GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Calumet (CLMT) Stock Down -2.64% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Calumet shares fell 2.64% on Friday, closing at $41.69, extending a two-day losing streak that has erased roughly 5.5% from the stock's value since Wednesday's close.
- Profit-taking was the primary catalyst, as traders locked in gains following a blistering rally that saw the stock surge more than 109% year-to-date and touch a 52-week high of $45.20 intraday on Thursday.
- Valuation concerns weighed on sentiment, with multiple analysts flagging the stock as overvalued relative to a widely cited fair value estimate of $38.80 amid thin margins and high leverage.
- Broader market and energy-sector headwinds compounded the selling pressure, as crude oil prices retreated more than 4% on Friday and technology stocks dragged major indices lower.
- Traders are now watching the upcoming Q2 earnings report scheduled for August 7 for clarity on operational momentum and the company's deleveraging progress.
Opening Summary
CLMT, the stock of Calumet, Inc. — an Indianapolis-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty branded products and renewable fuels — fell 2.64% in Friday's trading session, closing at $41.69, down $1.13 from the prior session's close of $42.82. The decline marked the second consecutive day of selling pressure after the stock hit a fresh 52-week high of $45.20 during Thursday's intraday trading, representing a sharp reversal from the euphoric rally that has propelled shares more than 109% higher year-to-date.
Profit-Taking After a Massive Rally
The most immediate driver behind the decline was straightforward profit-taking. CLMT has been one of the standout performers in the specialty chemicals and renewable fuels space this year, with shares rocketing from a 52-week low of $12.94 to as high as $45.20 — a gain of roughly 249%. Much of that enthusiasm was fueled by Calumet's early-July redemption of $100 million in 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028, a move that reinforced the company's commitment to deleveraging its heavily indebted balance sheet. Additionally, the MaxSAF 150 sustainable aviation fuel expansion project at its Montana Renewables subsidiary has captured investor imagination, promising to position Calumet as a key player in the fast-growing SAF market.
With those catalysts now largely priced in, traders used the mid-session Thursday reversal at the $45 level as a signal to lock in profits. Friday's session saw continued distribution, with volume of 1.42 million shares well above the average of roughly 983,000, indicating that institutional and retail sellers alike participated in the move.
Valuation Scrutiny and Fundamental Headwinds
Behind the selling sits a growing chorus of skepticism about Calumet's valuation. The stock's sharp ascent pushed its forward price-to-earnings multiple to approximately 61x, a demanding level for a company that reported a Q1 2026 net loss of $317 million — equivalent to earnings per share of negative $3.64, which badly missed analyst estimates of negative $0.57. The company's gross margins remain thin at roughly 7.4%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio hovers around 7x, leaving limited room for error. With a consensus analyst price target of approximately $36.75 — representing a potential downside of roughly 12% from Friday's close — the market appears to be reassessing whether the growth story can justify the premium.
Broader Energy and Market Context
Calumet's decline did not occur in isolation. Crude oil prices tumbled more than 4% on Friday, with Brent retreating from above $100 per barrel to around $96, as traders booked profits from the week's geopolitical rally and reports emerged that China had initiated efforts to resume stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran. The pullback in crude weighed broadly on energy-linked equities, even as the sector had posted strong weekly gains. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets struggled with their own crosscurrents: the S&P 500 finished essentially flat on Friday, but the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.64% as concerns over escalating AI capital expenditures continued to rattle technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a strong performance, but all three major indices closed the week in the red.
New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on goods from 60 trading partners, combined with lingering anxiety over Middle East supply disruptions, created a risk-off undercurrent that likely accelerated profit-taking in high-momentum names like CLMT.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Friday's selloff was notable for its elevated volume, which came in roughly 45% above the 20-day average. The stock opened at $42.63, briefly pushed to an intraday high of $43.00, but ultimately slid to a session low of $41.17 before settling at $41.69. After-hours trading saw further erosion to $41.21, suggesting that selling pressure had not fully abated by the closing bell. Technically, the breach below $42 — a level that had served as support during the late-July consolidation — raises the possibility of a test of the 50-day moving average, which sits near $34. More broadly, CLMT remains well above its 200-day moving average of approximately $26.24, underscoring that the current pullback, while sharp, has not yet threatened the longer-term uptrend.
What Comes Next for CLMT
All eyes now turn to Calumet's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for August 7, 2026. Investors will be scrutinizing whether the operational improvements flagged by management — including the restart of the Shreveport facility and the commencement of MaxSAF 150 operations — translated into improved cash flow and margin performance. The Q1 earnings call had framed the massive $317 million net loss as largely driven by non-cash mark-to-market items and RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) adjustments, but bulls will need to see concrete evidence of progress on the bottom line to rekindle upward momentum.
Key risks include continued volatility in crude oil prices and refining margins, potential shifts in renewable fuel policy that could impact SAF economics, and the persistent challenge of a $2.3 billion long-term debt load against deeply negative shareholder equity. On the other hand, if crack spreads remain elevated and the specialty products segment continues to execute on its pricing strategy, the deleveraging narrative could regain traction. For now, the stock appears to be in a consolidation phase as the market digests the magnitude of its year-to-date gains.
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CLMT in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
CLMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 35 of 39 cases where CLMT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CLMT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLMT advanced for three days, in 263 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLMT as a result. In 61 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLMT turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 83%.
CLMT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for CLMT entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-3.838) is normal, around the industry mean (2.431). P/E Ratio (-32.240) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-18.994). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.055) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.100) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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