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AWK vs MSEX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Water Works (AWK) vs. Middlesex Water (MSEX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AWK and MSEX are regulated water utilities offering similar dividend yields around 2.8%, appealing for income-focused investors.
- AWK, with a market cap of $24.9 billion, dwarfs MSEX's $946 million, providing greater scale and liquidity.
- Recent quarters saw slight earnings misses for both, but AWK announced an 8.2% dividend hike and a proposed merger, boosting sentiment.
- MSEX shows stronger one-year returns at 16.75% versus AWK's 10.82%, amid steady regional growth.
- Year-to-date performance is comparable, with both around 1.7%, reflecting sector stability in recent market activity.
- AWK's lower beta of 0.73 (a measure of volatility relative to the market) suggests relatively lower risk.
Introduction
American Water Works (AWK) and Middlesex Water (MSEX) operate in the essential water utilities sector, providing regulated services across multiple U.S. regions. This comparison highlights their relative performance, financial metrics, and market positioning amid recent economic shifts. Investors seeking defensive holdings with reliable dividends, or traders eyeing sector momentum, will find value in understanding contrasts in scale, growth drivers, and recent developments. Both stocks offer stability in volatile markets, but differing sizes and catalysts influence their trajectories.
American Water Works (AWK) Overview and Recent Performance
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is the largest U.S. publicly traded water and wastewater utility, serving over 14 million people nationwide. Its stock trades around $127, within a 52-week range of $121-$151, reflecting resilience despite broader market pressures. Recent market activity shows year-to-date gains of 1.73% and one-year returns of 10.82%. Key influences include a first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) miss of $1.01 versus estimates, offset by revenue growth to $1.21 billion and an 8.2% dividend increase to $3.58 annually (yield 2.81%). A proposed $63 billion merger with Essential Utilities and reaffirmed 2026 guidance have supported sentiment, alongside infrastructure investments. Trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) stands at 22.59, with a beta of 0.73 indicating lower volatility.
Middlesex Water (MSEX) Overview and Recent Performance
Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) delivers water and wastewater services primarily in New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Shares hover near $51, in a 52-week range of $44-$62. Performance mirrors the sector with year-to-date returns of 1.67% and stronger one-year gains of 16.75%. Recent weeks featured first-quarter EPS of $0.57 (slightly below estimates) and revenue up 10% year-over-year to $48.7 million, driven by higher demand and rates. A quarterly dividend declaration of $1.42 annually (yield 2.79%) underscores payout consistency. The company appointed a new chief accounting officer, signaling operational focus. Trailing P/E is 21.22, with return on equity (ROE) at 9.22% and debt-to-equity of 85%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both AWK and MSEX thrive on regulated monopolies in water supply, but AWK's national footprint contrasts MSEX's regional focus, enabling larger infrastructure scale ($48 billion plan) versus MSEX's targeted expansions. Growth drivers differ: AWK leverages M&A (mergers and acquisitions) like the Essential deal, while MSEX benefits from steady rate hikes and consumption growth. Recent momentum favors MSEX on one-year returns, but AWK offers superior liquidity and analyst targets ($138 vs. $60). Risk profiles show AWK's lower beta versus MSEX's higher debt load; sentiment tilts to AWK on dividend growth amid sector stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward AWK due to its trend consistency, scale advantages, recent dividend hike, and merger catalyst positioning it for stronger relative stability and upside potential in the utilities sector. While MSEX exhibits solid momentum, AWK's broader exposure and reaffirmed guidance suggest higher probability of outperformance over coming quarters.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AWK is a Hold and MSEX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AWK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMSEX’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AWK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MSEX’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AWK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MSEX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AWK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MSEX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AWK (@Water Utilities) experienced а +0.50% price change this week, while MSEX (@Water Utilities) price change was -0.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Water Utilities industry was -0.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AWK is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
MSEX is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Water Utilities (-0.42% weekly)Water utilities operate water treatment plants, and/or distribute water to residential and commercial customers. Companies operating in this industry are largely responsible for the safe and timely distribution of water. While most water systems are local or regional, some of the companies might have operations across several states. The industry is expected to be closely monitored by regulators for quality checks on the water being distributed. Investing in upgrading infrastructure is a major factor in bolstering the supply of clean/safe-to-use water. Given the absolute necessity of water in our lives, the industry is largely non-cyclical. American Water Works Company, Inc., Aqua America, Inc., American States Water Co. and California Water Service Group are some of the major water utilities companies in the U.S.
| AWK | MSEX | AWK / MSEX | |
| Capitalization | 24.4B | 970M | 2,515% |
| EBITDA | 2.96B | 96.5M | 3,067% |
| Gain YTD | -2.821 | 4.654 | -61% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.18 | 21.69 | 102% |
| Revenue | 5.21B | 199M | 2,616% |
| Total Cash | 137M | 2.04M | 6,716% |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 428M | 3,668% |
AWK | MSEX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 75 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AWK's Valuation (58) in the Water Utilities industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MSEX (92). This means that AWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MSEX’s over the last 12 months.
AWK's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as MSEX (100). This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to MSEX’s over the last 12 months.
AWK's SMR Rating (71) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as MSEX (75). This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to MSEX’s over the last 12 months.
MSEX's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (59). This means that MSEX’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
MSEX's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (68). This means that MSEX’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
| AWK | MSEX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 32% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 47% | 16 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 5 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 45% |
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AWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AWK has been closely correlated with WTRG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AWK jumps, then WTRG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AWK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWK | 100% | -0.27% | ||
| WTRG - AWK | 89% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| AWR - AWK | 71% Closely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CWT - AWK | 68% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| MSEX - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| HTO - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.48% | ||
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MSEX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSEX has been closely correlated with AWR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MSEX jumps, then AWR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MSEX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSEX | 100% | +0.42% | ||
| AWR - MSEX | 76% Closely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CWT - MSEX | 70% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| YORW - MSEX | 69% Closely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| HTO - MSEX | 67% Closely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| WTRG - MSEX | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.68% | ||
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