GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Down -11.08% Today?
Key Takeaways
- QCOM shares were down roughly 11% in Thursday trading, falling to about $154 after closing the prior session at $173.19.
- The primary catalyst was a disappointing forward profit forecast delivered alongside Qualcomm's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
- Handset chip revenue, the company's largest business, slumped 26% year over year to about $5.14 billion, missing Wall Street estimates.
- Rising memory and component costs, coupled with Apple's gradual shift to in-house modems, weighed on the smartphone outlook.
- Broader semiconductor sentiment was weak, with peers such as ARM and memory-chip names trading lower.
- Investors are watching whether growth in automotive, IoT, and data-center segments can offset continued handset weakness.
- For additional details, explore Qualcomm's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
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Opening Summary
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM), the world's largest supplier of smartphone chips and a fast-growing player in automotive and AI data-center semiconductors, saw its shares drop 11.08% on Thursday. The stock traded near $154.00, down $19.19 from the prior session's close of $173.19. The decline was driven by a post-earnings reaction after the company issued a profit outlook that fell short of analyst expectations, overshadowing a top- and bottom-line beat for the fiscal fourth quarter.
Earnings Results and Disappointing Guidance
The sell-off traces directly to Qualcomm's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, reported after the market close on Wednesday. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.17, narrowly ahead of the $2.16 consensus, while adjusted revenue of about $10.4 billion beat estimates despite falling roughly 7% to 8% year over year. However, the market's attention quickly shifted to guidance. For the December quarter, management projected adjusted earnings of $2.15 to $2.35 per share, a midpoint below the roughly $2.27 to $2.32 Wall Street was expecting. The weaker-than-anticipated profit outlook sparked a broad repricing of the stock.
Smartphone Chip Weakness and Rising Costs
The core of the concern lies in Qualcomm's handset business, which still generates the majority of its chip revenue. Fourth-quarter handset chip revenue fell 26% year over year to about $5.14 billion, missing consensus estimates near $5.21 billion. Surging memory-chip prices, driven by AI data-center demand, have pushed up component costs and forced smartphone makers to raise prices, dampening device demand. Qualcomm raised its own chip prices in September but was unable to fully offset the volume decline. CEO Cristiano Amon said the smartphone market is likely to remain flat through 2027, further limiting near-term visibility.
Apple Transition and Competitive Pressures
Investors are also weighing the structural loss of business from Apple (AAPL), which has been transitioning toward its own internally designed cellular modems. Qualcomm's latest guidance no longer assumes incremental revenue from Apple, removing a long-standing revenue stream and adding uncertainty to the handset segment's outlook. While management argues that non-handset growth can eventually offset the Apple loss, the transition is contributing to near-term margin pressure.
Growth Segments Provide Partial Offset
Not all of the report was negative. Automotive chip revenue surged 89% year over year to about $1.99 billion, and IoT revenue rose 4% to roughly $1.88 billion. Qualcomm also reiterated a target of $5 billion in data-center revenue for fiscal 2027, with data-center revenue reaching $650 million in the quarter. The company separately announced a multi-year partnership with SpaceX to supply technology for a planned nationwide cellular network. These diversification efforts, however, were not enough to reassure investors focused on the near-term handset downturn and margin compression.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The move in QCOM was amplified by sector-wide weakness. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell more than 3%, and other chip names, including ARM, MU, and SNDK, traded lower amid concerns over rising memory costs and the durability of AI-related spending. Qualcomm's decline diverged from a broader market that had rallied the prior session following the U.S. midterm elections, underscoring that the sell-off was fundamentally company- and sector-specific rather than a broad-market move. The stock also broke below key near-term moving averages, with traders watching support in the $148–$150 zone.
What Comes Next for QCOM
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Qualcomm's ability to execute its diversification strategy. Management projects non-handset revenue to grow more than 60% year over year in fiscal 2027, with data-center and automotive segments expected to be the main growth engines. Key risks include persistent memory-price inflation, further deterioration in smartphone demand, the pace of Apple's modem transition, and whether the lower-margin data-center ramp can translate into meaningful earnings growth. Analysts remain divided, with some citing stronger confidence in diversification and others warning that handset weakness and margin pressure could produce mixed near-term results.
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QCOM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026
QCOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 37 cases where QCOM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in 215 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCOM as a result. In 64 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QCOM turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
QCOM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCOM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for QCOM entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.688) is normal, around the industry mean (5.869). P/E Ratio (19.614) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.161). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.513) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
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General Information
a provider of wireless communication systems
Industry Semiconductors
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