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ASML vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVMI has outperformed ASML in year-to-date returns, with approximately 59% gains compared to ASML's 49%, driven by strong demand in advanced packaging.
- ASML maintains a dominant market position with a $597 billion market cap and $33.7 billion in revenue, dwarfing NVMI's $16.5 billion cap and $881 million revenue.
- Both stocks benefit from AI and semiconductor growth, but NVMI's higher P/E ratio of 65 signals premium valuation versus ASML's 52.
- Recent U.S. export restrictions pose risks to ASML's China sales, while NVMI shows robust momentum in metrology for gate-all-around (GAA) transistors and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
- Tickeron's AI bots trading semiconductor tickers, including ASML, have delivered up to 96% annualized returns recently.
Introduction
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) and Nova Ltd. (NVMI) operate in the semiconductor equipment sector, crucial for advanced chip production amid surging AI demand. ASML dominates lithography, while NVMI excels in metrology (precision measurement tools). This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term semiconductor exposure. With both benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout, relative performance highlights trade-offs in scale, valuation, and risk in today's volatile market.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML, headquartered in the Netherlands, is the global leader in photolithography systems, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines essential for cutting-edge chips. Its business model centers on high-value equipment sales, complemented by high-margin services and upgrades, generating recurring revenue. In recent market activity, ASML shares have risen nearly 50% year-to-date and over 127% in the past year, reflecting robust EUV demand from AI leaders like TSMC. Sentiment has been tempered by U.S.-led export curbs on deep ultraviolet (DUV) sales to China, proposed via the MATCH Act, potentially impacting service revenue from existing installations. Despite this, ASML raised its full-year outlook, underscoring AI-driven backlog strength amid geopolitical headwinds.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (NVMI), based in Israel, specializes in metrology and process control solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, enabling precise inline measurements across lithography, etch, deposition, and advanced packaging steps. Its integrated hardware-software platform leverages machine learning for critical dimension control. Recent weeks have seen NVMI shares surge about 59% year-to-date and 179% over the past year, fueled by 31% full-year 2025 revenue growth and 60% expansion in advanced packaging. Key catalysts include adoption of its Metrion platform by major foundries for gate-all-around and HBM technologies, with Q4 2025 results showing 14% quarterly revenue growth to $223 million. Momentum persists ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, supported by semiconductor capacity ramps.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the top 25 performers from over 351 AI trading bots, selected by advanced algorithms analyzing real-time performance amid market volatility. These bots trade thousands of tickers across stocks, ETFs, and crypto, employing diverse strategies like momentum, sector rotation, and hedging on timeframes from 5 minutes to days. Standout stats include annualized returns up to 285%, win rates of 51-88%, and profit factors reaching 11.7, with low-drawdown leaders in semiconductors (e.g., a 60-minute bot including ASML at 96% annualized return, 64% win rate). Tailored for current conditions like AI infrastructure and volatility, they offer copy-trading signals for various risk profiles. Explore these high-conviction bots to enhance your strategy in dynamic markets.
Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML's lithography monopoly contrasts with NVMI's metrology niche, both pivotal in sub-3nm nodes. ASML boasts massive scale ($33.7B revenue, $11.9B EBITDA) versus NVMI's $881M revenue, but NVMI edges in growth velocity with superior YTD (59% vs. 49%) and 1-year returns (179% vs. 127%). Risk profiles differ: ASML faces China export pressures (25% sales exposure), heightening geopolitical volatility, while NVMI benefits from diversified demand in advanced packaging and lower debt ($799M vs. ASML's $2.71B). Sector exposure aligns on AI/semiconductors, but NVMI's higher P/E (65 vs. 52) reflects momentum premium amid GAA/HBM ramps. Market sentiment favors NVMI's stability in recent trading, though ASML's $38B+ backlog signals enduring catalysts. Trade-offs pit ASML's defensive moat against NVMI's agile outperformance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward NVMI based on superior trend consistency, recent momentum, and positioning in high-growth advanced packaging amid AI chip ramps. NVMI's 59% YTD gains and inclusion in strong semiconductor bot portfolios (nearby peers at 96% annualized) outweigh ASML's scale amid export overhangs. However, ASML's EUV dominance offers probabilistic upside if restrictions ease. This favors short-term NVMI exposure with ASML for balanced portfolios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a StrongBuy and NVMI is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNVMI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +13.51% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +22.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +17.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +135.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+17.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ASML | NVMI | ASML / NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 727B | 18.5B | 3,930% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 284M | 4,190% |
| Gain YTD | 75.030 | 77.548 | 97% |
| P/E Ratio | 62.47 | 73.16 | 85% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 903M | 3,732% |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | 1.1B | 762% |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 800M | 338% |
ASML | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (70) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (84). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (16). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (43). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (36). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (11). This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | -1.89% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +5.55% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +2.64% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 71% Closely correlated | +4.19% | ||
| CAMT - ASML | 69% Closely correlated | +4.95% | ||
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | +4.19% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | +5.55% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | +2.64% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | +4.95% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 72% Closely correlated | +6.70% | ||
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