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AIR vs BWXT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAR Corp (AIR) vs. BWX Technologies (BWXT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AIR has delivered outsized share-price gains over the past year, while BWXT has declined sharply over the past six months despite strong fundamentals.
- Both companies reported double-digit revenue growth in their most recent quarters, but their businesses serve very different end markets: aerospace aftermarket services versus nuclear components and fuel.
- AIR is scaling through acquisitions, while BWXT is sharpening its focus on nuclear national security and commercial power.
- Relative performance favors AIR on momentum, while BWXT offers stronger visibility through a multi-billion-dollar backlog.
- Sentiment and valuation profiles diverge, creating distinct risk-reward trade-offs for different investor styles.
Introduction
Investors weighing the industrial and defense landscape often encounter AIR and BWXT in the same conversation, yet the two companies operate in markedly different corners of the market. AAR Corp is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket services provider, while BWX Technologies is a nuclear components, fuel, and reactors specialist. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating where the strongest momentum, stability, and growth catalysts currently reside. By examining recent performance, business models, and market positioning, readers can better understand how these two names compare in the current environment.
AIR Overview and Recent Performance
AAR Corp (AIR) provides aviation services and parts to commercial and government customers through segments spanning parts supply, repair and engineering, integrated solutions, and expeditionary services. The company has benefited from an aging global aircraft fleet, constrained new-aircraft production at major manufacturers, and rising defense spending.
In recent weeks and months, AIR has shown notable momentum, with shares gaining substantially over the trailing year. Its most recent quarterly results reflected strong top-line expansion, supported by double-digit organic growth in new-parts distribution and contributions from acquisitions such as HAECO Americas, ADI, and a controlling stake in MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) Holdings. Management has emphasized a strategic shift toward higher-margin component repair, distribution, and software offerings while winding down lower-margin legacy programs. Analysts have responded with upward price-target revisions, and sentiment has generally improved, though investors continue to monitor acquisition integration and commercial aviation demand as key variables.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies (BWXT) designs and manufactures nuclear components, reactors, and fuel, serving both the U.S. government and commercial nuclear power markets. Its Government Operations segment is anchored by naval nuclear propulsion and special materials work, while its Commercial Operations segment spans nuclear components, field services, fuel handling, and medical isotopes.
Fundamentally, BWXT has performed well in recent quarters. The company reported solid revenue growth and raised its full-year financial outlook, citing robust demand across national security and commercial nuclear markets. Its total backlog reached multi-billion-dollar levels, up significantly year over year, and its book-to-bill ratio (a measure comparing new orders to revenue billed) remained healthy. Strategically, BWXT has sharpened its portfolio, announcing the sale of a majority stake in its medical business while acquiring Precision Components Group to expand U.S. commercial nuclear manufacturing. Despite these catalysts, BWXT shares have declined substantially over the past six months, reflecting a disconnect between improving fundamentals and investor sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is sector exposure. AIR is tied to the commercial aviation cycle and defense readiness, where demand is driven by fleet age, flight hours, and geopolitical tensions. BWXT is tied to multi-decade nuclear programs, including naval propulsion and the emerging commercial nuclear revival driven by small modular reactors (SMRs) and reactor life extensions.
Growth drivers also differ. AIR's expansion is largely acquisition-led, creating near-term revenue uplift but also integration risk. BWXT's growth is more organic and contract-backed, supported by a large backlog that provides revenue visibility but can also produce quarterly variability in reported results.
On relative performance, AIR has shown far stronger recent momentum, while BWXT has lagged despite favorable fundamentals. BWXT offers a steadier, longer-cycle business with a dividend, whereas AIR presents a more cyclical, turnaround-oriented profile. Risk factors diverge accordingly: AIR faces commercial aviation demand and integration execution risk, while BWXT faces capital-spending pressure on margins and concentration of earnings in specific quarters.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AIR in the current environment. The stock's sustained upward trajectory, accelerating revenue growth, and positive analyst revisions suggest stronger near-term trend alignment. That said, BWXT presents a more stable, backlog-supported fundamental profile with meaningful long-term catalysts, which could appeal to strategies oriented toward mean reversion or value. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: momentum currently favors AIR, while fundamental stability and backlog depth favor BWXT.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AIR is a StrongBuy and BWXT is a StrongBuy.
AIR's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AIR moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 53 cases where AIR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AIR just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where AIR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +1.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIR advanced for three days, in 253 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
AIR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for AIR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.358) is normal, around the industry mean (4.871). P/E Ratio (20.451) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.733). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.003) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.361) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AIR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BWXT's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for BWXT moved out of oversold territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BWXT just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where BWXT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BWXT advanced for three days, in 229 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BWXT as a result. In 46 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BWXT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for BWXT entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BWXT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.217) is normal, around the industry mean (4.871). P/E Ratio (34.687) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.733). BWXT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (27.780) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.811) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
AIR | BWXT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 54 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 78 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AIR's Valuation (49) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BWXT (96). This means that AIR’s stock grew somewhat faster than BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
AIR's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (54). This means that AIR’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (62). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
AIR's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (78). This means that AIR’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (96). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
| AIR | BWXT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | 12 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 59% | 1 day ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while BWXT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AIR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- BWXT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BWXT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- BWXT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AIR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +0.45% price change this week, while BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -3.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.78%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIR is expected to report earnings on Jan 06, 2027.
BWXT is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.13% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -1.17% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 75% Closely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.23% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| DRS - BWXT | 53% Loosely correlated | -3.52% | ||
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