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ALGT vs LUV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ALGT has shown stronger recent momentum, gaining over 10% in the past month amid merger developments, compared to more modest gains for LUV.
- Allegiant Travel, a smaller leisure-focused carrier, trades at a lower market cap of about $1.7B versus Southwest's $20.5B, offering higher growth potential but elevated volatility.
- Both stocks have delivered robust one-year returns—ALGT up over 100% and LUV around 72%—reflecting airline sector recovery, though ALGT outperforms on relative basis.
- Recent catalysts for ALGT include U.S. DOT approval and antitrust clearance for its $1.5B merger with Sun Country Airlines, boosting sentiment.
- LUV benefits from scale, a dividend yield of 1.72%, and upcoming Q1 earnings, with analysts projecting revenue growth.
- AI analysis leans toward ALGT for short-term trend consistency, while LUV appeals for stability in a volatile sector.
Introduction
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) represent key players in the U.S. low-cost airline sector, catering to leisure and point-to-point travelers respectively. This stock comparison evaluates their recent market performance, business models, and positioning amid fluctuating fuel costs, capacity constraints, and merger activity. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye ALGT's volatility, while long-term investors might prefer LUV's operational scale. With airlines rebounding from pandemic lows, understanding relative performance aids decisions in this cyclical industry.
ALGT Overview and Recent Performance
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) operates as a leisure travel provider, offering nonstop flights from underserved cities to vacation destinations using a fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. In recent market activity, ALGT shares have climbed significantly, with gains exceeding 10% over the past month and over 100% in the last year, driven by positive earnings beats and strategic developments. Sentiment has shifted upward following U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) approval and antitrust clearance for its proposed $1.5 billion merger with Sun Country Airlines (SNCY), signaling expansion potential despite high debt levels (total debt/equity at 177%). Year-to-date returns stand positive around 6-8%, outperforming peers amid sector recovery, though beta of 1.63 indicates heightened risk.
LUV Overview and Recent Performance
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is a major low-cost carrier providing scheduled flights across the U.S. and select international routes with a Boeing 737 fleet. Recent weeks have seen steady but less explosive performance, with year-to-date gains around 1.6% and one-year returns near 72%, reflecting resilience in a challenging environment. Key influences include analyst upgrades, loyalty program enhancements, and anticipation for Q1 earnings on April 22, projecting revenue growth to $7.22 billion. Profit margins remain slim at 1.57%, supported by scale (market cap $20.5B) and lower leverage (debt/equity 75%), with a beta of 1.18 suggesting moderate volatility compared to smaller peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ALGT and LUV both thrive in low-cost aviation but differ in scale and focus: ALGT targets niche leisure routes with ancillary revenue emphasis, while LUV emphasizes high-frequency point-to-point service and loyalty programs. Growth drivers for ALGT include the Sun Country merger for fleet expansion, contrasting LUV's organic capacity growth amid labor and fuel pressures. Recent momentum favors ALGT with double-digit monthly gains versus LUV's stability. Risk factors: ALGT faces higher leverage and negative EPS (TTM -2.48), while LUV offers positive earnings (0.79) and dividends. Sector exposure is identical (airlines), but ALGT's smaller size amplifies volatility; market sentiment tilts toward ALGT on catalysts, LUV on proven execution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ALGT over LUV due to superior trend consistency, relative outperformance in recent weeks, and merger catalysts enhancing growth prospects. While LUV provides stability and scale, ALGT's positioning suggests higher probability of near-term upside in a recovering airline market.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALGT is a Buy and LUV is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALGT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLUV’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALGT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LUV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALGT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LUV’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALGT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LUV’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ALGT (@Airlines) experienced а +7.24% price change this week, while LUV (@Airlines) price change was +5.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +2.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALGT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
LUV is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+2.47% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| ALGT | LUV | ALGT / LUV | |
| Capitalization | 2.78B | 24.2B | 11% |
| EBITDA | 336M | 2.72B | 12% |
| Gain YTD | 19.784 | 18.541 | 107% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.91 | 32.38 | 55% |
| Revenue | 2.64B | 28.9B | 9% |
| Total Cash | 902M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 6.4B | 29% |
ALGT | LUV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 26 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALGT's Valuation (26) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (26). This means that ALGT’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
ALGT's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (100). This means that ALGT’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's SMR Rating (72) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALGT (93). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALGT (37). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's P/E Growth Rating (61) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALGT (91). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to ALGT’s over the last 12 months.
| ALGT | LUV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 84% | 21 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 72% |
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ALGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALGT has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALGT jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALGT | 100% | +1.37% | ||
| DAL - ALGT | 76% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| AAL - ALGT | 75% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| UAL - ALGT | 73% Closely correlated | +0.30% | ||
| SNCY - ALGT | 72% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| LUV - ALGT | 72% Closely correlated | +1.25% | ||
More | ||||
LUV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUV has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUV jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.