Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: +6.9% EPS Growth on Tap
Key Takeaways
- Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is scheduled to report third quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, before the market opens.
- Wall Street consensus points to earnings of roughly $1.85 per share, up about 6.9% from the prior-year quarter, on revenue near $22.15 billion.
- Net interest income (NII), the money the bank earns from lending minus what it pays on deposits, is expected to reach about $12.63 billion, up roughly 5.7% year over year.
- The bank enters the report with momentum: it beat consensus estimates in three of the past four quarters, including a notable beat in the second quarter of 2026.
- Investors will focus on loan growth, net interest margin, expense control, and any update to management's full-year guidance.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Wells Fargo's quarterly earnings report serves as a useful barometer for consumer banking, commercial lending, and broader credit conditions in the U.S. economy. The bank has been working through the effects of a long-standing regulatory asset cap, and its improving profitability has attracted renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors. In the second quarter of 2026, the company posted a solid beat, helped by higher net interest income, growth in non-interest income, and careful expense management. With the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates in September 2026, this report should provide a timely look at how the bank's loan book, deposit costs, and funding approach are adapting to the changing rate backdrop. I also checked this using Tickeron's AI Screener to see how WFC compares to peers in the industry.
What the Numbers Suggest
Analysts expect Wells Fargo to report earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $1.85 for the third quarter of 2026, which would represent a roughly 6.9% improvement from the year-ago period. Revenue is projected to come in near $22.15 billion, up about 3.3% year over year, according to consensus estimates compiled by Zacks.
A key metric in focus is net interest income (NII), the difference between what the bank earns on loans and investments and what it pays out on deposits. Consensus places NII at about $12.63 billion, up roughly 5.7% from a year earlier. Non-interest income, which includes fees from investment banking, trading, and asset management, is expected to be around $9.58 billion.
Investors will also watch net interest margin (NIM), a profitability ratio that measures how efficiently the bank turns its interest-earning assets into income. Management has previously signaled that NIM could compress in the third quarter before stabilizing, so commentary on margins and deposit costs will be a key driver of the market's reaction. Full-year guidance remains a focal point, with the company having previously maintained an outlook for roughly $50 billion in NII and about $55.7 billion in expenses.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the third quarter report is cautiously optimistic. Wells Fargo has a solid track record of outperforming consensus, beating EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, including a roughly 13% surprise in the second quarter of 2026. That history has lifted expectations, but it also raises the bar for the stock to react positively.
Key risk factors heading into the print include persistent inflation, pressure on lower-income consumers, and elevated mortgage rates near 7%, which have weighed on home lending and refinancing activity. Analysts also note that the consensus EPS estimate has seen only modest upward revisions, and some measures of estimate momentum have turned slightly negative, suggesting limited room for a major upside surprise. As a result, the market's response will likely hinge less on whether the bank beats headline numbers and more on the quality of its guidance, its commentary on net interest margin, and any signals about credit quality trends.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following the report, investors should watch several factors that could shape Wells Fargo's trajectory over the coming quarters. First, management's commentary on net interest margin will be critical. The bank has indicated that margin compression may ease after the third quarter, and any confirmation of stabilization or improvement would likely be well received.
Second, loan growth and credit quality deserve close attention. While commercial and industrial loan demand has remained healthy, persistent inflation and pressure on lower-income consumers raise questions about potential increases in loan delinquencies and charge-offs. Monitoring the allowance for credit losses and management's outlook on asset quality will help investors gauge the health of the bank's loan portfolio.
Third, expense discipline remains a central theme. Wells Fargo has been working to streamline operations through branch optimization, headcount reductions, and technology investments. Whether those efforts continue to contain cost growth will influence the bank's progress toward its stated goal of a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 17% to 18%.
Finally, capital returns will be in focus. The company raised its dividend by 11% earlier in 2026 and has been actively repurchasing shares, so investors will listen for any updates on buyback activity and the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key measure of financial strength and regulatory capital.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
In preparing for earnings season, I often turn to Tickeron's AI Screener to quickly filter banks and financial stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. It helps me compare WFC against peers on metrics like revenue growth and margin trends without manually sifting through dozens of screens. The tool also surfaces potential breakout candidates or watchlist ideas that align with the themes I'm tracking in this sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
WFC's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for WFC moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WFC as a result. In 50 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WFC just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where WFC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +4.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WFC advanced for three days, in 204 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
WFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 146 of 268 cases where WFC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
WFC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WFC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.482) is normal, around the industry mean (1.866). WFC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (11.746) as compared to the industry average of (14.888). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.264) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.144) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WFC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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