GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock Up +2.91% Today?
Key Takeaways
- MTSI rose roughly 2.91% to $195.88, rebounding from the prior session's close of $190.35.
- The gain marks a partial recovery after the stock plunged 18.35% on November 5 despite a strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
- Investors are reassessing MACOM's beat-and-raise results, including record backlog and bullish data-center guidance for fiscal 2027.
- Fresh analyst upgrades from Raymond James and BMO Capital Markets are supporting the turnaround in sentiment.
- The move comes amid choppy trading in AI-related chip stocks following results from Arm and Qualcomm earlier in the week.
- Traders are watching data-center demand, fiscal first-quarter results, and whether the stock can reclaim key technical levels.
- For deeper insight, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for MTSI.
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Opening Summary
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), a Lowell, Massachusetts-based supplier of analog, mixed-signal, radio-frequency, and optical semiconductor products for data center, telecom, and industrial-and-defense markets, traded higher on Thursday, November 6. Shares rose about 2.91%, or $5.53, to $195.88, compared with a prior close of $190.35. The rebound follows an unusually sharp sell-off the day before, when the stock dropped more than 18% despite a strong fiscal fourth-quarter report. Markets attributed the recovery to bargain hunting, a series of bullish analyst calls, and a fresh look at the company's accelerating data-center growth story.
A Rebound After a Post-Earnings Sell-Off
The most immediate driver of Thursday's move was a technical and sentiment-driven recovery. On November 5, MTSI delivered fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street's earnings expectations and included guidance above consensus, yet the stock tumbled roughly 18.35% as part of a broader rout in AI-infrastructure chip names. That decline—triggered in part by cautious reactions to results from ARM and QCOM—was widely viewed as a valuation reset and bout of profit-taking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Thursday's gain suggests investors stepped in to buy the dip as the initial shock faded.
Strong Results and Bullish Guidance
Underpinning the rebound are the underlying results themselves. MACOM reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $424.8 million, up 62.7% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share, topping the consensus estimate. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue grew 37% to more than $1.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share climbed 61% to $5.60. Data-center revenue reached a record $188.1 million, up 37% sequentially, and the company ended the year with record backlog and a fourth-quarter book-to-bill ratio of 1.4-to-1. Management guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to a range of $450 million to $460 million, above estimates, and signaled it expects roughly 80% data-center revenue growth in fiscal 2027, accelerating from fiscal 2026's 74% pace.
Analyst Upgrades and Sector Context
Positive analyst commentary added fuel to the recovery. Raymond James reportedly upgraded MTSI to Outperform, and BMO Capital Markets raised its rating to Outperform, both citing attractive valuation following the steep pullback. The upgrades helped offset a separate round of price-target reductions from other firms reflecting compressed semiconductor multiples. The stock's move also unfolded against a volatile backdrop for the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, where AI-optics and networking suppliers have swung sharply as investors weigh long-term AI spending against near-term valuation and order-cadence concerns.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Thursday's advance came on the heels of an exceptionally high-volume session the prior day, when more than 2.5 million shares changed hands—well above the stock's typical daily turnover—as the post-earnings sell-off peaked. The modest up-move suggests a stabilization rather than a full reversal, with shares still trading far below the 52-week highs reached earlier in the year. Technical traders noted the stock had reclaimed a portion of its losses but remained below key short-term moving averages, leaving the recovery in an early and fragile stage relative to the broader semiconductor sector.
What Comes Next for MTSI
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether MACOM can sustain its data-center momentum into fiscal 2027, particularly as the industry transitions toward 1.6-terabit optics and near-packaged optics architectures. The company's fiscal first-quarter results, expected early next year, will test management's guidance for accelerating growth and expanding operating margins above 40%. Risks include telecom softness in passive-optical and broadband markets, rising capital expenditures of $100 million to $110 million, and a higher fiscal 2027 tax rate. Broader AI-infrastructure sentiment and peer earnings will also continue to influence the stock's path.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MTSI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for MTSI entered a downward trend on November 05, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 134 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 103 of the 134 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTSI as a result. In 66 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTSI turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
MTSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 50-day moving average for MTSI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MTSI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +7.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTSI advanced for three days, in 263 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
MTSI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.435) is normal, around the industry mean (5.123). P/E Ratio (59.299) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.329). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.611) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries provides high-performance analog semiconductor solutions
Industry Semiconductors
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