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BWIN vs GSHD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) vs. Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: BWIN is a diversified insurance distribution and brokerage platform, while GSHD is a technology-enabled personal-lines insurance agency built on a franchise model.
- Diverging momentum: BWIN has rallied sharply over the past year, whereas GSHD has posted a steep decline over the same period.
- Profitability contrast: BWIN is growing revenue rapidly but remains unprofitable on a trailing basis, while GSHD is profitable but faces compressed valuations and cautious analyst revisions.
- Catalyst risk: BWIN carries event-driven risk from a pending merger/take-private transaction, while GSHD faces sentiment headwinds from repeated price-target reductions.
- Sector overlap, different exposures: Both operate in insurance distribution, but BWIN skews commercial and advisory, and GSHD skews personal lines and franchise economics.
Introduction
Investors comparing BWIN and GSHD are effectively weighing two very different ways to invest in U.S. insurance distribution. The Baldwin Insurance Group, trading as BWIN, is a diversified brokerage and distribution platform serving millions of clients. Goosehead Insurance, trading as GSHD, is a personal-lines agency scaling through corporate agents and a franchise network. Both stocks sit within the financial services sector, yet their recent relative performance, growth profiles, and risk characteristics have diverged meaningfully. This comparison is relevant for traders focused on momentum and relative strength, as well as longer-horizon investors assessing business-model quality, profitability, and event-driven catalysts in the current market environment.
BWIN Overview and Recent Performance
BWIN — The Baldwin Insurance Group, formerly BRP Group — is an independent insurance distribution firm headquartered in Tampa, Florida. It operates through three segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions (which includes a managing general agency, or MGA, platform), and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The company reports representing more than three million clients across the United States and internationally.
In recent market activity, BWIN has been one of the stronger performers among insurance distributors. The stock trades near the upper end of its 52-week range and has posted a roughly 32%–38% gain over the past year, outpacing the broader market. Revenue growth has been robust, with trailing twelve-month revenue around $1.7 billion, though the company remains unprofitable on a trailing basis, with negative earnings per share (EPS) reflecting acquisition-related and other costs. Sentiment has been shaped by both steady organic growth and a pending merger/take-private transaction disclosed in recent securities filings, which introduces event-driven considerations for the share price.
GSHD Overview and Recent Performance
GSHD — Goosehead Insurance — is a personal-lines insurance agency based in Westlake, Texas, distributing homeowner, auto, and other personal and small-commercial insurance through corporate agents and a network of roughly 2,000 franchise producers. The company partners with more than 200 insurance carriers and emphasizes a technology-driven, digital distribution platform.
GSHD has experienced a more difficult stretch. The stock has fallen more than 50% over the past year and now trades well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of weakening technical momentum. Despite this, fundamentals have shown resilience: recent quarterly revenue rose around 23% year-over-year, and net income improved meaningfully, supported by growth in policies in force and strong client retention. Market sentiment, however, has been pressured by a series of analyst price-target reductions tied to softer renewal-commission retention, higher investment spending, and a demanding valuation relative to the broader insurance sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BWIN and GSHD offer contrasting risk-reward profiles. BWIN is a diversified, acquisition-oriented distributor whose commercial and advisory mix provides broad revenue streams, but its trailing unprofitability and a pending take-private transaction introduce balance-sheet and event risk. GSHD, by contrast, is a focused, capital-light personal-lines franchise with positive earnings and a high-growth technology narrative, yet it carries a premium valuation and has faced repeated downward revisions in analyst targets.
On momentum, BWIN holds a clear edge, with strong year-to-date and one-year relative performance versus GSHD's pronounced decline. On profitability and simplicity, GSHD's fee- and commission-based model and improving net income stand out, even as its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains elevated relative to the wider insurance industry. Risk factors also differ: BWIN's share count and debt have grown with acquisitions, while GSHD faces exposure to personal-lines pricing cycles, climate-related catastrophe risk, and digital disintermediation. In short, BWIN currently leads on trend strength, while GSHD presents a more volatile, growth-oriented profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst profile, Tickeron's AI would likely favor BWIN in the current environment. The stock's sustained uptrend, position near 52-week highs, and supportive relative performance against both GSHD and the broader market suggest stronger trend consistency. GSHD's technical weakness — trading below key moving averages amid falling analyst targets — signals a less favorable momentum setup, even though its fundamentals are improving. Because AI-driven signals weigh trend stability and momentum heavily, the probabilistic edge currently tilts toward BWIN, though ongoing event risk from its pending merger and GSHD's potential for reversal remain important variables to monitor.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BWIN is a StrongBuy and GSHD is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for BWIN turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BWIN saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BWIN advanced for three days, in 225 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 49 of 59 cases where BWIN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BWIN turned negative on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 84%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BWIN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.492) is normal, around the industry mean (2.616). BWIN has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-30.371) as compared to the industry average of (18.071). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.265) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BWIN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BWIN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
GSHD's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GSHD moved out of oversold territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 35 of the 41 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GSHD as a result. In 64 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSHD just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSHD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSHD advanced for three days, in 227 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSHD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
GSHD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GSHD entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GSHD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GSHD's P/B Ratio (-10.720) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.616). P/E Ratio (35.399) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). GSHD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (76.820) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.322). GSHD's Dividend Yield (0.467) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GSHD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
BWIN | GSHD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 75 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BWIN's Valuation (7) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for GSHD (94) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that BWIN’s stock grew significantly faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
BWIN's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as GSHD (100) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that BWIN’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
GSHD's SMR Rating (19) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for BWIN (94) in the null industry. This means that GSHD’s stock grew significantly faster than BWIN’s over the last 12 months.
BWIN's Price Growth Rating (40) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GSHD (75) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that BWIN’s stock grew somewhat faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
BWIN's P/E Growth Rating (63) in the null industry is in the same range as GSHD (84) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that BWIN’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
| BWIN | GSHD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 25 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWIN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while GSHD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BWIN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GSHD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWIN’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GSHD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWIN’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 3 bearish.
- GSHD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BWIN (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а -0.13% price change this week, while GSHD (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +11.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +7.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWIN is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
GSHD is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+7.30% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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BWIN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWIN has been loosely correlated with GSHD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BWIN jumps, then GSHD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWIN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN | 100% | -0.09% | ||
| GSHD - BWIN | 52% Loosely correlated | +11.69% | ||
| BRO - BWIN | 50% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| TWFG - BWIN | 46% Loosely correlated | +8.64% | ||
| MRSH - BWIN | 44% Loosely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| AJG - BWIN | 44% Loosely correlated | +4.88% | ||
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GSHD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GSHD has been loosely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GSHD jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GSHD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSHD | 100% | +11.69% | ||
| BRO - GSHD | 63% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| TWFG - GSHD | 62% Loosely correlated | +8.64% | ||
| AJG - GSHD | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.88% | ||
| MRSH - GSHD | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| AON - GSHD | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
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