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APO vs CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Apollo Global Management (APO) operates at far greater scale, with roughly $1.05 trillion in assets under management (AUM) versus about $485 billion for The Carlyle Group (CG).
- Apollo's model skews toward credit origination and retirement services, while Carlyle remains anchored in private equity, global credit, and secondaries.
- Both firms posted record fee-related earnings (FRE) in recent quarters, but their stock-price trajectories have diverged amid shifting market sentiment.
- Apollo has pulled back from multi-year highs in recent weeks despite record earnings, while Carlyle trades well below its average analyst target.
- Relative performance, valuation, and growth catalysts differ materially, giving each name a distinct risk-reward profile for investors.
Introduction
Apollo Global Management and The Carlyle Group are two of the most recognized names in alternative asset management, yet they compete from very different positions. Apollo has scaled into a trillion-dollar credit-and-retirement franchise, while Carlyle is a diversified but smaller platform focused on private equity, credit, and its AlpInvest secondaries business. For investors weighing exposure to private markets, this stock comparison highlights how business mix, momentum, and market positioning can drive divergent outcomes even within the same industry. The analysis is especially relevant for those tracking relative performance between a large-cap compounder and a mid-cap turnaround story.
APO Overview and Recent Performance
Apollo Global Management (APO) is a global alternative asset manager that spans investment-grade credit, private equity, and retirement services through its Athene platform. As of mid-2026, Apollo reported approximately $1.05 trillion in AUM, reflecting rapid growth in credit origination and capital formation. The company has delivered record fee-related earnings in recent quarters, supported by strong origination volumes and rising spread-related earnings in its retirement services segment.
Despite this fundamental momentum, Apollo's shares have faced a pullback in recent market activity. After a prolonged multi-year advance, the stock has retraced meaningfully from its highs, with investors reassessing valuation and near-term risk. Apollo trades at a premium to the broader financials sector on a price-to-earnings basis, even as analysts maintain generally constructive ratings. Sentiment has been shaped by a combination of record earnings, large financing roles tied to AI infrastructure and media transactions, and the company's recent expansion of daily pricing across its credit platform. Broader concerns about the exit environment and fee-pool durability have also weighed on the shares in recent weeks.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
The Carlyle Group (CG) is a global investment firm that deploys private capital across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest, its secondaries and solutions business. With roughly $485 billion in AUM, Carlyle is considerably smaller than Apollo and has been executing a multi-year transformation under CEO Harvey Schwartz, targeting higher fee-related earnings, improved margins, and a significant multi-year fundraising plan.
Carlyle's recent quarters have shown a mix of strength and headwinds. Management has highlighted record U.S. buyout realizations, strong inflows led by AlpInvest and credit, and its highest distributable earnings in nearly four years. At the same time, investment-related losses pressured GAAP revenue in an earlier quarter, and expenses have risen. The stock has traded in a volatile range, and analysts have trimmed some price targets while maintaining a broadly favorable consensus. Relative to its own history and peer set, Carlyle's shares have underperformed in recent market activity, leaving the stock well below the average analyst price target even as its transformation narrative continues to build.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between Apollo and Carlyle is scale and business mix. Apollo's model is heavily weighted toward credit origination and retirement services, which generate comparatively durable, spread-based earnings and give the firm exposure to insurance-linked capital. Carlyle, by contrast, leans more on traditional private equity and secondaries, where performance fees and realizations are lumpier and more sensitive to the exit environment.
Growth drivers also differ. Apollo has emphasized investment-grade private credit, data-center and AI infrastructure financing, and retirement-solutions expansion, supported by over $1 trillion in AUM. Carlyle's story centers on a fundraising "super cycle," margin expansion toward its 2028 targets, and strength in AlpInvest and global credit. Risk profiles diverge accordingly: Apollo carries concentration in credit and insurance but benefits from recurring fee streams, while Carlyle offers a diversified, asset-light franchise but remains exposed to private equity realization timing.
On momentum and sentiment, Apollo's recent pullback reflects valuation digestion after a strong multi-year run, whereas Carlyle's discount to its analyst target reflects ongoing margin and earnings-volatility concerns. Sector exposure and market positioning thus make each name appealing to different investor profiles — Apollo to those favoring scale and credit durability, Carlyle to those seeking a potential re-rating as its transformation matures.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings durability, and the stability of its revenue base, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Apollo Global Management (APO) in the current environment. Apollo's larger AUM base, recurring credit and retirement-related earnings, and record fee-related earnings provide a steadier fundamental foundation than Carlyle's more realization-dependent profile. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Carlyle's discounted valuation and accelerating fundraising momentum present catalysts that could narrow the gap if execution remains on track. The AI's preference reflects a tilt toward stability and visible catalysts rather than a judgment on long-term absolute returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APO is a Hold and CG is a Hold.
APO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for APO entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 144 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 112 of the 144 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APO as a result. In 52 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
APO moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for APO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 60 cases where APO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APO just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where APO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The 50-day moving average for APO moved above the 200-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APO advanced for three days, in 251 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
APO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.584) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). P/E Ratio (42.349) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.446) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.062) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. APO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CG in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 08, 2026
CG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 27 of 33 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CG as a result. In 57 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for CG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CG's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 241 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
CG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.687) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). P/E Ratio (41.156) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
APO | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 77 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CG's Valuation (12) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (15). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Profit vs Risk Rating (54) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CG (100). This means that APO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (88). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (77). This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (10). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
| APO | CG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while CG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- APO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APO (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.28% price change this week, while CG (@Investment Managers) price change was -4.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -3.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.87%.
Reported Earning Dates
APO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-3.42% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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APO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APO has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APO jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.