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AJG vs GSHD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a global insurance brokerage, risk-management, and consulting firm with a market capitalization near $60 billion, while Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) is a much smaller, high-growth personal-lines insurance agency valued around $1.6 billion.
- The two names occupy opposite ends of the insurance-distribution spectrum: AJG is a diversified, acquisition-driven commercial broker, whereas GSHD is a fast-scaling, tech-enabled consumer agency operating through corporate and franchise locations.
- AJG offers a modest dividend yield and premium valuation but has lagged the broader market this year, while GSHD pays no dividend and has posted strong year-to-date and one-year returns despite a sharp pullback from its 52-week high.
- AJG's growth leans heavily on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), whereas GSHD's growth is tied to organic policy placement, written-premium expansion, and agent productivity.
- Both stocks carry above-average price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples relative to the broader insurance industry, reflecting distinct growth and profitability expectations.
Introduction
Comparing AJG and GSHD pairs a global insurance-brokerage giant against a fast-growing personal-lines agency, offering a useful lens on two very different ways to invest in insurance distribution. Both companies generate revenue from commissions and fees rather than underwriting risk, yet their scale, business models, and market positioning could hardly be more different. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing steady, dividend-paying scale against higher-growth, more volatile exposure, as well as to traders tracking relative performance and momentum across the insurance-brokerage sector.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
AJG, or Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., is one of the world's largest insurance brokerage, risk-management, and consulting firms, serving commercial clients across retail property and casualty (P&C), wholesale, reinsurance, and benefits. Recent market activity has been mixed: the shares have recovered off their lows but remain below their 52-week high, and the company has generally underperformed the broader market over the past year even as longer-term total returns remain positive.
In recent quarters, revenue growth has been propelled largely by acquisitions. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose roughly 28% year over year, with organic growth of about 5% and the remainder driven by M&A, including the large AssuredPartners transaction. Management has signaled up to $10 billion in potential deal capacity over a two-year horizon. Analysts have trimmed price targets in recent weeks on softer property pricing and integration considerations, though the consensus rating remains a Buy. A rising dividend and a defensive, recurring-revenue profile continue to anchor the stock's appeal for income-oriented and long-horizon investors.
GSHD Overview and Recent Performance
GSHD, or Goosehead Insurance, is an independent personal-lines insurance agency distributing homeowners, auto, and small-commercial products through corporate and franchise locations across the United States. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Westlake, Texas, the company represents more than 200 carriers and competes through a technology-driven, agent-led service model.
Recent performance has been strong but volatile. The stock has delivered notable year-to-date and one-year gains, yet it trades well below its 52-week high after a significant drawdown, reflecting a higher beta and elevated short interest relative to larger brokers. Fundamentals have improved: second-quarter 2026 revenue grew about 21% year over year, net income rose sharply, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expanded. Full-year guidance calls for organic revenue growth in the low-to-mid teens and written-premium growth of 12% to 20%. Sentiment remains divided, with some analysts trimming price targets on valuation and competitive concerns even as others retain constructive ratings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between AJG and GSHD is scale and business mix. AJG operates globally across commercial brokerage and risk management, funded by a steady acquisition pipeline and supported by a dividend. GSHD is a domestic, consumer-focused agency whose growth depends on agent recruitment, franchise productivity, and rising written premiums rather than M&A.
Risk profiles also diverge. AJG carries execution and integration risk tied to large deals and is sensitive to softening commercial P&C pricing, but its diversification and recurring revenue provide relative stability. GSHD is more exposed to personal-lines pricing cycles, carrier relationships, and competitive pressures from digital and direct distribution, and its higher beta and elevated short interest make it more sensitive to sentiment shifts. On valuation, both trade above the broader insurance-industry average, though GSHD's forward multiple has compressed alongside its share-price retreat, while AJG's premium reflects its scale and defensive qualities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AJG in the current environment. The stock's diversified revenue base, recurring cash flows, and dividend support a steadier, more consistent profile, while GSHD's higher volatility and elevated short interest introduce greater directional uncertainty. That said, a momentum-oriented bot focused on shorter timeframes could favor GSHD given its stronger recent percentage gains. The more probable AI stance favors AJG for stability and consistency, with GSHD remaining a higher-beta alternative for strategies prioritizing growth and momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a StrongBuy and GSHD is a StrongBuy.
AJG's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AJG as a result. In 56 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +7.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 208 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AJG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.793) is normal, around the industry mean (2.616). P/E Ratio (42.356) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
GSHD's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GSHD moved out of oversold territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 35 of the 41 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GSHD as a result. In 64 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSHD just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSHD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSHD advanced for three days, in 227 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSHD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
GSHD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GSHD entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GSHD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GSHD's P/B Ratio (-10.720) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.616). P/E Ratio (35.399) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). GSHD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (76.820) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.322). GSHD's Dividend Yield (0.467) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GSHD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
AJG | GSHD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 75 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GSHD's Valuation (94) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (96). This means that GSHD’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GSHD (100). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
GSHD's SMR Rating (19) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80). This means that GSHD’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (75). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GSHD (84). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | GSHD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 49% | 24 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while GSHD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- GSHD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GSHD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GSHD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +9.00% price change this week, while GSHD (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +1.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +9.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
GSHD is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+9.64% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | +4.88% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 80% Closely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | +4.23% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 72% Closely correlated | +4.58% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 60% Loosely correlated | +5.19% | ||
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GSHD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GSHD has been loosely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GSHD jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GSHD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSHD | 100% | +11.69% | ||
| BRO - GSHD | 63% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| TWFG - GSHD | 62% Loosely correlated | +8.64% | ||
| AJG - GSHD | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.88% | ||
| MRSH - GSHD | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| AON - GSHD | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
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