Why Does Alphabet Drop While NVIDIA Rises?
NVIDIA’s stock closed at $117.06, marking a 3.10% gain for the day, according to market updates shared on X. This upward movement aligns with NVIDIA’s resilience in a volatile 2025, despite a year-to-date decline of approximately 15%. Several factors contributed to the chipmaker’s strong performance on May 7.
First, NVIDIA continues to capitalize on robust demand for its AI-driven data center chips, particularly the Blackwell architecture. Recent reports indicate that major cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are maintaining or increasing their capital expenditures (capex) for AI infrastructure, with Amazon projecting up to $105 billion and Alphabet reaffirming $75 billion for 2025. These commitments signal sustained demand for NVIDIA’s GPUs, which remain the gold standard for AI applications. Investors appear reassured that concerns about a potential slowdown in AI spending, sparked earlier in the year by developments like DeepSeek’s cost-efficient AI model, are overblown.
Second, NVIDIA’s strategic initiatives are bolstering investor confidence. The company’s push into AI cloud services, potentially competing with hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft, has sparked intrigue. Analyst Michael Elias from TD Cowen highlighted NVIDIA’s “large leasing deal” with Digital Realty for data center capacity, suggesting the company could outpace peers in data center leasing in 2025. Additionally, NVIDIA’s upcoming Computex 2025 keynote by CEO Jensen Huang, scheduled for May 19, is expected to unveil further AI advancements, adding to the bullish sentiment.
Despite challenges like export restrictions to China and a $5.5 billion write-off for its H20 GPU, NVIDIA’s forward-looking guidance remains strong. The company projects $43 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, a 65% jump from the prior year, driven by Blackwell processor sales. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25, NVIDIA’s valuation appears attractive compared to its historical averages, making it a compelling buy for investors betting on AI’s long-term growth.
Alphabet’s Slide: Regulatory and Competitive Pressures Weigh Heavy
In stark contrast, Alphabet’s stock plummeted, with GOOGL closing at $151.38, down 7.26% for the day. The sharp decline reflects a confluence of challenges that rattled investors on May 7.
A key driver of Alphabet’s downturn was negative sentiment tied to regulatory scrutiny. Reports surfaced that the U.S. Department of Justice was considering breaking up Google’s search business, citing antitrust concerns over its dominance in online search and advertising. This news, though not officially confirmed, spooked investors, as a potential breakup could disrupt Alphabet’s core revenue streams. The threat of regulatory action comes on the heels of ongoing lawsuits and investigations into Google’s practices, amplifying uncertainty.
Additionally, Alphabet faced competitive pressures in the AI race. While the company reaffirmed its $75 billion capex for 2025 to bolster AI capabilities, some investors worry that Google is lagging behind rivals like OpenAI and DeepSeek in generative AI innovation. Posts on X speculated that Alphabet might shift spending toward its proprietary TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) over NVIDIA’s GPUs, potentially signaling a strategic pivot that could impact margins or AI performance. Moreover, DeepSeek’s cost-efficient AI model, reportedly trained for a fraction of the cost of Google’s models, raised questions about Alphabet’s AI spending efficiency, further denting investor confidence.
Alphabet’s stock was also caught in broader market volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1%, and the Nasdaq oscillated amid concerns over Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on tariffs and inflation. As a member of the “Magnificent Seven,” Alphabet’s 8.21%-8.42% drop (across GOOG and GOOGL tickers) was among the steepest, reflecting its vulnerability to macro and company-specific headwinds.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Aroon Indicator for NVDA shows an upward move is likely
NVDA's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 08, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 348 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 291 of the 348 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 57 cases where NVDA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
NVDA moved above its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 298 of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 55 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (23.419) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (7.473). P/E Ratio (28.100) is within average values for comparable stocks, (156.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.472) is also within normal values, averaging (3.749). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (44.558).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a manufacturer of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software
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