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BWXT vs KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT reported Q1 2026 revenues of $860 million, up 26% year-over-year, beating estimates, with raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $650-$665 million.
- KTOS shares have faced recent pressure, down over 9% in the past month amid broader sector rotations, ahead of its Q1 earnings on May 6, 2026.
- BWXT boasts a massive $8.7 billion backlog, up 77% year-over-year, driven by naval nuclear contracts, providing revenue visibility.
- Both stocks show strong long-term gains—BWXT up 85% over one year, KTOS up 65%—but BWXT's YTD return of 19% edges KTOS's 22% amid volatility.
- BWXT trades at a forward P/E of around 40x with higher profitability (ROE 31%), while KTOS's elevated valuation reflects growth in unmanned systems.
- Nuclear and defense tailwinds support both, but BWXT's stability contrasts KTOS's higher beta and execution risks in hypersonics.
Introduction
BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) operate in the aerospace and defense sector, capitalizing on rising U.S. military spending and geopolitical tensions. BWXT focuses on nuclear components for naval propulsion and commercial energy, while KTOS specializes in unmanned systems, hypersonics, and satellite technologies. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking exposure to defense contractors with long-term government contracts, as both benefit from multi-year backlogs and innovation in high-demand areas like nuclear power and drones. Traders monitoring relative performance may find insights into momentum shifts amid earnings seasons and sector rotations.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a leading supplier of nuclear components, reactors, and fuel, primarily for the U.S. Navy's propulsion systems and commercial nuclear applications. The company operates in government and commercial segments, manufacturing precision parts for submarines, aircraft carriers, and clean energy projects. In recent market activity, BWXT shares have demonstrated resilience, with a one-year return of 85% and YTD gains of 19%, outperforming the S&P 500. Q1 2026 results showed revenues of $860 million, up 26% year-over-year and beating estimates by 2.7%, with adjusted EPS of $1.12 surpassing forecasts by 21%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $148 million. Sentiment has been buoyed by a record $8.7 billion backlog, up 77% year-over-year, fueled by naval contracts and commercial nuclear demand. Raised 2026 guidance reflects confidence in sustained growth, though shares dipped post-earnings amid profit-taking.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) develops unmanned aerial systems, hypersonic vehicles, propulsion, and microwave electronics for national security. Its segments include government solutions and unmanned systems, serving the U.S. Department of Defense with drones like the XQ-58 Valkyrie and counter-UAS technologies. Recent weeks have seen KTOS shares decline over 9%, reflecting sector volatility ahead of Q1 2026 earnings on May 6. Despite this, one-year returns stand at 65% with YTD gains of 22%. Q4 2025 revenues hit $345 million, up 22% year-over-year and beating estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.18 topping consensus. Backlog reached $1.57 billion, supported by hypersonic test facilities and contracts like $30 million in national security hardware. Performance has been influenced by defense spending upticks but pressured by recent market rotations and high valuations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BWXT and KTOS both thrive in defense but differ in focus: BWXT's nuclear-centric model ensures stable government revenues from naval reactors, while KTOS emphasizes agile unmanned and hypersonic tech for rapid deployment. Growth drivers include BWXT's commercial nuclear expansion amid energy transitions versus KTOS's contracts in drones and satellite systems. Recent momentum favors BWXT's post-earnings stability over KTOS's monthly dips, with BWXT's beta around 0.8 signaling lower volatility than KTOS's 1.1. Risk factors: BWXT faces supply chain pressures in uranium processing; KTOS contends with execution in emerging hypersonics. Sector exposure overlaps in aerospace-defense, but BWXT adds nuclear energy diversification. Market sentiment tilts toward BWXT's profitability (10% margins, 31% ROE) and massive backlog versus KTOS's growth premium at higher multiples, trading off reliability for innovation potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors BWXT over KTOS, based on superior trend consistency, higher profitability margins, lower volatility, and catalysts like the $8.7 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance. While KTOS offers upside from hypersonics and unmanned growth, its elevated valuation and recent momentum wane introduce higher uncertainty. BWXT's relative positioning suggests a higher probability of outperformance in the near term amid defense and nuclear tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BWXT is a Hold and KTOS is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWXT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKTOS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BWXT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWXT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWXT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +0.33% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -3.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +2.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWXT is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+2.07% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| BWXT | KTOS | BWXT / KTOS | |
| Capitalization | 18.9B | 10.8B | 175% |
| EBITDA | 569M | 110M | 517% |
| Gain YTD | 19.831 | -24.476 | -81% |
| P/E Ratio | 55.15 | 337.24 | 16% |
| Revenue | 3.38B | 1.42B | 239% |
| Total Cash | 512M | 1.46B | 35% |
| Total Debt | 2.02B | 185M | 1,091% |
BWXT | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 75 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KTOS's Valuation (90) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (95). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (75). This means that BWXT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (89). This means that BWXT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (64). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (25). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| BWXT | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 69% | 28 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 8 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 72% |
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| KBWP | 118.25 | 0.49 | +0.42% |
| Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Ins ETF | |||
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| Madison Covered Call ETF | |||
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | +0.60% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 62% Loosely correlated | +6.22% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.45% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.30% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.98% | ||
More | ||||