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AN vs GPI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AutoNation (AN) vs. Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AN delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted earnings-per-share growth, while GPI posted a year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS.
- Both companies are large U.S. automotive retailers facing softer new- and used-vehicle volumes, but their growth engines and balance-sheet profiles differ meaningfully.
- AN is leaning on recurring after-sales revenue, a fast-scaling captive finance arm, and aggressive share buybacks; GPI is integrating a major acquisition while prioritizing deleveraging.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, earnings momentum, and balance-sheet positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors AN over GPI.
- For deeper context, explore AN Major News and AN Today's Price Move, as well as GPI Major News and GPI Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI applies this kind of analysis across thousands of stocks, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
AutoNation (AN) and Group 1 Automotive (GPI) are two of the largest franchised auto dealership groups in the United States, making them a natural pairing for a stock comparison. Both generate the bulk of their revenue from new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance-and-insurance (F&I) products, so they are sensitive to the same macro forces: interest rates, vehicle affordability, and inventory levels. Yet their recent relative performance has diverged, driven by differences in capital allocation, geographic and brand mix, and balance-sheet strategy. This comparison is most relevant for investors and traders evaluating consumer-cyclical and automotive-retail exposure, as well as those seeking to understand how two comparable businesses can signal different levels of resilience in the same market environment.
AN Overview and Recent Performance
AutoNation is the second-largest automotive retailer in the United States, operating more than 245 dealerships plus collision centers and used-vehicle stores concentrated in Sunbelt metropolitan areas. In its most recent quarterly report, AN extended its streak of year-over-year adjusted EPS growth to seven consecutive quarters, with adjusted EPS rising modestly even as revenue was roughly flat. The stock responded positively to the release, reflecting better-than-expected headline results.
Beneath the surface, the results highlight a strategic shift toward recurring revenue. After-sales delivered a record gross-profit quarter and now accounts for roughly half of total gross profit, while AutoNation Finance, the company's captive lending arm, grew its portfolio to approximately $2.9 billion with improving profitability. These higher-margin, annuity-style businesses helped offset a decline in new and used retail unit volumes and normalizing per-vehicle gross profit. Management has also made share repurchases a centerpiece of its capital allocation, deploying substantial buybacks that have reduced the share count meaningfully over the past year. That approach supports per-share growth but also increases leverage, a trade-off investors are watching closely.
GPI Overview and Recent Performance
Group 1 Automotive operates more than 250 dealerships and collision centers across the United States and the United Kingdom, offering dozens of automotive brands with a notable footprint in Texas and a meaningful UK presence. In its latest quarter, GPI reported a decline in total revenue and adjusted EPS compared with the prior year, and results came in below consensus expectations, contributing to a muted share-price reaction.
The company is in the middle of a portfolio transformation. It completed the Hennessy acquisition, adding 10 dealerships and roughly $1.7 billion in annualized revenue with a premium-brand mix, while simultaneously divesting non-core stores. This "upgrade the mix" strategy is intended to improve the quality of earnings over time, but it carries near-term costs: pro forma leverage has risen above management's target, prompting a pause in share repurchases until debt is reduced. Encouragingly, Group 1's UK business showed improvement from restructuring efforts, and U.S. after-sales set records in customer-pay revenue and repair orders. Still, same-store U.S. new and used vehicle volumes declined, reflecting the same affordability pressures affecting the broader sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two retailers is where each is placing its capital. AN has emphasized returning cash to shareholders through aggressive buybacks while building recurring earnings from after-sales and captive finance. GPI has prioritized reshaping its portfolio through a major acquisition and asset sales, temporarily pausing buybacks to manage elevated leverage.
Geographically and by brand, the two companies differ as well. AutoNation is heavily concentrated in Sunbelt U.S. markets, while Group 1 adds meaningful international exposure through the UK and a larger premium-brand tilt following its Hennessy acquisition. On valuation, GPI trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple and offers a modest dividend, whereas AN carries a somewhat higher multiple and no dividend, reflecting its buyback-focused return model. From a risk standpoint, Group 1's higher pro forma leverage and integration execution are key watch items, while AutoNation's risk centers on consumer affordability and its growing but still young finance portfolio.
Tickeron AI Verdict
On the observable factors most relevant to relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward AN. The company's streak of adjusted EPS growth, record after-sales results, scaling finance business, and strong free-cash-flow conversion suggest more consistent near-term momentum than GPI, which is absorbing acquisition-related leverage and a below-consensus quarter. Group 1's mix-upgrade strategy may improve its quality of earnings over time, but that thesis remains execution-dependent and carries higher balance-sheet friction in the interim. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: it reflects trend consistency, stability of catalysts, and relative positioning at this point in the cycle, not a prediction of future prices.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AN is a Buy and GPI is a Buy.
AN in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AN as a result. In 60 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AN just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
AN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AN advanced for three days, in 221 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 124 of 232 cases where AN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AN moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
AN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.693) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (8.440) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.444) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.255) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for GPI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GPI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 82 of the 100 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GPI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where GPI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
GPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GPI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +3.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPI advanced for three days, in 225 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 65 cases where GPI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GPI entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.055) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (10.751) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
AN | GPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 49 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 75 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GPI's Valuation (49) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (60). This means that GPI’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
AN's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (75). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
AN's SMR Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GPI (73). This means that AN’s stock grew somewhat faster than GPI’s over the last 12 months.
AN's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (57). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
GPI's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (77). This means that GPI’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
| AN | GPI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 65% | 11 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 61% | 7 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while GPI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GPI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GPI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AN (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +2.04% price change this week, while GPI (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was -0.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -2.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
AN is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
GPI is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-2.92% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
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AN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AN has been closely correlated with PAG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AN jumps, then PAG could also see price increases.
GPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GPI has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GPI jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.
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