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AN vs PAG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AutoNation (AN) vs. Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AN (AutoNation) has leaned on aggressive share repurchases, record after-sales profit, and a fast-scaling captive finance unit to deliver its seventh straight quarter of year-over-year adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth, even as vehicle unit sales softened.
- PAG (Penske Automotive Group) announced a take-private agreement at $212 per share in cash, which has effectively anchored its stock price near the deal level and caps near-term public-market upside.
- The two names carry very different risk profiles: AN remains a publicly traded pure-play U.S. auto retailer, while PAG is a diversified global transportation company now transitioning toward private ownership.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On a relative basis, Tickeron's AI currently favors AN, reflecting its intact public-market growth story, buyback-driven EPS support, and analyst consensus that still implies meaningful upside, versus the defined, deal-capped catalyst now limiting PAG.
- For more detail on these names, explore AN Major News, AN Today's Price Move, PAG Major News, and PAG Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently in favor across the market, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
AutoNation (AN) and Penske Automotive Group (PAG) are two of the largest and most closely followed names in U.S. automotive retail, yet their current market positioning could hardly be more different. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors evaluating relative performance, capital-allocation strategy, and sector exposure in a period of softer vehicle demand, normalizing margins, and shifting ownership structures. Whether you are a long-term investor assessing recurring revenue streams or a short-term trader tracking momentum and catalysts, understanding how these two dealers compare can clarify which risk-and-reward profile better matches current market conditions.
AN Overview and Recent Performance
AN, or AutoNation, is the second-largest automotive retailer in the United States, operating more than 245 dealerships plus collision centers, used-vehicle stores, and a captive finance arm concentrated in Sunbelt metro areas. In recent weeks, the company reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $5.11, up roughly 2% year over year, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of adjusted EPS growth. The drivers of that resilience were recurring: after-sales posted a record gross profit of about $617 million, and AutoNation Finance scaled its portfolio to roughly $2.9 billion with a quarterly profit that climbed to $15 million from $2 million a year earlier.
Vehicle sales, however, remained a headwind. New retail units fell about 3% and used retail units about 5%, while new-vehicle gross profit per unit declined. AutoNation has responded with heavy buybacks—roughly $620 million year to date and an additional $1 billion authorization—which reduced its share count by about 12% year over year and amplified per-share results even as core vehicle economics softened. The stock has been volatile within a broad 52-week range, and Wall Street's consensus rating remains a "Buy" with price targets that imply meaningful upside from recent levels.
PAG Overview and Recent Performance
PAG, or Penske Automotive Group, is a diversified international transportation-services company operating dealerships across the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia. It is also one of North America's largest retailers of commercial trucks for Freightliner and holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS), a large fleet-management business.
The defining development for PAG in recent weeks was not an earnings print but a change in ownership. In mid-October, the company agreed to be taken private by Motown Acquisition Corp., an entity owned by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co., at $212 per share in cash, implying an enterprise value of roughly $16.3 billion. The announcement sent the stock up more than 8%, roughly matching the premium offered, and the deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027. Operationally, PAG continues to pay a steady quarterly dividend and has pursued dealership acquisitions, but its public-market story is now largely defined by the merger-arbitrage spread between the current share price and the $212 cash offer rather than by long-term fundamental growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is structural. AN is a concentrated, U.S.-centric auto retailer whose growth now depends heavily on after-sales and captive finance, supplemented by aggressive buybacks that shrink the share count and boost EPS (earnings per share). PAG is more diversified across geographies, commercial trucks, power systems, and an affiliate stake, but its take-private deal has effectively transformed it into a special-situation holding trading near a fixed cash offer.
On momentum and catalysts, PAG has outperformed year to date, aided by the buyout premium, while AN has lagged the broader market over the past year amid vehicle-affordability pressures and higher inventory. On risk, PAG now carries deal-completion risk and limited upside, whereas AN carries cyclicality risk tied to auto sales, interest rates, and consumer credit. Investors seeking income may note that PAG pays a dividend while AutoNation does not; investors seeking ongoing public-market upside may find AutoNation's buyback-driven model more aligned with that objective.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward AN as the more favorable ticker of the two. The reasoning is probabilistic rather than definitive: AN retains a functioning public-market growth narrative built on recurring after-sales and finance income, a shrinking share count, and analyst targets that still suggest upside, whereas PAG's appeal is now largely capped by the fixed $212 cash price. While PAG offers a defined, relatively stable catalyst, its near-term upside is constrained and its long-term public trading life is ending, tilting the AI's relative preference toward AN.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AN is a Buy and PAG is a Buy.
AN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
AN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 45 of 62 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AN as a result. In 62 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AN just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The 10-day moving average for AN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +5.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AN advanced for three days, in 221 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AN moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
AN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AN entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.693) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (8.440) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.444) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.255) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PAG's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PAG moved out of oversold territory on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 57 cases where PAG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAG as a result. In 62 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
PAG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +0.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAG advanced for three days, in 206 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 138 of 241 cases where PAG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PAG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.398) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (15.422) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). PAG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.087) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.438) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
AN | PAG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AN's Valuation (60) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PAG (86). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to PAG’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (48). This means that PAG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
AN's SMR Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PAG (54). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to PAG’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (48). This means that PAG’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
PAG's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (77). This means that PAG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
| AN | PAG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 61% | about 1 month ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PAG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PAG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAG’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAG’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AN (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +3.15% price change this week, while PAG (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
AN is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
PAG is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-3.16% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
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AN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AN has been closely correlated with PAG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AN jumps, then PAG could also see price increases.
PAG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAG has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAG jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.