323.4 million. Organic revenue grew 10%. Subscription revenue climbed 34% to $180.7 million, while volume-based revenue rose 8% to $142.9 million. Provider revenue increased 28% to $243.4 million, and patient revenue grew 5% to $82.2 million.
On a GAAP basis, net income was $31.0 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, below the $0.21 consensus. Non-GAAP net income reached $87.1 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, beating the $0.41 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $139.3 million for a 43% margin, up 24% from a year earlier. The company generated $103.9 million in operating cash flow and $114.8 million in unlevered free cash flow. It ended the quarter with 1,488 clients generating more than $100,000 in trailing twelve-month revenue, up 14% year over year, and a net revenue retention rate of 108%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
How the Market Responded
Despite the profitability beats, shares of WAY fell roughly 7% in after-hours trading. The move reflected full-year 2026 revenue guidance that came in below expectations. Management projected fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.277 billion to $1.287 billion, with a midpoint of $1.282 billion versus the roughly $1.29 billion consensus. The implied fourth-quarter slowdown was attributed to a shift from printed to digital patient statements, timing around Iodine revenue recognition, and tough year-over-year comparisons from rapid implementations last year. From what I see, investors remain highly sensitive to forward guidance even when current results exceed estimates.
What to Watch Going Forward
Waystar raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $543 million to $549 million, implying a roughly 43% margin, and projected adjusted EPS of $1.63 to $1.71. These updates suggest continued confidence in profitability even as revenue growth moderates.
Several factors will be worth monitoring. Adoption of the AltitudeAI-powered and agentic capabilities, which accounted for about 43% of third-quarter bookings, remains central to the strategy. Conversion of larger platform deals will also matter, especially given longer implementation and ramp periods. Subscription and volume-based trends, net revenue retention, and high-value client growth will serve as key demand indicators. Cost discipline will be important as well, given the notable year-over-year rise in operating expenses. These elements will determine whether Waystar can maintain low double-digit organic growth while protecting its 40%-plus adjusted EBITDA margin. I’m watching this closely as the company balances innovation with execution.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
One tool I’ve found helpful for digging into earnings-driven moves like this one is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It lets me filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals to surface comparable ideas and track momentum shifts across the sector. I typically run quick scans after reports like Waystar’s to put the numbers in broader context without spending hours on manual work.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Aroon Indicator for WAY shows an upward move is likely
WAY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 02, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 67 of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WAY as a result. In 35 of 44 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +0.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WAY advanced for three days, in 110 of 139 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WAY moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 15 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 23 of 32 cases where WAY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for WAY turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 18 of the 25 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WAY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
WAY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WAY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.354) is normal, around the industry mean (4.699). P/E Ratio (39.634) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.248). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.133). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.228) is also within normal values, averaging (6.065).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WAY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry ServicestotheHealthIndustry
Advertisement