GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is York Space Systems (YSS) Stock Down -18.33% Today?
Key Takeaways
- York Space Systems (YSS) shares fell 18.33% to $5.39 in early trading, extending an 8.84% decline in the prior session for a two-day drop of roughly 26%.
- The primary catalyst was a disappointing third-quarter report: revenue of $84.2 million missed expectations and a $749.7 million non-cash goodwill impairment pushed GAAP losses to $5.99 per share.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $27.6 million from $9.5 million in the second quarter, and management guided the fourth quarter slightly weaker again.
- Secondary pressure came from a round of price-target cuts at Needham, Citigroup and Piper Sandler, all published after the results.
- The move was entirely company-specific — major U.S. indices were modestly higher, underscoring how isolated the selling was to this name.
- News Significance Score: 62/100 — a major earnings and impairment disclosure amplified an 18% move roughly four times the stock's normal daily swing.
- Traders are now watching the $5.26 52-week low, quarterly cash burn, and the timing of large Space Data Network awards that management has pushed into 2027.
- For deeper detail on York Space Systems, readers can review Price Targets, Earnings and Forecast pages before making any decisions.
- Investors seeking systematic strategies can also explore Tickeron's curated Trending AI Robots list.
Opening Summary
York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) is a Greenwood Village, Colorado-based space and defense prime that designs, builds and operates small satellites and spacecraft platforms — including its S-CLASS, LX-CLASS and M-CLASS lines — for national security, government and commercial customers, with a heavy concentration in U.S. Department of Defense programs. The stock traded at $5.39, down 18.33% from the previous close of $6.60, in the first hour of the November 13 session. The direction was unambiguously lower, and the catalyst was verified: a soft fiscal third-quarter print released after the close on November 12, compounded by a $749.7 million goodwill write-down and a series of analyst price-target reductions.
Third-Quarter Miss and a $750 Million Write-Down
The quarterly report did the damage. Revenue of $84.17 million was down 7% year over year from $90.76 million and landed below the roughly $90 million consensus. The headline loss was far larger: a net loss of $807.4 million, or $5.99 per share, versus a $20.1 million loss a year earlier, after the company recorded a $749.7 million non-cash goodwill impairment. Management attributed the charge to reduced revenue expectations and a share price trading below book value — effectively marking down the carrying value of past acquisitions.
Even excluding that non-cash item, the underlying business deteriorated. Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $27.6 million from $9.5 million in the second quarter and $3.6 million a year ago, with management guiding fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA slightly worse. GAAP gross margin fell to 18% from 22%, and the full-year gross margin outlook was trimmed to the low-20% range from the mid-20s. Contribution margin improved to 40%, but with quarterly operating expenses near $60 million, the path to breakeven now requires revenue growth analysts estimate at well above current levels.
Awards Pushed Right as the Pipeline Grows
The tension in the report was that leading indicators improved while reported results shrank. Identified pipeline rose to $14.9 billion from $11.5 billion, potential value on awarded contracts climbed to $2.84 billion, and York logged a ninth 2026 contract win. But backlog slipped to $581 million from $642 million at the start of the year, and management conceded that large awards — including Space Data Network constellation decisions — have slipped to roughly mid-2027.
Balance-sheet optics also tightened. Cash fell to $309 million from $534 million in the prior quarter after a $155 million acquisition payment, with nine-month operating cash burn near $248 million and total liquidity of $459 million including an undrawn revolver. A newly announced plan to acquire unmanned-systems developer Outlook Industries — creating a York Terrestrial Systems unit — was disclosed without financial terms, adding execution risk to a story already under scrutiny.
Price-Target Cuts Reinforce the Bear Case
Sell-side reaction was swift and uniformly negative on valuation. Needham kept a Buy rating but cut its target to $10 from $18; Citigroup lowered its target to $10 from $13; and Piper Sandler stayed Neutral while reducing its target to $7 from $8, citing a revenue transition between the roll-off of one tranche of transport-layer work and the ramp of the next. The clustering of cuts published before the opening bell gave sellers an additional reason to press the stock.
Market Context and Trading Activity
This was not a market-driven decline. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were all modestly higher, and the wider space and defense group has been under its own pressure since late summer as budget expectations shifted from exuberance toward austerity — yet peer moves were nowhere near this magnitude. Volume was heavy relative to the roughly 1.5 million to 2 million shares the stock has averaged in recent weeks, consistent with institutional repositioning after a fundamental reset.
Technically, the decline puts YSS within striking distance of its 52-week low of $5.26, set in October. The shares are now down roughly 87% from their 52-week high of $44.54 following the company's January 2026 listing, and remain well below any meaningful moving-average support.
News Significance Score
The score runs from 0 to 100, where 0 means no meaningful news and an ordinary price move, and 100 means transformative news paired with an extreme, rare move. This event earns 62 out of 100. The verified news was material for a company of this size: a revenue miss, a $750 million goodwill impairment, widening adjusted losses, a softer margin outlook and multiple price-target cuts, all of which reprice the equity rather than merely trim sentiment.
The price response was similarly unusual. Today's 18.33% decline is about 4.3 times the stock's average absolute daily move of 4.2% over the prior 60 sessions, and no session in that window produced a larger move — the biggest was 14.2%. Strong news and an outsized, rare reaction combine into the 62 score.
What Comes Next for YSS
Attention now shifts to fourth-quarter results and the tone of management's 2027 commentary, with investors focused on whether the adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds the guided level and whether cash burn slows after a heavy nine months. Contract award timing is the swing factor: decisions on large Space Data Network opportunities are expected in the first half of 2027, and any acceleration would materially change the revenue trajectory. Analysts will also want terms and integration plans for the Outlook Industries transaction, plus evidence that revenue stops contracting after the tranche transition. Risks remain substantial — funded backlog is shrinking, liquidity depends on an undrawn revolver, and a securities class action tied to earlier disclosures is still pending. Conversely, a 2027 budget that favors vendor diversity and faster, cheaper satellite production is the clearest potential positive.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
YSS in +29.04% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where YSS advanced for three days, in 20 of 28 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where YSS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 6 of 11 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for YSS just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where YSS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 3 of 6 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 5 of 5 cases where YSS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on YSS as a result. In 11 of 11 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YSS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
YSS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for YSS entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.397) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-3.064) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.627) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YSS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. YSS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
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