GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is HubSpot (HUBS) Stock Down -4.65% Today?
Key Takeaways
- HUBS shares were down 4.65% to $195.43 in Friday's session, extending a multi-day slide following its third-quarter report.
- The primary catalyst is weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance, which overshadowed an otherwise strong Q3 earnings and revenue beat.
- A wave of analyst downgrades and price-target cuts from KeyBanc, Cantor Fitzgerald, BTIG, Morgan Stanley, and Piper Sandler is compounding selling pressure.
- Deteriorating demand signals — lower net revenue retention and slowing net new customer additions — are fueling concerns about a prolonged slowdown.
- A broader technology-led selloff is adding to downside pressure on the stock.
- Traders are watching for stabilization in customer metrics and any further analyst revisions in the days ahead.
- For more detail, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages to track upcoming catalysts.
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Opening Summary
HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS), a leading customer relationship management (CRM) and marketing software platform provider, extended its sharp selloff on Friday, with shares trading down 4.65% at $195.43 versus a prior close of $204.96. The decline follows the company's third-quarter earnings report and, more importantly, a fourth-quarter outlook that came in below Wall Street expectations — a signal that demand headwinds are intensifying rather than easing.
Weak Q4 Guidance Overshadows a Strong Q3 Beat
HubSpot's third-quarter results were solid on the surface. The company reported adjusted earnings of $3.81 per share, well above the $3.27 consensus, on revenue of $947.6 million, up 17% year over year and ahead of the roughly $925 million analysts expected. Adjusted operating margin also expanded to 22.6% from 19.9% a year earlier.
However, the market's attention quickly shifted to the company's outlook. For the fourth quarter, HubSpot guided revenue to $945 million–$947 million — roughly flat with Q3 and below the $964.9 million consensus — implying growth of only about 12%. Adjusted EPS guidance of $3.85–$3.87 also fell short of the $4.09 analysts had projected. The step-down in growth, rather than the quarterly beat, has defined the market reaction.
Analyst Downgrades Pile Up
The cautious guidance triggered a flurry of downgrades and price-target reductions that are continuing to weigh on the stock. KeyBanc cut HUBS to Sector Weight from Overweight, while Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the shares to Underweight and slashed its price target to $170 from $265. BTIG moved to Neutral from Buy, and Morgan Stanley trimmed its rating to Equalweight from Overweight with a target cut to $229 from $287. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $200 from $220, and several other firms trimmed their estimates. The collective analyst caution has reinforced investor concerns about the durability of HubSpot's growth trajectory.
Soft Demand Signals: Retention and Customer Adds
Beneath the headline numbers, key operating metrics deteriorated. Net revenue retention slipped to 101%, down from 103% a year ago, reflecting slower expansion spending by existing customers. Net new customer additions fell to roughly 5,300 in the quarter, below the 5,600 expected, and management indicated it expects fewer than 5,000 in the fourth quarter. Executives also cautioned that net new annual recurring revenue is likely to decline year over year in 2026 and that headwinds — including longer sales cycles, budget scrutiny, and price sensitivity — could persist into 2027.
Broader Tech Selloff Compounds the Pressure
HubSpot's slide is also occurring against a difficult backdrop for software and technology equities. A broader tech-led selloff has pressured the sector, with several peer names falling in sympathy. While HubSpot's decline has been steeper than many of its peers — reflecting its company-specific guidance and retention concerns — the weaker risk appetite across growth stocks has amplified the downside move.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Trading activity has been elevated relative to recent norms during the selloff, with volume surging well above the 90-day average as investors repositioned following the earnings report and subsequent analyst actions. The move has pushed HUBS to levels far below its 52-week high, breaking through prior support as the stock gave back well over half its value over the past twelve months. The decline has diverged meaningfully from the broader market, underscoring that company-specific factors — not just sector sentiment — are driving the selloff.
What Comes Next for HUBS
Investors will be watching closely for signs of stabilization in key demand metrics, including net revenue retention and net new customer additions, as well as any further analyst revisions. Management's commentary around its AI-driven product transformation and new "seats and credits" pricing model will remain a focal point, as early pilot results have yet to translate into revenue acceleration. Risks include the potential for prolonged softness in customer acquisition, increased competitive pressure, and broader volatility in growth stocks. Balancing those concerns are the company's improving profitability and strong free cash flow generation.
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HUBS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
HUBS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HUBS as a result. In 70 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HUBS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for HUBS's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for HUBS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for HUBS moved above the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +8.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUBS advanced for three days, in 230 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
HUBS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 153 of 218 cases where HUBS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HUBS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.169) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.526). P/E Ratio (72.424) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.160). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.247) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.618) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of Internet marketing software solutions
Industry PackagedSoftware
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