Why Is Tapestry (TPR) Stock Down -15.29% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Direction and magnitude: TPR fell 15.29% in morning trading Thursday, last changing hands at $130.24, down $23.50 from Wednesday's close of $153.74.
- Primary catalyst: A fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat was overshadowed by fiscal 2027 revenue guidance whose midpoint of $8.45 billion landed below analyst expectations.
- Secondary drivers: Continued sales declines at Kate Spade, tariff assumptions embedded in the outlook, and an elevated valuation after a strong run left little room for an in-line forecast.
- Positive details the market largely ignored: Coach revenue rose 15%, full-year revenue increased 14%, and the board approved a 16% dividend increase.
- Broader context: The sell-off was stock-specific and followed a 4.2% decline in the prior session.
- What traders are watching next: Analyst estimate revisions, Coach momentum versus Kate Spade stabilization, tariff and consumer-demand signals, and technical support levels.
Opening Summary
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR), the New York-based house of accessories and lifestyle brands behind Coach and Kate Spade New York, saw its shares plunge Thursday after a quarterly report that beat profit expectations but failed to satisfy investors looking for stronger forward guidance. The stock tumbled 15.29% to $130.24 as of 9:46 a.m. ET, compared with a prior-session close of $153.74. The decline followed the company's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter release, which showed solid execution at Coach but renewed concerns about slowing growth, persistent Kate Spade weakness, and a valuation that had already priced in outperformance.
Earnings Results and Guidance
The company delivered fourth-quarter net sales of $1.88 billion, up 9% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.32, up 28% from the prior year and ahead of consensus forecasts. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached $8.0 billion, an increase of 14%, while adjusted EPS rose 38% to $7.05. Coach remained the clear growth engine, with fourth-quarter revenue up 15% and full-year revenue up 24%.
The problem was the outlook. Tapestry initiated fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $8.4 billion to $8.5 billion, implying mid-single-digit growth and a midpoint of $8.45 billion, slightly below the roughly $8.47 billion analysts had modeled. EPS guidance of $7.80 to $7.90 was largely in line with expectations, and first-quarter EPS guidance of about $1.55 came in above consensus, but the revenue forecast signaled a meaningful deceleration from the double-digit growth of fiscal 2026. The earnings-driven move showed that investors were focused on the growth trajectory rather than the quarterly beat.
Kate Spade Remains the Weak Link
While Coach continued to gain share and expand its handbag average unit retail, Kate Spade remained a drag. Fourth-quarter Kate Spade revenue fell 7% year over year, and full-year brand revenue declined 10%, as the company pulled back on promotions and worked through a strategic reset. The contrast reinforced concerns about Tapestry's reliance on Coach for the majority of growth and profitability.
Tariff considerations also featured in the guidance. The company's fiscal 2027 plan embeds a mid-20% tariff rate on U.S. inventory receipts and assumes a neutral net tariff impact year over year. In the fourth quarter, tariff and duty effects partially offset operational margin gains, and the outlook's modest operating-margin expansion of about 50 basis points left investors questioning how much cost leverage is available if consumer demand softens.
Elevated Expectations and Valuation
The sharp market reaction reflected how much optimism was already embedded in the stock. TPR had rallied powerfully over the past year, reaching a 52-week high above $160 earlier in 2026, before entering Thursday's session with a modest pullback that included a 4.2% decline the prior day. With the shares trading at a rich valuation relative to their historical norm, an in-line-to-lighter revenue forecast and continued Kate Spade softness triggered profit-taking and a sell-the-news response.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The move was primarily company-specific, driven by the earnings release and guidance rather than a broad consumer-discretionary event. Trading was active as investors absorbed the report, and the stock traded just above its morning low of $130.17. The decline pushed shares decisively below the $140 and $150 levels and well off the 52-week high, underscoring the speed with which sentiment shifted following the outlook. The company also announced shareholder-friendly actions, including a 16% dividend increase to an annual rate of $1.85 per share and plans to repurchase approximately $1.35 billion in stock during fiscal 2027, but those steps were not enough to offset the growth concerns.
What Comes Next for TPR
Investors will now watch how analysts adjust full-year estimates and whether the stock can stabilize after the post-earnings reset. The company's fiscal 2027 first-quarter results are scheduled for November 5, 2026, and that update will offer an early read on Coach's momentum, Kate Spade's progress, and the impact of tariffs on margins. Key risks include a slowdown in consumer discretionary spending, potential trade-policy escalation, foreign-exchange swings, and execution at Kate Spade. The path of the stock will likely depend on whether management can sustain Coach's strength while improving the rest of the portfolio against a more uncertain macro backdrop.
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TPR sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for TPR moved below the 200-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for TPR entered a downward trend on October 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TPR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TPR as a result. In 65 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TPR just turned positive on September 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where TPR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 38 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +4.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPR advanced for three days, in 236 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
TPR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TPR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TPR's P/B Ratio (32.680) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.448). P/E Ratio (15.605) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.915). TPR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.624) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.396). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. TPR's P/S Ratio (3.097) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.399).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a designer of luxury accessories and lifestyle brands
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