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APO vs OWL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap is wide: APO manages roughly $1.05 trillion in AUM (assets under management), while OWL manages about $319 billion.
- Divergent recent momentum: OWL has faced sharp selling pressure tied to private-credit redemption concerns, while APO has held up comparatively better despite a broader pullback in alternative asset managers.
- Different business profiles: APO spans credit, private equity, and retirement services, whereas OWL concentrates on credit, real assets, and GP strategic capital.
- Income profiles differ: OWL's elevated dividend yield reflects investor concern about payout coverage, while APO's dividend is backed by record fee and spread-related earnings.
- Sentiment is the key variable: OWL's path forward hinges on easing withdrawal pressures in non-traded credit funds, while APO's centers on origination and retirement-services growth.
Introduction
Apollo Global Management (APO) and Blue Owl Capital (OWL) are two prominent names in the alternative asset management sector, yet they sit at very different points in the market's confidence cycle. Both firms generate fee revenue from managing private assets, but their scale, product mix, and recent relative performance have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders assessing exposure to private credit, retirement services, and alternative investment platforms. It examines business models, growth drivers, momentum, and market positioning to clarify the trade-offs each ticker presents in the current environment.
APO Overview and Recent Performance
Apollo Global Management is a diversified alternative asset manager operating across investment-grade credit, private equity, infrastructure, secondaries, real estate, and retirement services through its Athene platform. In recent quarters, Apollo crossed a notable threshold, with AUM surpassing $1 trillion and continuing to climb to roughly $1.05 trillion. Management reported record fee-related earnings (FRE, the recurring profit from management fees) of $728 million in the first quarter of 2026, alongside $719 million in spread-related earnings (SRE, income tied to investment spreads) and adjusted net income of about $1.94 per share.
Despite this operating momentum, Apollo's shares have been volatile in recent market activity, with a pullback of roughly 13% over a one-month span and a decline of more than 20% year to date at points during the period, even as its five-year total return remains strongly positive. The firm has emphasized heavy origination activity, exceeding $70 billion in a single recent quarter, and has expanded daily pricing transparency across its credit platform. These moves reflect Apollo's push to modernize private-market liquidity and disclosure, factors that have supported long-term sentiment even amid near-term valuation reassessment.
OWL Overview and Recent Performance
Blue Owl Capital is an alternative asset manager focused on three platforms: Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital, anchored by a large base of permanent capital. The firm reported roughly $315 billion in AUM at the end of the first quarter of 2026, rising to about $319 billion by mid-year, supported by continued fundraising across its platforms. Fee-related earnings grew by double digits in recent quarters, reflecting steady management-fee income.
However, OWL's stock has been one of the most pressured among alternative managers, falling roughly 45% or more from its 52-week high during recent market activity. The primary catalyst has been elevated redemption requests in its non-traded private credit funds, particularly the technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC) and the flagship Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC). The firm maintained a 5% quarterly withdrawal cap as requests exceeded that threshold, though redemption pressure has shown signs of easing across successive quarters. This dynamic has pushed OWL's dividend yield into the high single digits and focused investor attention on the sustainability of its payout relative to distributable earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale and diversification. APO's roughly $1.05 trillion in AUM spans credit, private equity, and a large retirement-services franchise, giving it multiple revenue streams and a comparatively diversified earnings base. OWL's roughly $319 billion in AUM is concentrated in credit, real assets, and GP strategic capital, which has made it more sensitive to sentiment surrounding the private-credit market specifically.
On growth drivers, APO has emphasized record origination and capital formation, benefiting from demand for investment-grade credit and infrastructure financing. OWL has continued to raise capital across all three platforms, but its growth narrative has been complicated by redemption backlogs and concerns about borrower quality in technology-heavy direct lending. From a risk standpoint, OWL carries elevated headline risk tied to fund liquidity and dividend coverage, while APO's risks are more oriented toward valuation, mark-to-market sensitivity, and the broader credit cycle. Market sentiment has favored APO's steadier, more diversified profile in recent weeks, even as both names remain exposed to the same sector-wide rotation away from private-credit-heavy asset managers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward APO in the current comparison. APO's combination of record fee-related earnings, a more diversified platform, and a comparatively resilient share-price trend offers a more consistent signal set than OWL, which continues to contend with redemption-driven volatility and dividend-coverage scrutiny. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: if private-credit withdrawal pressures continue to ease, OWL's discounted valuation and high yield could attract renewed interest. Investors should weigh these trade-offs against their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APO is a Hold and OWL is a Hold.
APO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for APO entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 144 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 112 of the 144 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APO as a result. In 52 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
APO moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for APO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 60 cases where APO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APO just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where APO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The 50-day moving average for APO moved above the 200-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APO advanced for three days, in 251 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
APO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.584) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). P/E Ratio (42.349) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.446) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.062) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. APO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
OWL sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for OWL moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where OWL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OWL as a result. In 61 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OWL just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where OWL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +4.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OWL advanced for three days, in 228 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
OWL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 59 cases where OWL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
OWL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for OWL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OWL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for OWL entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.135) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). OWL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (76.250) as compared to the industry average of (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.146) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.100) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.303) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. OWL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OWL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
APO | OWL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 72 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OWL's Valuation (4) in the null industry is in the same range as APO (15) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that OWL’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Profit vs Risk Rating (54) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OWL (100) in the null industry. This means that APO’s stock grew somewhat faster than OWL’s over the last 12 months.
OWL's SMR Rating (86) in the null industry is in the same range as APO (88) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that OWL’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as OWL (72) in the null industry. This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to OWL’s over the last 12 months.
APO's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is significantly better than the same rating for OWL (92) in the null industry. This means that APO’s stock grew significantly faster than OWL’s over the last 12 months.
| APO | OWL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 7 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while OWL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- APO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- OWL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OWL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OWL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APO (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.28% price change this week, while OWL (@Investment Managers) price change was +2.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -3.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.87%.
Reported Earning Dates
APO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
OWL is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-3.42% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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APO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APO has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APO jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
OWL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OWL has been closely correlated with ARES. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OWL jumps, then ARES could also see price increases.