GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Calumet (CLMT) Stock Up +1.35% Today?
Key Takeaways
- CLMT shares rose +1.35% to close at $56.44, up from a prior close of $55.69.
- The gain extended a powerful rally that has lifted the stock roughly 180% year to date, pushing it to fresh 52-week highs.
- Primary driver: ongoing investor enthusiasm following the U.S. EPA's small refinery exemption decision, which reduced Calumet's renewable identification number (RIN) liability.
- Secondary drivers include a flurry of analyst price-target increases and continued institutional accumulation of shares.
- Traders are watching upcoming third-quarter results and any further resolution on Calumet's 2022–2024 partial exemptions.
Opening Summary
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT), a specialty products and renewable fuels manufacturer headquartered in Indianapolis, extended its multi-month advance on Wednesday, closing up +1.35% at $56.44 after finishing the prior session at $55.69. The Indianapolis-based company, which produces base oils, solvents, waxes, lubricants, and renewable fuels through its Montana Renewables business, traded as high as roughly $56.99 during the session, touching a fresh 52-week high. Markets attributed the move to sustained momentum from a favorable regulatory ruling and broader strength in the specialty chemicals and refining complex.
EPA Exemption Decision Eases a Key Overhang
The most significant catalyst behind CLMT's recent strength remains the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's small refinery exemption decision, announced in early September. The EPA granted Calumet full exemptions on two refinery petitions for the 2025 compliance year, allowing the company to remove 71 million RINs from its balance sheet — a liability previously valued at approximately $170 million.
Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners must either blend minimum volumes of renewable fuels or purchase RIN credits. Being freed from that obligation for the covered period directly reduces a compliance cost that has weighed on Calumet's cash flow and profitability. While a substantial RIN liability of roughly 129 million units — tied to partial exemptions from 2022 to 2024 — remains under EPA discussion and judicial review, the market has responded positively to the cleaner balance-sheet outlook, and the stock has continued to build on those gains.
Analyst Targets and Institutional Accumulation
Supporting the rally, several sell-side analysts raised their price targets following the regulatory news. H.C. Wainwright lifted its objective to $75 and reiterated a Buy rating, while Bank of America Securities raised its target to $60. The upgrades came against a backdrop of continued institutional buying: recent 13F filings showed established managers including BlackRock, UBS Asset Management, and BlueCrest Capital increasing their stakes, while the California State Teachers' Retirement System added a substantial position during the second quarter.
That accumulation has reinforced the narrative that CLMT is benefiting from greater index and institutional visibility, partly following the company's conversion from a master limited partnership to a standard C-corporation and its inclusion in several Russell indexes.
Specialty and Renewable Market Tailwinds
Beyond regulatory relief, Calumet's core businesses are enjoying favorable market dynamics. A structural supply imbalance in global paraffinic base oils — driven in part by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and Europe — has tightened supplies and supported pricing for Calumet's specialty output. At the same time, the company's Montana Renewables unit, a first-mover in sustainable aviation fuel, continues to scale up following the completion of its MaxSAF 150 expansion, backed by a U.S. Department of Energy loan assure.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The advance on Wednesday occurred on relatively lighter-than-average volume, suggesting the move was driven more by persistent upward momentum than by a single surge of new buying. Shares remain well above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of the strength of the underlying trend, though momentum indicators pointed to overbought conditions following the extended run. The stock's year-to-date gain of roughly 180% stands in sharp contrast to the broader market, highlighting how company-specific catalysts — rather than broad index performance — have powered the rally.
What Comes Next for CLMT
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Calumet's third-quarter earnings report, expected in early November, for evidence that higher specialty margins and reduced compliance costs are translating into improved profitability and cash flow. The company continues to work through a net-loss position and elevated leverage, which remain the central risks to the investment thesis. Additional attention will center on the outcome of discussions and legal review surrounding the 2022–2024 partial exemptions, as a favorable resolution could further reduce balance-sheet liabilities, while an adverse outcome could reverse some of the recent optimism.
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CLMT's RSI Indicator is sitting in oversold zone for 4 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 14 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLMT advanced for three days, in 263 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLMT as a result. In 50 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLMT turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
CLMT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for CLMT entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-3.064) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-25.740) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.069) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.100) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CLMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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