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BFC vs RBB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank First Corporation (BFC) vs. RBB Bancorp (RBB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different regional footprints: BFC (Bank First Corporation) is a Wisconsin-focused community bank, while RBB (RBB Bancorp) operates in California and New York through Royal Business Bank.
- Growth drivers diverge: BFC's momentum stems from its recent acquisition of Centre 1 Bancorp, while RBB's is driven by organic loan growth and improving credit quality.
- Relative performance: RBB has outperformed the broader market with a roughly 24% year-to-date gain, while BFC has delivered a solid return near 21% over the same period.
- Earnings momentum: Both banks have posted earnings beats in recent quarters, with RBB's latest results exceeding consensus estimates by a wide margin.
- Risk profiles differ: RBB carries meaningful commercial real estate (CRE) exposure, while BFC is navigating post-merger integration costs.
Introduction
Investors evaluating regional bank stocks often weigh growth potential against balance-sheet risk and geographic concentration. This stock comparison examines BFC and RBB, two community-focused bank holding companies with contrasting market positioning. BFC serves Wisconsin communities, while RBB targets Asian-American business communities across California and New York. Both institutions have recently demonstrated improving profitability, yet their catalysts, asset mixes, and risk exposures are distinct. For traders assessing relative performance and for longer-term investors comparing community banking franchises, understanding these differences can help clarify which profile aligns with a given market view.
BFC Overview and Recent Performance
Bank First Corporation is the holding company for Bank First, N.A., a Wisconsin-based community bank offering commercial, mortgage, and consumer lending alongside deposit and treasury services. The company's market positioning shifted meaningfully in recent months after it completed the acquisition of Centre 1 Bancorp, adding roughly $1.48 billion in assets and increasing its total asset base by about 33%. This transaction established a new "Stateline Region" and brought wealth management and trust capabilities into the franchise.
Recent market activity has reflected optimism around the deal's expected earnings accretion. BFC reported strong net interest income (NII) growth in recent quarters, with a net interest margin (NIM) near 4%, and management has paired the expansion with shareholder-friendly moves, including a dividend increase and a share repurchase program of up to $60 million. The stock has risen sharply over the past year, though analysts note the shares trade at a premium valuation. Sentiment has been supported by capital returns and improving fundamentals, tempered by integration expenses and modest returns on equity.
RBB Overview and Recent Performance
RBB Bancorp is a Los Angeles-based bank holding company whose principal subsidiary, Royal Business Bank, serves the financial needs of Asian-American communities, with a loan book concentrated in single-family residential mortgages and commercial real estate (CRE). The bank also maintains a presence in the New York market. In recent quarters, RBB has emphasized a turnaround in earning power, credit quality, and funding costs.
RBB's latest quarterly results exceeded consensus estimates, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising about 25% sequentially and net interest margin expanding to 3.16%. Loan growth returned on an annualized basis in the low double digits, and nonperforming assets (NPAs) declined, pushing the nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio to 0.55% of total loans. Management has also reduced wholesale funding to under 2% of deposits while continuing share repurchases. The stock has gained roughly 45% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, reflecting improving asset quality and earnings trajectory.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two banks is their business mix and geographic exposure. BFC operates in Wisconsin with a diversified commercial-and-consumer lending model, while RBB carries a loan portfolio heavily weighted toward residential mortgages and CRE across California and New York. This means RBB is more sensitive to coastal real-estate conditions and CRE credit trends, whereas BFC is more exposed to Midwestern economic activity.
Growth catalysts also differ. BFC's recent scale expansion came through M&A (mergers and acquisitions), which introduces integration and cost-synergy execution risk but offers immediate earnings accretion. RBB, by contrast, is growing organically through loan origination and a new San Francisco Bay Area loan production office, paired with a multi-year credit-quality recovery. On valuation, BFC trades at a higher earnings multiple and lower dividend yield, while RBB screens as a value-and-turnaround story with a smaller market capitalization and higher volatility. Market sentiment toward both has improved, but RBB's stronger recent price momentum and estimate beats stand in contrast to BFC's steadier, capital-return-focused narrative.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RBB in the current environment. The combination of consistent earnings beats, expanding net interest margin, declining nonperforming assets, and strong relative price momentum suggests a more favorable trend profile. RBB's improving credit metrics and organic loan growth provide tangible catalysts, while BFC's valuation premium and near-term integration work may temper its near-term upside. That said, BFC's steadier capital returns and established profitability make it a lower-volatility alternative. This probabilistic assessment reflects current trend consistency and positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and either stock could outperform depending on how credit conditions and rate expectations evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BFC is a Buy and RBB is a Buy.
BFC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
BFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 39 cases where BFC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where BFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BFC advanced for three days, in 176 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BFC as a result. In 48 of 105 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BFC turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
BFC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BFC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 23 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for BFC entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.922) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (18.471) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. BFC's P/S Ratio (7.358) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.738).
RBB in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026
RBB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 43 cases where RBB's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RBB's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 57 cases where RBB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RBB as a result. In 48 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RBB just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where RBB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +3.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RBB advanced for three days, in 174 of 272 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
RBB moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RBB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RBB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for RBB entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.833) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (10.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.453) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RBB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RBB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BFC | RBB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RBB's Valuation (38) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BFC (94). This means that RBB’s stock grew somewhat faster than BFC’s over the last 12 months.
BFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Regional Banks industry is significantly better than the same rating for RBB (78). This means that BFC’s stock grew significantly faster than RBB’s over the last 12 months.
BFC's SMR Rating (30) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBB (43). This means that BFC’s stock grew similarly to RBB’s over the last 12 months.
RBB's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (47). This means that RBB’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
BFC's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RBB (71). This means that BFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than RBB’s over the last 12 months.
| BFC | RBB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BFC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RBB’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- BFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RBB’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BFC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RBB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BFC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RBB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BFC (@Regional Banks) experienced а -2.80% price change this week, while RBB (@Regional Banks) price change was +3.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
BFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
RBB is expected to report earnings on Jan 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.86% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BFC has been closely correlated with IBCP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BFC jumps, then IBCP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC | 100% | -4.25% | ||
| IBCP - BFC | 77% Closely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| SRCE - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| BY - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| PGC - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CTBI - BFC | 74% Closely correlated | -9.26% | ||
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