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ASML vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML and ONTO both operate in semiconductor equipment, but they differ sharply in scale, business model, and risk profile.
- ASML is the dominant supplier of advanced lithography systems, while ONTO focuses on process control, metrology, and advanced packaging inspection.
- Both names pulled back in recent weeks during a broad semiconductor and AI-related selloff, though ONTO's decline was considerably steeper given its higher volatility.
- ASML reported record quarterly revenue and raised its longer-term outlook, while ONTO posted a record backlog and strong growth guidance.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: ASML — its trend consistency, stability, and more diversified demand base currently position it as the favored ticker of the two.
- For deeper coverage, explore ASML Major News and ASML Today's Price Move, as well as ONTO Major News and ONTO Today's Price Move.
- Discover the best-performing automated strategies for current market conditions by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating semiconductor-equipment exposure often weigh established leaders against faster-growing specialists. This stock comparison examines ASML, the Dutch lithography giant, against ONTO, a U.S.-based process-control and metrology supplier riding the advanced-packaging boom. Both companies serve the same broader chip-manufacturing ecosystem, yet their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. For long-term investors seeking stability and pricing power, and for growth-oriented traders monitoring AI-driven semiconductor demand, understanding these contrasts is essential. The comparison that follows weighs recent momentum, fundamentals, and market sentiment to help clarify which name currently presents the more favorable setup.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) is the world's leading supplier of lithography systems used to print patterns on silicon wafers, including its exclusive EUV (extreme ultraviolet) machines required for the most advanced chips. Its dominant, near-monopoly position gives it significant pricing power and a deep, recurring services revenue stream. In recent weeks, the company reported record quarterly net sales of approximately €11.7 billion, with gross margin around 57.5%, and management reaffirmed plans to expand EUV and DUV (deep ultraviolet) capacity substantially into 2027 and 2028.
Despite these solid results, the stock has been caught up in a broader semiconductor selloff driven by investor concerns over AI-infrastructure spending and data-center demand. Over roughly the past month, shares pulled back notably from their 52-week highs, though they remain well above year-ago levels. The combination of strong fundamentals and recent price weakness reflects a market repricing sector-wide risk rather than a deterioration in ASML's core business.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) designs and manufactures process-control tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including macro-defect inspection and metrology systems. Its Dragonfly G5 and Atlas G6 platforms serve the high-growth advanced-packaging and HBM (high-bandwidth memory, the specialized memory used in AI accelerators) markets. Recent quarters have shown strong momentum: revenue rose roughly 35% year over year, earnings beat estimates, and the company finished its latest reported quarter with a record backlog above $1.1 billion while guiding higher.
Yet ONTO is a far more volatile stock. After a powerful run-up earlier in 2026, shares gave back a large portion of those gains during the recent AI-driven selloff, declining more than half from their 52-week high before rebounding sharply in early November. The stock's elevated beta and concentrated exposure to AI-related packaging demand mean its price swings tend to be amplified relative to the broader sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy different rungs of the semiconductor-equipment supply chain. ASML is a large-cap franchise with a dominant moat in lithography, a roughly $570 billion market capitalization, and a diversified customer base spanning logic and memory manufacturers. Its growth is tied to long-term fab investment cycles and the transition to more advanced process nodes. ONTO, by contrast, is a much smaller company — with a market capitalization in the single-digit billions — whose fortunes are more tightly linked to advanced packaging, HBM, and AI-compute demand.
This contrast shapes their risk profiles. ONTO offers higher potential growth and a strongly bullish analyst consensus, but it carries a far higher beta and has shown greater downside during sector selloffs. ASML provides greater stability, a stronger balance sheet, and more diversified demand, though its near-term share price has also been pressured by broader sentiment. For risk-tolerant investors, ONTO's leverage to AI packaging is a key catalyst; for those prioritizing trend consistency and durability, ASML's franchise quality is the defining advantage.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as trend consistency, price stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor ASML over ONTO. The reasoning is probabilistic rather than definitive: ASML's larger, more diversified revenue base, dominant market position, and recently reaffirmed capacity-expansion plans suggest a more stable and durable trend, even amid sector volatility. ONTO's higher growth potential and strong backlog are notable positives, but its elevated beta and sharper recent drawdown introduce greater inconsistency in its price trend. Consequently, the AI leans toward ASML as the more resilient choice in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and ONTO is a Buy.
ASML's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ASML moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 63 cases where ASML's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +11.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 64 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASML entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (25.074) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (56.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ONTO in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
ONTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 35 cases where ONTO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONTO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 60 of 69 cases where ONTO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONTO just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONTO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +10.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONTO advanced for three days, in 265 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONTO as a result. In 77 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
ONTO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ONTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONTO entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONTO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.423) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (64.899) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.817) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.787) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ASML | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONTO's Valuation (79) in the null industry is in the same range as ASML (88) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (59) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (65) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the null industry is in the same range as ASML (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 7 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +2.55% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -2.41% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +6.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -17.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -31.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+6.88% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +1.76% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 86% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 83% Closely correlated | +6.05% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 83% Closely correlated | +5.24% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +4.58% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +8.89% | ||
More | ||||
ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | +8.89% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 86% Closely correlated | +6.05% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 85% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | +5.24% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | +11.29% | ||
| UCTT - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +6.25% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MIDU | 64.68 | 1.46 | +2.31% |
| Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X ETF (MIDU) | |||
| PMAY | 42.31 | 0.29 | +0.69% |
| Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - May (PMAY) | |||
| FTNJ | 8.57 | 0.01 | +0.12% |
| Franklin New Jersey Municipal Income ETF (FTNJ) | |||
| VMBS | 45.21 | -0.05 | -0.11% |
| Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) | |||
| IREZ | 21.38 | -2.54 | -10.62% |
| Tradr 2X Short IREN Daily ETF (IREZ) | |||