Key Takeaways
The daily chart of NVDA continues to form a classic higher‑high, higher‑low structure that began in early 2023. The most recent swing high near $131.26 aligns with the August 26th peak, while the swing low around $114.87‑$113.24 marks the latest consolidation base. This pattern suggests a prevailing bullish bias, yet the narrowing range and diminishing breakout volume hint at possible pull‑back risk.
Traders are watching several price zones that have repeatedly anchored NVDA’s moves:
On the daily timeframe, the 50‑day moving average sits near $100, providing dynamic support as the price trends upward. The 200‑day moving average hovers just above $97, reinforcing the intermediate support zone. Both averages have acted as price anchors during previous pull‑backs, and a close above the 200‑day line would reaffirm the medium‑term bullish bias.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index trades in the low‑to‑mid‑50s, comfortably below the 70 overbought threshold. This positioning indicates that buying pressure remains intact, yet an imminent move toward the 60‑70 band could precede a short‑term climax.
MACD: The MACD histogram has turned positive over the last few sessions, while the signal line remains flat near zero. This bullish divergence supports the view that momentum is building, but a cross above the zero line would be a cleaner confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
The breakout from the multi‑month symmetrical triangle earlier this month occurred on lower‑than‑average volume, suggesting limited conviction. However, the most recent daily session produced the highest share turnover in nearly a month, indicating that traders are actively re‑evaluating the $125–$131 range. Such volume spikes can amplify short‑squeeze dynamics if the price breaches $131.26 with continued buying pressure.
NVDA’s price has recently formed a rectangle (or consolidation) pattern between $114.87 and $131.26. A decisive close above the upper trendline would likely trigger a breakout, targeting the next resistance band at $136 and, subsequently, the all‑time‑high zone. Conversely, a break below $114.87 could see the price retest the $97 region, where the 50‑week moving average and prior March highs converge.
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Looking ahead, the most immediate test for bulls is a clean close above $131.26. A breakout could open the path to $136, with the next major hurdle at $140.76. Should the price fail to sustain above $131.26, the $114.87–$113.24 zone becomes the primary support, and a decisive breach may drive price toward $97 and, if pressure intensifies, the deeper $76 floor.
Key indicators to monitor include: RSI approaching the 60‑70 band, a MACD crossover above zero, and volume trends on breakout attempts. Traders should also keep an eye on the 200‑day moving average for confirmation of medium‑term strength.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVDA has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVDA jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVDA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 100% | +2.95% | ||
| LRCX - NVDA | 70% Closely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| KLAC - NVDA | 69% Closely correlated | +8.73% | ||
| AMAT - NVDA | 66% Closely correlated | +4.08% | ||
| TSM - NVDA | 66% Loosely correlated | +6.94% | ||
| AMKR - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | +4.66% | ||
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