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ASML vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale, shared tailwind: ASML is Europe's most valuable company and a near-monopoly in advanced lithography, while ONTO is a faster-growing mid-cap focused on semiconductor process control and inspection.
- Both are leveraged to the AI chip buildout, but through different value chain positions — ASML prints the chips' circuitry, while ONTO inspects and measures it.
- Relative performance has favored ONTO's momentum recently, though ASML has also posted triple-digit gains over the past year.
- ASML carries geopolitical risk tied to China export restrictions; ONTO faces valuation and customer-concentration risks after a rapid rally.
- Both stocks trade at elevated multiples, making trend consistency and catalysts central to any relative comparison.
Introduction
Semiconductor capital equipment has become one of the clearest "picks-and-shovels" ways to gain exposure to the artificial intelligence buildout. This stock comparison examines two companies operating at different ends of that spectrum. ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) is the world's sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines needed to manufacture the most advanced chips. ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) provides inspection, metrology, and process-control tools that help chipmakers and packaging firms improve yields. Investors weighing a large-cap monopoly against a high-growth mid-cap, or comparing relative performance and market positioning within the same AI-driven cycle, may find this comparison particularly relevant.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. designs and builds lithography systems — essentially "chip-printing" machines that use light to carve circuitry onto silicon wafers. It is the only company that produces EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography tools, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars each and are essential for leading-edge logic and memory chips supplied by customers such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and SK Hynix.
In recent market activity, ASML has been among the strongest performers in European equities. Management has raised its full-year revenue guidance twice this year on what it described as "extremely strong" order intake, as chipmakers accelerate capacity expansion to meet AI demand. The stock has climbed sharply over the past year, although quarterly guidance softness and valuation concerns have triggered pullbacks after earnings. Key influences on sentiment include surging memory-chip demand, physical limits on how quickly customers can install new equipment, and proposed U.S. legislation that could further restrict sales of certain tools to China.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation Inc. is a Massachusetts-based provider of process-control solutions, combining inspection, metrology (measurement), and software to help semiconductor manufacturers detect defects and optimize yields across logic, memory, and advanced packaging. Its portfolio includes the Dragonfly G5 inspection platform and Atlas G6 metrology system, both gaining traction among leading chipmakers.
In recent weeks, ONTO has reported record quarterly revenue and a backlog that surpassed $1 billion for the first time, supported by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced 2.5D/3D packaging used in AI accelerators. The company raised its growth outlook, particularly in advanced packaging, and deepened its partnership with X-ray specialist Rigaku through a roughly $710 million minority stake, following its earlier Semilab USA acquisition. ONTO's shares have delivered triple-digit gains over the past year, outpacing many peers, though the rapid appreciation has raised questions about whether near-term expectations already discount much of the growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy complementary but distinct positions within the semiconductor equipment market. ASML is a large-cap, near-monopoly supplier of a single, extremely high-value product category, which gives it strong pricing power but ties its fortunes to a relatively small number of ultra-expensive tools and exposes it to geopolitical export risk. ONTO operates in a more competitive process-control segment alongside peers such as KLA and Camtek, but it is smaller and has demonstrated faster revenue growth, particularly in the advanced-packaging niche.
On growth drivers, ASML benefits from multi-year fabrication capacity buildouts, while ONTO benefits from the rising complexity of chip packaging and inspection as transistor scaling slows. On recent momentum, ONTO's percentage gains have exceeded ASML's, though ASML offers a more established, liquid franchise. Risk factors differ meaningfully: ASML faces concentrated exposure to China-related export policy, while ONTO faces higher valuation multiples, customer concentration, and integration risk tied to recent acquisitions. Sector exposure is similar, but the trade-off is essentially between scale and monopoly durability versus higher growth and greater competition.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view both names constructively but with different emphasis. ONTO's stronger recent momentum, record backlog, and accelerating advanced-packaging guidance suggest the AI would lean toward it for trend-following strategies, while ASML's durable monopoly, raised guidance, and established liquidity make it a more stable, lower-volatility candidate. A probabilistic assessment would likely favor ONTO on momentum and near-term growth, and ASML on stability and structural moat — with the final preference depending on the strategy and timeframe being evaluated.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and ONTO is a Hold.
ASML sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
ASML saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 12, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 63 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ASML's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 240 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (27.464) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.371). P/E Ratio (61.342) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
Momentum Indicator for ONTO turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ONTO saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 97 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 77 of the 97 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ONTO turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 77%.
ONTO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ONTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONTO advanced for three days, in 267 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
ONTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 187 of 227 cases where ONTO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ONTO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.670) is normal, around the industry mean (6.371). P/E Ratio (83.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.817) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.787) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ASML | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONTO's Valuation (82) in the null industry is in the same range as ASML (89) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (59) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (63) in the null industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as ASML (7) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 72% | 21 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 68% | 7 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 82% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -5.85% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -7.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -10.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -23.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-10.98% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | -10.57% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 84% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | -6.37% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | -13.12% | ||
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