Advertisement
GPI vs PAG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Group 1 Automotive (GPI) vs. Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GPI is a Houston-based automotive retailer concentrated in the U.S. and U.K.; PAG is a diversified international transportation-services and auto/truck retail company.
- Both companies are contending with softer U.S. new-vehicle volumes while relying on resilient aftersales (parts and service) revenue to protect profitability.
- PAG has agreed to be taken private at $212 per share by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co., which caps near-term upside and is expected to delist the stock in early 2027.
- GPI remains publicly traded with a consensus "Buy" rating and average analyst price targets implying meaningful upside, supported by the Hennessy acquisition and a deleveraging plan.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: GPI is the favored ticker in this comparison, reflecting continued public-market upside and catalysts versus PAG's capped, event-driven valuation.
- For more coverage, explore GPI Major News and GPI Today's Price Move, along with PAG Major News and PAG Today's Price Move.
- Discover curated strategies and opportunities by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) and Penske Automotive Group (PAG) are two of the largest publicly traded automotive retailers in the United States, yet their recent trajectories have diverged sharply. While both operate in the same cyclical sector and face a softer U.S. new-vehicle market, PAG is moving toward a take-private transaction, whereas GPI continues to execute an active growth-and-optimization strategy. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and whether an event-driven, capped valuation or an ongoing public-market story offers the more compelling setup.
GPI Overview and Recent Performance
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) owns and operates roughly 250-plus dealerships, hundreds of franchises, and dozens of collision centers across the United States and the United Kingdom, offering a broad range of vehicle brands. Recent market activity has reflected margin pressure alongside portfolio transformation. The company's latest quarterly results showed a decline in total revenue year over year, as same-store U.S. new-vehicle unit sales slipped, while net income rose sharply versus a weak prior-year comparison.
Investor sentiment in recent weeks has centered on two forces. On one hand, aftersales has been a bright spot, with record customer-pay revenue and growing repair orders supporting profitability. On the other, new-vehicle gross profit per unit has compressed, and management paused share repurchases while pro forma leverage remains above target. The completion of the Hennessy acquisition in late October—adding high-volume, premium-brand dealerships in Atlanta—signaled continued emphasis on higher-revenue stores. Analysts maintain a consensus "Buy" on GPI, with average price targets well above recent trading levels, though the stock has traded below its 52-week high.
PAG Overview and Recent Performance
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is a diversified international transportation-services company and one of the world's largest auto and commercial truck retailers, with operations spanning the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia. It is also a leading North American retailer of Freightliner commercial trucks and holds a minority stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS), a large truck-leasing and logistics business.
The defining development for PAG in recent weeks has been an agreement to be taken private by Motown Acquisition Corp., an entity owned by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co., at $212 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately $16.3 billion. The stock jumped on the announcement and has traded near the offer price, roughly in line with its 52-week high. Operationally, PAG reported second-quarter results that beat earnings estimates, supported by service-and-parts growth and improving commercial-truck trends, even as gross margins narrowed and selling costs rose.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's AI trading bots. Tickeron offers hundreds of automated trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the strategies best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance, and the sets of tickers they follow, giving traders a range of approaches—from short-term momentum to longer-horizon positioning. The page highlights robots selected for their alignment with prevailing market trends and their recent statistical track records. For investors seeking a data-driven, automated perspective on opportunities like this GPI versus PAG comparison, exploring the Trending AI Robots page is a practical next step.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies compete in automotive retail, their business models and near-term catalysts differ meaningfully. PAG carries broader diversification through commercial trucks, a power-systems distribution segment, and its PTS affiliate, while GPI is more concentrated in franchised dealerships and collision centers. In terms of momentum, PAG has shown stronger recent relative performance, driven largely by the take-private premium. By contrast, GPI has lagged, with its shares trading below prior highs amid margin concerns.
The key trade-off is valuation versus catalyst. PAG's price is anchored near the $212 offer, leaving limited further upside and effectively removing it from public markets. GPI, meanwhile, trades at a modest earnings multiple with analyst targets implying notable upside, though it carries higher near-term execution risk around integration, deleveraging, and vehicle-margin recovery. Risk factors include affordability pressures and rising compliance costs for both, as well as financing-cost sensitivity in a leveraged dealership model.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor GPI in this comparison. While PAG has benefited from a clear event-driven catalyst, its take-private agreement at $212 per share constrains further appreciation and points toward delisting in early 2027, reducing its utility as an ongoing trend candidate. GPI, by contrast, remains actively traded with a consensus "Buy" rating, an improving aftersales franchise, strategic acquisition activity, and a deleveraging pathway—factors that collectively suggest a more durable, if still uncertain, setup. This assessment reflects probabilities and observable market positioning rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GPI is a Buy and PAG is a Buy.
GPI's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GPI turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where GPI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GPI as a result. In 79 of 100 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
GPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GPI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +3.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPI advanced for three days, in 225 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 65 cases where GPI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GPI entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.055) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (10.751) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
PAG's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PAG moved out of oversold territory on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 57 cases where PAG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAG as a result. In 62 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
PAG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +0.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAG advanced for three days, in 206 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 138 of 241 cases where PAG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PAG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.398) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (15.422) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). PAG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.087) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.438) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
GPI | PAG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GPI's Valuation (49) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAG (86). This means that GPI’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAG’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for GPI (76). This means that PAG’s stock grew significantly faster than GPI’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's SMR Rating (54) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (73). This means that PAG’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as GPI (55). This means that PAG’s stock grew similarly to GPI’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GPI (73). This means that PAG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GPI’s over the last 12 months.
| GPI | PAG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | about 1 month ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GPI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while PAG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PAG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GPI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAG’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GPI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PAG’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
GPI (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -0.31% price change this week, while PAG (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
GPI is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
PAG is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-3.16% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
Advertisement
GPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GPI has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GPI jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.
PAG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAG has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAG jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.