Advertisement
ADP vs ADSK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is a defensive, dividend-paying human capital management (HCM) leader with lower volatility, while ADSK is a higher-beta, growth-oriented design software company with no dividend.
- ADP has delivered consistent single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, whereas Autodesk is growing revenue in the mid-teens but trading well below its 52-week highs.
- ADP offers a roughly 2.5% dividend yield and a beta near 0.83, contrasting with Autodesk's beta near 1.31 and zero payout.
- Both companies are investing heavily in AI, but ADP is monetizing it through operational efficiency while Autodesk is embedding AI across design-to-operations workflows.
- Analyst consensus leans "Hold" on ADP and "Buy" on Autodesk, reflecting different risk-reward profiles and market positioning.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Autodesk (ADSK) operate in different corners of the technology economy, yet both are widely followed by traders and long-term investors seeking exposure to software-enabled business models. ADP dominates payroll and human capital management, while Autodesk leads in 3D design, engineering, and construction software. A stock comparison between the two highlights the trade-off between stability and growth. This analysis is especially relevant for investors weighing a defensive, income-generating compounder against a faster-growing but more volatile software franchise, and for those evaluating how each company's relative performance and market positioning hold up in the current environment.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing is a global provider of cloud-based payroll, human resources, and benefits administration, operating primarily through its Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segments. For fiscal 2026, the company reported total revenue of approximately $21.9 billion, up 7% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 11% for the full year. Client retention in Employer Services held near 92%, and new-business bookings grew 6% to roughly $2.2 billion.
In recent weeks, ADP's share price has reflected a relatively steady, lower-volatility profile. The stock carries a beta near 0.83, indicating it tends to move less than the broader market, and it pays a quarterly dividend that translates to a yield of roughly 2.5%. Investor sentiment has been shaped by AI-driven efficiency initiatives such as ADP Assist and "The Zone," as well as the expanding adoption of its Lyric HCM platform. Management's fiscal 2027 outlook calls for 5–6% revenue growth and 9–11% adjusted EPS growth, signaling moderate but dependable expansion rather than a rapid acceleration.
ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
Autodesk develops 3D design, engineering, construction, and manufacturing software, with well-known products spanning architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) workflows as well as its Fusion manufacturing platform. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose approximately 16% year over year to about $2.05 billion, and non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) operating margin reached roughly 41%. The company also raised full-year revenue and billings guidance, partly reflecting its acquisition of MaintainX.
Despite solid headline growth, Autodesk's shares have exhibited greater volatility and have declined notably from their 52-week highs, with a beta near 1.31. Recent market activity has been influenced by investor concerns about AI-related disruption, a sales reorganization that is still normalizing, and quarterly profit guidance that fell short of some Wall Street expectations. Unlike ADP, Autodesk does not pay a dividend, positioning it as a capital-appreciation-oriented holding. The company's long-term strategy centers on connecting design, construction, and operations data through "project intelligence," with a target of roughly 41% non-GAAP operating margin by fiscal 2029.
Trending AI Robots
For traders looking to apply a systematic approach to names like ADP and ADSK, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its AI-powered trading bots. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only a subset earns a place in the Trending AI Robots section — those judged most suitable for current market conditions. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and the specific set of tickers they trade, giving users the ability to compare approaches side by side. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help traders identify which automated strategies are currently favored by the platform's algorithms.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is stability versus growth. ADP is a mature, recurring-revenue business tied to employment and payroll volumes, which makes it comparatively resilient but also limits its upside in a strong labor market. Its valuation reflects this: a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the mid-20s and a modest forward multiple, supported by a reliable dividend and consistent buybacks. Autodesk, by contrast, is growing revenue in the mid-teens and expanding margins, but its earnings multiple is higher on a trailing basis and its share price has been more sensitive to execution risk and AI-related concerns.
Sector exposure also differs meaningfully. ADP's fortunes track employment trends, interest income on client funds, and demand for HR outsourcing, while Autodesk's depend on construction and manufacturing capital spending, subscription renewals, and the pace of cloud adoption. On risk factors, ADP faces cyclical exposure to hiring and interest rates; Autodesk faces competitive pressure in design software and transitional friction from its new transaction model. Market sentiment currently appears more constructive on ADP's steady compounding, whereas Autodesk carries both a more enthusiastic analyst consensus and greater short-term volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ADP in the current environment for its trend consistency, lower volatility, and steadier relative positioning. ADP's combination of a defensive business model, stable retention, margin expansion, and a dividend tends to produce smoother, more predictable price action that aligns well with trend-following and stability-weighted signals. Autodesk's faster growth and stronger analyst consensus are notable positives, but its higher beta, deeper drawdown from recent highs, and ongoing transitional headwinds introduce greater uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, the AI's edge would more likely be found on the more stable and consistent trend of ADP, while Autodesk would be monitored for a confirmed stabilization or reversal before signaling a more favorable risk-reward profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Hold and ADSK is a Hold.
ADP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 42 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 161 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.212) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (23.931) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for ADSK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ADSK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 212 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.804) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (26.838) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | ADSK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 11 Undervalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (11) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (74) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (52) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as ADSK (19) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as ADSK (55) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (96) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | ADSK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while ADSK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ADSK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ADSK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.51% price change this week, while ADSK (@Packaged Software) price change was +4.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Dec 01, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-1.95% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
Advertisement