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APO vs CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: APO is the favored ticker in this comparison, reflecting stronger scale, diversification, and relative stability over CG in the current environment.
- APO operates at roughly double the scale of CG, with total assets under management (AUM, the total value of assets the firm manages for clients) above $1 trillion versus about $485 billion.
- APO benefits from a more diversified model, including its Athene retirement-services business, while CG carries greater concentration in private equity and more volatile performance-linked earnings.
- Both names have declined year-to-date, but CG has underperformed more significantly, reflecting a larger drawdown relative to its alternative-asset manager peers.
- Explore more details with APO Major News and APO Today's Price Move, as well as CG Major News and CG Today's Price Move.
- For automated, data-driven trade ideas across these and other tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors comparing alternative asset managers often weigh scale, diversification, and earnings quality when deciding where to allocate capital. Apollo Global Management (APO) and The Carlyle Group (CG) are two of the most prominent publicly traded names in this space, yet they differ meaningfully in business mix and recent momentum. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors and traders focused on financial services, private credit, private equity, and wealth management, as well as those seeking exposure to durable fee-based revenue streams versus more cyclical performance-linked returns. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which profile may be better suited to a given strategy in today's environment.
APO Overview and Recent Performance
Apollo Global Management (APO) is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, with total AUM above $1 trillion and roughly $858 billion in fee-earning AUM. The firm operates through two core segments: asset management, spanning credit, private equity, and real assets, and retirement services through its Athene insurance platform, which provides a stable, long-duration capital base. In recent weeks, the stock has traded well below its 52-week high, and it remains down by a double-digit percentage year-to-date, reflecting broader pressure on alternative asset managers amid shifting interest-rate expectations and concerns around fund deployment and monetization. Sentiment has also been shaped by reports of private credit redemption pressures and related portfolio-level discussions. Analysts have nevertheless maintained a predominantly positive consensus, citing Apollo's scale, its leadership in private credit, and the recurring nature of its fee-related earnings.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
The Carlyle Group (CG) is a global investment firm that deploys private capital across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest, its investment-solutions arm. The firm reported total AUM of roughly $485 billion and fee-earning AUM of about $334 billion, supported by record inflows and record fee-related earnings in its most recent quarter. In recent weeks, however, the stock has traded near the lower end of its 52-week range and is down more sharply year-to-date than many peers. This reflects investor concerns about margin compression, a year-over-year decline in reported revenue and earnings, and greater sensitivity to the timing of performance fees and asset realizations. Carlyle has emphasized a fundraising "super cycle," a larger buyback authorization, and a higher dividend yield, but market sentiment has remained cautious as the firm works through a transition toward more recurring, fee-driven revenue.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most significant contrast between the two firms is scale and diversification. APO manages more than twice the AUM of CG and pairs its asset-management business with a large retirement-services platform, which tends to generate steadier, more predictable fee income. CG, by contrast, is more concentrated in private equity and relies more heavily on performance-linked revenues and realizations, making its earnings more sensitive to market cycles and exit timing. On growth drivers, Apollo is anchored by its dominant private-credit franchise, while Carlyle is leaning on its AlpInvest solutions business and wealth-management buildout. From a risk perspective, both face private-credit redemption concerns and interest-rate headwinds, but Carlyle's higher yield and lower valuation partly reflect greater earnings volatility. In terms of market sentiment, analyst consensus is positive on both, yet Apollo's larger scale and steadier income profile have supported comparatively better relative performance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor APO over CG in the current environment. Apollo's substantially larger asset base, its retirement-services business, and its leadership in private credit provide a more stable earnings foundation, while Carlyle's heavier reliance on performance fees and realizations introduces greater variability. Although both stocks have declined year-to-date, Apollo has demonstrated comparatively more resilient relative performance and benefits from broader business diversification. This assessment reflects probabilistic, model-driven analysis rather than a guaranteed outcome, and market conditions could shift the balance between these two names over time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APO is a Hold and CG is a StrongBuy.
APO's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for APO moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on APO as a result. In 66 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APO just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where APO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +3.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APO advanced for three days, in 247 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for APO moved below the 200-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
APO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for APO entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.598) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (42.063) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.446) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.062) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CG's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for CG moved out of oversold territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CG as a result. In 56 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +5.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 231 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
CG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.791) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (40.653) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
APO | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 98 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
APO's Valuation (83) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (88). This means that APO’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CG (98). This means that APO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (88). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
CG's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (69). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (6). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to APO’s over the last 12 months.
| APO | CG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 21 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- APO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
APO (@Investment Managers) experienced а +4.45% price change this week, while CG (@Investment Managers) price change was +5.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
APO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.18% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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APO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APO has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APO jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.