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BRO vs GSHD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Brown & Brown (BRO) vs. Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Brown & Brown (BRO) is a large, diversified insurance brokerage with roughly $20 billion in market value, while Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) is a much smaller, tech-enabled personal lines agency worth just over $1.5 billion.
- Both stocks have faced meaningful downward pressure recently, but for different reasons: BRO has contended with softer organic growth and property-rate pressure, while GSHD has dealt with high leverage and persistent valuation concerns.
- BRO offers stability through scale, acquisitions, share buybacks, and a dividend; GSHD offers faster revenue growth and a distinctive franchise distribution model, but carries no dividend and elevated balance-sheet risk.
- Analyst sentiment is more constructive on GSHD on average (consensus "Buy"), while BRO carries a mixed-to-cautious Wall Street stance despite several new bullish initiations.
- The two businesses are not direct peers in scale or strategy, making this a contrast between mature, diversified brokerage and higher-growth, higher-risk agency model.
Introduction
Investors evaluating insurance distribution often face a choice between established scale and faster growth. BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) sit at opposite ends of that spectrum within the same broad industry. This stock comparison examines how each company is positioned in the current market environment, their recent price behavior, and the factors shaping sentiment. It is most relevant to traders and investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and the trade-offs between a diversified brokerage giant and a growth-oriented personal lines agency. The analysis below focuses on observable, verifiable developments rather than forecasts.
BRO Overview and Recent Performance
Brown & Brown is one of the largest independent insurance brokerages in the United States, distributing commercial, retail, and specialty insurance products alongside employee benefits services across the U.S., U.K., and internationally. Its scale and acquisition-driven strategy have historically supported a durable franchise, but recent market activity has been less favorable. Over the past year, shares have fallen sharply, with total shareholder returns down more than a third, reflecting repeated organic growth shortfalls and ongoing pressure on property-catastrophe (CAT) pricing.
In recent weeks, sentiment has been mixed. Several firms have initiated or reaffirmed constructive views, citing improving organic growth, synergies from the Accession acquisition, and meaningful share repurchases. Management has also emphasized artificial intelligence initiatives aimed at productivity and efficiency. At the same time, other analysts have trimmed price targets, and the stock remains below key moving averages. The core tension for investors is whether execution on acquisitions, buybacks, and AI-driven efficiency can offset softer underlying revenue momentum.
GSHD Overview and Recent Performance
Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing personal lines insurance agency that distributes homeowner, auto, and other personal and small commercial coverage through corporate agents and a large network of franchise producers. Its technology-enabled, franchise-based model differentiates it from traditional brokers, and the company has invested heavily in digital capabilities, including an expanded "Digital Agent" platform and artificial intelligence.
Recent performance reflects a more volatile trajectory. Revenue has grown at a double-digit pace, and the company reported a strong first-quarter with meaningful gains in revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). However, the stock has declined considerably over a longer horizon, trading well below its 52-week high and below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Analysts have issued a wide range of price targets, and several recently lowered them, while consensus remains a "Buy." Elevated debt, negative equity, and a demanding valuation continue to weigh on sentiment despite the growth story.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two names is business model and scale. BRO operates as a diversified, acquisitive brokerage with exposure to commercial, retail, specialty, and benefits segments, supported by recurring commissions and fee income. GSHD is a concentrated personal lines agency whose growth depends on expanding its franchise and corporate producer network and converting policies into commissions.
Growth dynamics also differ. GSHD has delivered consistently higher percentage revenue growth, but this comes with greater execution and balance-sheet risk, including a sizable term loan and negative equity. BRO grows more modestly and leans on acquisitions and buybacks, yet carries a far larger, more diversified revenue base and a dividend. On market sentiment, BRO's recent weakness is tied to organic growth and property-rate pressure, while GSHD's decline reflects valuation compression and concerns about leverage and carrier concentration. In essence, BRO offers relative stability and capital return, while GSHD offers higher growth potential paired with higher volatility and risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a more cautious-to-neutral stance on both names but would probably favor BRO on a relative basis in the current environment. BRO benefits from greater trend stability, a diversified revenue base, meaningful buyback support, and a more resilient capital structure, which tend to score favorably on risk-adjusted measures even amid soft organic growth. GSHD's stronger growth and constructive analyst consensus are offset by weak momentum, high leverage, and negative equity, which typically weigh on stability-oriented signals. Because both stocks remain below key moving averages, the AI would likely frame any preference in probabilistic terms, emphasizing that relative positioning could shift with upcoming earnings and changes in sector pricing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BRO is a Hold and GSHD is a StrongBuy.
BRO in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BRO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BRO as a result. In 43 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BRO just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where BRO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
BRO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BRO advanced for three days, in 174 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BRO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
BRO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BRO entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BRO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BRO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.981) is normal, around the industry mean (2.616). P/E Ratio (20.866) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.910) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.322) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
GSHD's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GSHD moved out of oversold territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 35 of the 41 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GSHD as a result. In 64 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSHD just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSHD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSHD advanced for three days, in 227 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSHD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
GSHD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GSHD entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GSHD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GSHD's P/B Ratio (-10.720) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.616). P/E Ratio (35.399) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.071). GSHD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (76.820) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.322). GSHD's Dividend Yield (0.467) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GSHD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
BRO | GSHD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 75 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BRO's Valuation (84) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (94). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
BRO's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (100). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
GSHD's SMR Rating (19) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BRO (71). This means that GSHD’s stock grew somewhat faster than BRO’s over the last 12 months.
BRO's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (75). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
BRO's P/E Growth Rating (67) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (84). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
| BRO | GSHD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 53% | 7 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 55% | 24 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BRO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while GSHD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BRO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- GSHD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BRO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GSHD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BRO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GSHD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BRO (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +9.58% price change this week, while GSHD (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +11.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +9.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
BRO is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
GSHD is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+9.72% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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GSHD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GSHD has been loosely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GSHD jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GSHD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSHD | 100% | +11.69% | ||
| BRO - GSHD | 63% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| TWFG - GSHD | 62% Loosely correlated | +8.64% | ||
| AJG - GSHD | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.88% | ||
| MRSH - GSHD | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.57% | ||
| AON - GSHD | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
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