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ASML vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Nova (NVMI) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- ASML is the sole global supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, giving it a near-monopoly position at the center of AI chip production, while Nova is a smaller, faster-growing provider of semiconductor metrology (measurement) and process-control tools.
- Both stocks have posted strong year-to-date gains on AI-driven demand, though NVMI has experienced a sharper recent pullback relative to ASML.
- ASML has raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook multiple times on "extremely strong" orders, while Nova has delivered record quarterly revenue and market-share gains.
- Scale differs sharply: ASML carries a market capitalization of roughly $680 billion versus a small-cap profile for Nova, creating very different risk and volatility profiles.
- Both names face sector-wide risks, including export controls (a particular overhang for ASML) and cyclical swings in customer capital expenditure (cap-ex).
2) Introduction
Semiconductor equipment is among the most direct ways to gain exposure to the artificial intelligence buildout, yet the stocks in this space are far from identical. This stock comparison examines ASML, the Netherlands-based maker of the lithography machines required to manufacture cutting-edge chips, against NVMI, Israel-based Nova Ltd., a specialist in metrology and process control used throughout chip fabrication. Investors weighing large-cap stability against smaller-cap growth, or contrasting monopoly economics against high-growth niche leadership, may find this relative performance review useful for understanding each company's market positioning.
3) ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is the world's only producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the multi-hundred-million-dollar machines essential to manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors. As AI infrastructure spending has accelerated, demand has outpaced supply, and ASML has raised its 2026 full-year sales forecast multiple times in recent quarters, reflecting "extremely strong" order intake from customers such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix and Micron.
Recent market activity has been largely constructive, with shares delivering a substantial year-to-date gain and a market capitalization near $680 billion, making ASML one of Europe's most valuable companies. Sentiment has been supported by record memory-related demand and capacity-expansion commitments from major chipmakers. However, the stock trades at a premium price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of roughly 57–58 times, and valuation alongside tightening U.S. export controls on sales and servicing of older lithography tools to China has been a recurring source of near-term volatility. China's contribution to sales has also been declining, even as other regions pick up the slack.
4) NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
NVMI, Nova Ltd., designs and sells material, optical and chemical metrology systems that help chipmakers monitor and control the fabrication process, an area growing in importance as device complexity increases. The company has reported record quarterly results in recent periods, with revenue rising double digits year over year and non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share setting new highs, driven by advanced DRAM memory demand, logic/foundry growth and market-share gains in film and critical-dimension metrology.
Despite strong fundamentals, Nova's shares have been more volatile than ASML's in recent weeks. After a sharp year-to-date advance of more than 50%, the stock pulled back notably over the trailing 30- and 90-day periods, a reminder of the higher volatility that can accompany a smaller, higher-multiple growth company. Management has responded with a new $200 million share repurchase program, and analyst sentiment remains broadly positive. Nova's diversified revenue mix — roughly two-thirds logic and foundry, one-third memory — and its positioning toward advanced packaging and hybrid bonding give it distinct growth drivers.
5) Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page is a curated showcase of the platform's top-performing automated trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the ones best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics and the sets of tickers they trade — ranging from trend-following and swing systems to shorter-term momentum approaches. For traders comparing stocks like ASML and NVMI, the page offers a way to observe which automated strategies are currently adapting to shifting market regimes. Explore the Trending AI Robots to see the strategies performing best right now.
6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies operate in the same semiconductor-equipment sector but at different points in the value chain and at vastly different scale. ASML is a monopoly provider of lithography systems with a roughly $680 billion market capitalization, giving it pricing power and a structurally secure position but also a more mature, large-cap growth profile and direct exposure to export-control policy. Nova is a smaller player in process control and metrology, competing against larger rivals while winning share through technology adoption in advanced nodes, advanced packaging and memory.
In terms of growth drivers, both benefit from AI-led chip demand, but Nova's revenue base is growing from a smaller level, supporting a faster growth rate, while ASML's growth is gated more by its own production capacity and customer clean-room space. On momentum, ASML has shown more consistent relative strength in recent weeks, whereas Nova's pullback reflects the sharper drawdowns typical of higher-beta small caps. Risk factors differ: ASML faces concentrated geopolitical and export-control risk, while Nova faces competition and customer-concentration risk in a more fragmented market. Both carry premium valuations, making sentiment and order trends critical to their relative performance.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward ASML as the more probable relative performer in the near term. ASML's combination of a dominant competitive moat, repeatedly raised guidance, and steadier price action suggests more persistent trend strength and lower volatility than Nova's recent drawdown. That said, Nova's faster growth, market-share momentum and lower valuation on a forward basis could make it more attractive to momentum-oriented or higher-risk-tolerance strategies if its trend stabilizes. The verdict is probabilistic and should be read as an assessment of current market positioning rather than a definitive forecast.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and NVMI is a Hold.
ASML in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 37 cases where ASML's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 242 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 67 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (27.397) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.078). P/E Ratio (61.273) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NVMI in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 32 cases where NVMI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 243 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 206 of 274 cases where NVMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVMI as a result. In 70 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVMI turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.039) is normal, around the industry mean (8.078). P/E Ratio (46.142) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
ASML | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 76 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (62) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (84). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (55). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (45). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVMI (76). This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (31). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 72% | 17 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NVMI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -7.80% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -9.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -18.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-18.80% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -2.50% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 85% Closely correlated | -4.87% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -4.85% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -4.82% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 79% Closely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| ENTG - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -5.54% | ||
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