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BWXT vs KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT pairs a stable U.S. Navy nuclear-propulsion franchise with an accelerating commercial nuclear segment, supporting rising guidance and a growing backlog.
- KTOS is a higher-growth, higher-volatility defense-technology play levered to unmanned systems, hypersonics, and jet engines, but it carries negative near-term momentum and cash-flow pressure.
- BWXT raised full-year 2026 revenue and earnings targets after strong quarterly results, while KTOS delivered record bookings yet saw its shares slide sharply.
- Relative performance diverged: BWXT has outperformed its aerospace-defense peer group recently, while KTOS has lagged despite its backlog growth.
- BWXT offers a dividend and steadier profitability; KTOS offers greater theoretical upside but richer valuation and supply-chain headwinds.
Introduction
Investors comparing BWXT and KTOS are weighing two very different ways to gain exposure to defense and advanced technology. BWX Technologies is a nuclear manufacturing and services specialist with deep ties to U.S. naval propulsion, while Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a diversified supplier of unmanned systems, hypersonics, rocket motors, and satellite ground systems. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance signals and for longer-term investors evaluating market positioning across the aerospace-and-defense sector. Although both companies serve national-security customers, their growth drivers, risk profiles, and recent market behavior differ materially, making a head-to-head assessment useful for anyone building or rebalancing a portfolio.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies is a leading supplier of nuclear reactors and fuel for the U.S. Navy and a growing provider of commercial nuclear components and services. In recent weeks, the company's market positioning has been reinforced by a sharpened strategic focus on nuclear markets, including the sale of most of its medical isotope business and the acquisition of Precision Components Group, which establishes a U.S. commercial nuclear manufacturing footprint.
Fundamentals have strengthened through recent quarters. BWXT raised its 2026 outlook, now guiding to roughly $3.8 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share (EPS, or profit per outstanding share). Its commercial operations segment has been the standout, with revenue growth driven by nuclear components, field services, and fuel handling. The company also pays a modest quarterly dividend and maintains a substantial multi-billion-dollar backlog. Despite this operational momentum, the stock pulled back over the most recent six-month stretch, a reminder that positive fundamentals do not always translate immediately into share-price gains.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions provides unmanned aerial target drones, the XQ-58A Valkyrie tactical drone, hypersonic systems, solid rocket motors (SRMs), small turbojet engines, and virtualized satellite ground systems. The company has reported record consolidated backlog of about $2.0 billion and a book-to-bill ratio (new orders versus revenue) above 1.0, signaling healthy demand across its segments.
Recent catalysts include more than $100 million in space and cyber contracts, a successful 5G satellite-ground connectivity trial, and validation of its GEK800 missile engine with GE Aerospace. Management expects hypersonic revenue to roughly double in 2026 and rise further in 2027. Even so, the stock has declined substantially year to date, and sentiment has cooled. Analysts have trimmed price targets while generally retaining positive ratings, citing federal budget uncertainty, supply-chain friction, elevated capital spending, and near-term cash-flow usage as key concerns. This mix of strong bookings and weak near-term profitability defines KTOS's current investment profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly in business model and risk profile. BWXT benefits from a highly stable, sole-source relationship with the U.S. Navy, generating predictable cash flows and a dividend, while layering on a faster-growing commercial nuclear opportunity. Its risk profile skews toward execution on capacity investments and a back-loaded earnings calendar. KTOS is more entrepreneurial, funding internal development of drones, hypersonics, and engines that could scale significantly but require heavy upfront capital and depend on government appropriations.
On momentum, BWXT has held up better than its industry peer group in recent months, whereas KTOS has been a notable underperformer despite record bookings. On valuation, KTOS trades at a rich price-to-sales (P/S) multiple relative to some peers, while its return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability) trails the industry average. BWXT offers stronger current profitability but a more moderate growth trajectory. In short, BWXT represents stability with an emerging growth option, while KTOS represents higher optionality with greater volatility and near-term cash-flow strain.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BWXT in the current environment. BWXT pairs a defensive, cash-generating government franchise with an accelerating commercial nuclear story, raised full-year guidance, and a growing backlog—characteristics that typically correspond to more stable and persistent price trends. KTOS offers compelling long-term growth potential across hypersonics and unmanned systems, but its negative momentum, richer valuation, supply-chain headwinds, and near-term cash consumption introduce greater uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects relative positioning rather than a blanket view on either company's long-term prospects.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BWXT is a Hold and KTOS is a Hold.
BWXT in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
BWXT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 36 cases where BWXT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BWXT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BWXT advanced for three days, in 226 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BWXT as a result. In 49 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BWXT turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BWXT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for BWXT entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BWXT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.206) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (30.884) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). BWXT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (27.780) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.811) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
KTOS sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
KTOS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 05, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KTOS as a result. In 66 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KTOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for KTOS entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KTOS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KTOS advanced for three days, in 242 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
KTOS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KTOS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KTOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.923) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). KTOS's P/E Ratio (195.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.599) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BWXT | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 89 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 82 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KTOS's Valuation (92) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (97). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (63) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (89). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (89). This means that BWXT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (79) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (82). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (95). This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| BWXT | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 70% | 14 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWXT’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while KTOS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- BWXT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWXT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWXT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -8.55% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -14.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWXT is expected to report earnings on Mar 01, 2027.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.18% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | +3.97% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 75% Closely correlated | +6.82% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 61% Loosely correlated | +12.20% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 56% Loosely correlated | +5.12% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 54% Loosely correlated | +4.53% | ||
| DCO - BWXT | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
More | ||||
KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been closely correlated with AVAV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then AVAV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | +5.12% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 71% Closely correlated | +10.46% | ||
| RCAT - KTOS | 65% Loosely correlated | +18.65% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 64% Loosely correlated | +12.20% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | +42.13% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | +3.15% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
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| KORU | 6.91 | 0.38 | +5.82% |
| Direxion Daily MSCI South Korea Bull 3X ETF (KORU) | |||
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| Baron Global Durable Advantage ETF (BCGD) | |||
| TOGA | 30.50 | N/A | N/A |
| Tremblant Global ETF (TOGA) | |||
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| GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF (AMZZ) | |||