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GPI vs LAD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Group 1 Automotive (GPI) vs. Lithia Motors (LAD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both GPI and LAD are large U.S. automotive retailers facing softer new-vehicle volumes, but their recent earnings trajectories have diverged.
- LAD beat consensus estimates with adjusted EPS (earnings per share) up 9% year over year, while GPI missed estimates as margins compressed.
- LAD is generating stronger momentum from used vehicles, aftersales, and its in-house Driveway Finance Corporation (DFC), a captive financing arm.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On the balance of trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalysts, the AI currently favors LAD over GPI.
- For more detail on each name, explore GPI Major News and GPI Today's Price Move, as well as LAD Major News and LAD Today's Price Move.
- To see which trading strategies are leading right now, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) and Lithia Motors (LAD) are two of the largest publicly traded automotive retailers in the United States, each operating franchised dealerships across a broad mix of brands while expanding internationally in the United Kingdom and, for Lithia, Canada. Because both companies compete for the same customers, inventory, and acquisition targets, they offer a useful side-by-side test of execution within the same cyclical industry. This stock comparison is especially relevant for investors and traders evaluating how two similarly exposed businesses are navigating softening new-vehicle demand, higher interest costs, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin aftersales and financing revenue.
GPI Overview and Recent Performance
Group 1 Automotive, headquartered in Houston, operates over 250 dealerships and dozens of collision centers across the U.S. and the U.K., spanning roughly 36 automotive brands. Its most recent quarterly results reflected a mixed picture: total revenue declined about 6.7% year over year to roughly $5.4 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS fell around 10% versus the prior-year period. Reported diluted EPS of $8.59 came in below analyst estimates, and the stock traded lower following the release. Margin pressure was a central theme, with U.S. same-store new-vehicle units down 4.6% and used-vehicle volumes down 10%, while new-vehicle gross profit per unit eased sequentially.
Offsetting those headwinds, aftersales has been a bright spot, with record U.S. customer-pay revenue and growth in repair orders, alongside improving U.K. operations. In recent weeks the company also closed the Hennessy acquisition, adding 10 dealerships and roughly $1.7 billion in annualized revenue, while pursuing portfolio dispositions to reduce leverage, which remains elevated on a pro forma basis.
LAD Overview and Recent Performance
Lithia Motors, also known as Lithia & Driveway and based in Medford, Oregon, is the largest U.S. auto retailer, with nearly 500 stores across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. and close to 60 brands. Its latest quarter showed more constructive momentum: revenue was roughly $9.95 billion, adjusted diluted EPS rose 9% year over year to $10.34, beating consensus estimates, and the company raised its quarterly dividend by 7%. Used-vehicle gross profit per unit climbed 13%, and aftersales gross profit grew for an eighth consecutive quarter with margins expanding.
Lithia's captive finance arm, Driveway Finance Corporation (DFC), contributed meaningfully, with finance-operations income up nearly 70% and managed receivables growing 22%. Despite these results, shares pulled back in recent trading as investors weighed rising interest costs and elevated leverage of around 3.1x net. Management continues to emphasize cost efficiency through its Pinewood.AI digital platform and disciplined capital allocation, including ongoing share repurchases.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two retailers is scale and execution emphasis. LAD is roughly 60% larger by revenue and has leaned heavily into a diversified ecosystem of used vehicles, aftersales, and captive financing, which generates recurring, higher-margin income and cushions weaker new-vehicle sales. GPI is more concentrated on premium-brand and geographic mix upgrades, including its U.K. footprint and the recent Hennessy acquisition, but has shown softer same-store unit trends and a larger sequential margin squeeze.
On momentum, LAD has posted consecutive quarters of aftersales growth and strong used-vehicle GPU (gross profit per unit) gains, while GPI is leaning on cost actions and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) to offset volume declines. Risk profiles differ too: LAD carries a growing finance-receivables book that introduces credit and interest-rate sensitivity, whereas GPI faces elevated leverage following acquisitions and has paused buybacks while it deleverages. Both trade at modest valuation multiples typical of the auto-retail sector, leaving relative performance to be driven primarily by execution and earnings-revision trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward LAD over GPI. The preference rests on LAD's stronger and more consistent earnings momentum — including a consensus beat, rising adjusted EPS, eight consecutive quarters of aftersales growth, and a fast-growing captive finance business — versus GPI's earnings miss and margin compression. LAD also offers a steadier mix of recurring revenue streams that may hold up better amid softening vehicle demand. That said, both names carry leverage and interest-rate sensitivity, and the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive; relative positioning could shift as acquisition integration and cost programs evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GPI is a Buy and LAD is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for GPI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GPI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 82 of the 100 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GPI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where GPI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
GPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GPI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +3.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPI advanced for three days, in 225 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 45 of 65 cases where GPI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GPI entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.055) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (10.751) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
LAD in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
LAD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 29 cases where LAD's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LAD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LAD as a result. In 67 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LAD just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where LAD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
LAD moved above its 50-day moving average on November 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LAD advanced for three days, in 217 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 43 of 63 cases where LAD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LAD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for LAD entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LAD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.060) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (10.204) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.561) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.213) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LAD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
GPI | LAD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GPI's Valuation (49) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LAD (57). This means that GPI’s stock grew similarly to LAD’s over the last 12 months.
GPI's Profit vs Risk Rating (75) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LAD (100). This means that GPI’s stock grew similarly to LAD’s over the last 12 months.
LAD's SMR Rating (68) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (73). This means that LAD’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
LAD's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (57). This means that LAD’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
LAD's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GPI (73). This means that LAD’s stock grew somewhat faster than GPI’s over the last 12 months.
| GPI | LAD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 71% | 7 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | 24 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GPI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while LAD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- LAD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GPI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LAD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GPI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LAD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GPI (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -0.31% price change this week, while LAD (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +2.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
GPI is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
LAD is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-3.16% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
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GPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GPI has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GPI jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.
LAD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LAD has been closely correlated with AN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LAD jumps, then AN could also see price increases.
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