Why Is Calumet (CLMT) Stock Down -2.64% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Calumet shares fell 2.64% on Friday, closing at $41.69, extending a two-day losing streak that has erased roughly 5.5% from the stock's value since Wednesday's close.
- Profit-taking was the primary catalyst, as traders locked in gains following a blistering rally that saw the stock surge more than 109% year-to-date and touch a 52-week high of $45.20 intraday on Thursday.
- Valuation concerns weighed on sentiment, with multiple analysts flagging the stock as overvalued relative to a widely cited fair value estimate of $38.80 amid thin margins and high leverage.
- Broader market and energy-sector headwinds compounded the selling pressure, as crude oil prices retreated more than 4% on Friday and technology stocks dragged major indices lower.
- Traders are now watching the upcoming Q2 earnings report scheduled for August 7 for clarity on operational momentum and the company's deleveraging progress.
Opening Summary
CLMT, the stock of Calumet, Inc. — an Indianapolis-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty branded products and renewable fuels — fell 2.64% in Friday's trading session, closing at $41.69, down $1.13 from the prior session's close of $42.82. The decline marked the second consecutive day of selling pressure after the stock hit a fresh 52-week high of $45.20 during Thursday's intraday trading, representing a sharp reversal from the euphoric rally that has propelled shares more than 109% higher year-to-date.
Profit-Taking After a Massive Rally
The most immediate driver behind the decline was straightforward profit-taking. CLMT has been one of the standout performers in the specialty chemicals and renewable fuels space this year, with shares rocketing from a 52-week low of $12.94 to as high as $45.20 — a gain of roughly 249%. Much of that enthusiasm was fueled by Calumet's early-July redemption of $100 million in 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028, a move that reinforced the company's commitment to deleveraging its heavily indebted balance sheet. Additionally, the MaxSAF 150 sustainable aviation fuel expansion project at its Montana Renewables subsidiary has captured investor imagination, promising to position Calumet as a key player in the fast-growing SAF market.
With those catalysts now largely priced in, traders used the mid-session Thursday reversal at the $45 level as a signal to lock in profits. Friday's session saw continued distribution, with volume of 1.42 million shares well above the average of roughly 983,000, indicating that institutional and retail sellers alike participated in the move.
Valuation Scrutiny and Fundamental Headwinds
Behind the selling sits a growing chorus of skepticism about Calumet's valuation. The stock's sharp ascent pushed its forward price-to-earnings multiple to approximately 61x, a demanding level for a company that reported a Q1 2026 net loss of $317 million — equivalent to earnings per share of negative $3.64, which badly missed analyst estimates of negative $0.57. The company's gross margins remain thin at roughly 7.4%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio hovers around 7x, leaving limited room for error. With a consensus analyst price target of approximately $36.75 — representing a potential downside of roughly 12% from Friday's close — the market appears to be reassessing whether the growth story can justify the premium.
Broader Energy and Market Context
Calumet's decline did not occur in isolation. Crude oil prices tumbled more than 4% on Friday, with Brent retreating from above $100 per barrel to around $96, as traders booked profits from the week's geopolitical rally and reports emerged that China had initiated efforts to resume stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran. The pullback in crude weighed broadly on energy-linked equities, even as the sector had posted strong weekly gains. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets struggled with their own crosscurrents: the S&P 500 finished essentially flat on Friday, but the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.64% as concerns over escalating AI capital expenditures continued to rattle technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a 0.46% gain, but all three major indices closed the week in the red.
New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on goods from 60 trading partners, combined with lingering anxiety over Middle East supply disruptions, created a risk-off undercurrent that likely accelerated profit-taking in high-momentum names like CLMT.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Friday's selloff was notable for its elevated volume, which came in roughly 45% above the 20-day average. The stock opened at $42.63, briefly pushed to an intraday high of $43.00, but ultimately slid to a session low of $41.17 before settling at $41.69. After-hours trading saw further erosion to $41.21, suggesting that selling pressure had not fully abated by the closing bell. Technically, the breach below $42 — a level that had served as support during the late-July consolidation — raises the possibility of a test of the 50-day moving average, which sits near $34. More broadly, CLMT remains well above its 200-day moving average of approximately $26.24, underscoring that the current pullback, while sharp, has not yet threatened the longer-term uptrend.
What Comes Next for CLMT
All eyes now turn to Calumet's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for August 7, 2026. Investors will be scrutinizing whether the operational improvements flagged by management — including the restart of the Shreveport facility and the commencement of MaxSAF 150 operations — translated into improved cash flow and margin performance. The Q1 earnings call had framed the massive $317 million net loss as largely driven by non-cash mark-to-market items and RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) adjustments, but bulls will need to see concrete evidence of progress on the bottom line to rekindle upward momentum.
Key risks include continued volatility in crude oil prices and refining margins, potential shifts in renewable fuel policy that could impact SAF economics, and the persistent challenge of a $2.3 billion long-term debt load against deeply negative shareholder equity. On the other hand, if crack spreads remain elevated and the specialty products segment continues to execute on its pricing strategy, the deleveraging narrative could regain traction. For now, the stock appears to be in a consolidation phase as the market digests the magnitude of its year-to-date gains.
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Momentum Indicator for CLMT turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CLMT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 26, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLMT just turned positive on June 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CLMT moved above its 50-day moving average on June 25, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLMT advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 232 cases where CLMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CLMT moved out of overbought territory on July 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 55 cases where CLMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLMT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CLMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (7.177). P/E Ratio (27.068) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.557). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (72.199). CLMT has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.021). P/S Ratio (0.868) is also within normal values, averaging (69.593).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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